Pels missed a game winner. Close upset tank win
2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
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Schrödinger's Gerbil
Member
I'm curious: Can anyone guess the odds that a #1 draft pick will lead the team that drafted it to 1) an NBA championship or 2) an NBA final?
Answer: 1) Since 2000, 8.3%. 2) Since 2000, 20.8%. The only #1 picks to win an NBA championship with the team that drafted it since 2000 are LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The only #1 picks to go to a finals with the team that drafted it since 2000 are James, Irving, Kenyon Martin, and DeAndre Ayton. (Percentage calculated by the number of #1 picks winning a championship or going to the finals with the team that drafted it divided by the number of #1 picks over the time period.)
The odds that draft picks 1-5 will lead the team that drafted it to an NBA championship or NBA final since 2000 are 5% and 10.8%. Besides Lebron, Kyrie, Martin, and Ayton, they include Durant (#2); Harden, Brown, Tatum, and Luka (#3); Westbrook and Tristan Thompson (#4, although Thompson was a role player at that point); and Wade (#5).
(Quick caveat: I did the calculations quickly, so I may be off a bit here or there, but it should not affect the general order of magnitude.)
Conclusion: By historical standards, the odds that Cooper Flagg or any other person drafted by the Jazz as part of their structural teardown tank will lead the Jazz to an NBA championship are remote. The odds that they lead the Jazz to the NBA finals are no better than 1 in 5.
Now, we come to the cost-benefit question. Are 5-6 years (likely duration) of sucking worth it for such paltry odds? For those who tout Wembenyama as a successful structural tank, keep in mind that 1) there's no guarantee the Spurs will win anything, and 2) the Spurs' average winning percentage for the last five years was 37%. Five years is not an unsubstantial amount of time for a fanbase to suffer through lousy basketball. Are Jazz fans prepared for the possibility of another 3-4 years, and possibly more, of sucking for the remote odds that hitting on a lottery pick will lead to a championship or even finals appearance?
Of course, this analysis omits any discussion of opportunity cost, i.e., what are the odds of success of alternative strategies? If we knew them, tanking might actually be the best strategy. Unfortunately, we can't answer this other than to say that no other team has won an NBA championship as the result of a structural tanking strategy. Every other team that's won an NBA championship has followed a different strategy to get there. Thus, the question: Why the irrational, exuberant confidence that the structural tanking strategy is the best (or even only) strategy to put the Jazz on the championship path?
Answer: 1) Since 2000, 8.3%. 2) Since 2000, 20.8%. The only #1 picks to win an NBA championship with the team that drafted it since 2000 are LeBron James and Kyrie Irving. The only #1 picks to go to a finals with the team that drafted it since 2000 are James, Irving, Kenyon Martin, and DeAndre Ayton. (Percentage calculated by the number of #1 picks winning a championship or going to the finals with the team that drafted it divided by the number of #1 picks over the time period.)
The odds that draft picks 1-5 will lead the team that drafted it to an NBA championship or NBA final since 2000 are 5% and 10.8%. Besides Lebron, Kyrie, Martin, and Ayton, they include Durant (#2); Harden, Brown, Tatum, and Luka (#3); Westbrook and Tristan Thompson (#4, although Thompson was a role player at that point); and Wade (#5).
(Quick caveat: I did the calculations quickly, so I may be off a bit here or there, but it should not affect the general order of magnitude.)
Conclusion: By historical standards, the odds that Cooper Flagg or any other person drafted by the Jazz as part of their structural teardown tank will lead the Jazz to an NBA championship are remote. The odds that they lead the Jazz to the NBA finals are no better than 1 in 5.
Now, we come to the cost-benefit question. Are 5-6 years (likely duration) of sucking worth it for such paltry odds? For those who tout Wembenyama as a successful structural tank, keep in mind that 1) there's no guarantee the Spurs will win anything, and 2) the Spurs' average winning percentage for the last five years was 37%. Five years is not an unsubstantial amount of time for a fanbase to suffer through lousy basketball. Are Jazz fans prepared for the possibility of another 3-4 years, and possibly more, of sucking for the remote odds that hitting on a lottery pick will lead to a championship or even finals appearance?
Of course, this analysis omits any discussion of opportunity cost, i.e., what are the odds of success of alternative strategies? If we knew them, tanking might actually be the best strategy. Unfortunately, we can't answer this other than to say that no other team has won an NBA championship as the result of a structural tanking strategy. Every other team that's won an NBA championship has followed a different strategy to get there. Thus, the question: Why the irrational, exuberant confidence that the structural tanking strategy is the best (or even only) strategy to put the Jazz on the championship path?
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Ok but what’s the % of a team NOT having a top 5 pick and reaching the Finals?
AND being a small market team.
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Member
That's an excellent question. If I can find the time, I'll look into it, or someone else can.
Just to be clear, my point is not that drafting in the top 5 is not important—all else equal, higher draft picks are better than lower draft picks—it's the uncritical assertion by many that a structural teardown/tank and serial high lottery drafting is the single best path for the Jazz to take to an NBA championship (which was the stated goal of the Jazz FO motivating their decision to tear down a competitive, perennial playoff team). If the goal is to field a competitive team that routinely competes in the playoffs, with chances of deep runs (i.e., 2nd or 3rd rounds) now and then, the discussion becomes a very different one. However, the benefits should not be considered in isolation of the costs (i.e., how many years of sucking are worth it?).
My contention is that the prevailing groupthink around the virtues of the tanking strategy is foreclosing consideration of other potential, effective strategies. All I'm asking for is an open, honest discussion about the virtues of tanking, particularly a structural teardown. I had hoped that the pro-tankers here would be open to such a discussion, but it appears that they are not. Rather than engage, they attacked. I'm a de facto troll, not someone with an alternative point of view. I've even conceded the possibility that a structural teardown tank is, indeed, the best strategy in certain cases, and may be for the Jazz. I'm just skeptical about it. But even this concession is insufficient to induce good faith engagement from the pro-tankers. It's tanking uber alles. Sigh.
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I think your stats is forgetting 1 thing. We’re not just looking for 1 player. When you tank for 3-4 seasons hopefully we get at least 3-4 decent talent to build around.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
This was the most embarrassing failed tank game I've ever seen in January.
Resting Walker Kessler and the rest of the team to try to throw a game in January and still winning...
Resting Walker Kessler and the rest of the team to try to throw a game in January and still winning...
I think this is close to disingenuous or at least strongly misinformed.
The Jazz have never had problems getting "decent talent." What we have arguably lacked and what virtually all the pro-tankers have been droning on about for the last few years is a number #1 guy, an all-Pro, MVP candidate type. Someone better than Mitchell or Gobert.
Flagg could be a Lebron-type player. You risk the negatives of the tank for that.
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Member
He could be, but the odds weigh strongly against it. (I follow his career at Duke only sporadically and superficially. I used to be a huge college b-ball fan--go Tarheels--but now find college basketball boring and difficult to watch.)
I've been reading this board for many years. I vividly recall the discussion back in 2014, about how this was an incredibly strong draft class, and how Andrew Wiggins was a generational, transformative talent. And yet.... The only legitimate "superstars" from this draft were Embid and Jokic. The former was the prize of a years-long structural tank job that has produced nothing better than a second-round playoff exit. Lesson learned: Skepticism about the transformative potential of an individual prospect and even an entire draft class is warranted.
Even if he's all that, the odds weigh against us getting Flagg.
I hope I'm wrong. I'd love nothing better than the Jazz landing a true superstar facilitated by the strategic tank that takes us to the promised land. I'd gladly come back to this board and take the ridicule and mocking for my skepticism. Again, however, from where I sit, the odds weigh strongly against it.
FrenchJazzFa
Well-Known Member
Just look the last 4 min of Charlotte- Suns. Really nice tanking effort from hornets, they stay in front almost all games then suddenly, miss lay-up, getting in defense as slow as possible but not too obvious. This team know how to tank despite having much more talent than us.
Strutter
Well-Known Member
Let's take a look.
In this list, I'm only looking at players that were actually important to their teams. Not counting ring-hunting vets on the bench or whatever. You can argue some of these picks if you want, but the only player that would change the final percentage is Bogut on the Warriors. I counted him in 2015, but not in 2016.
2000: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Pacers had no top 5 picks.
2001: Lakers had Shaq (1st). 76ers had Iverson (1st) and Mutumbo (4th)
2002: Lakers had Shaq (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd), Keith Van Horn (2nd), and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2003: Spurs had Duncan (1st) and Robinson (1st). Nets had Kidd (2nd) and Kenyon Martin (1st)
2004: Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd). Lakers had Shaq (1st)
2005: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Pistons had Rasheed (4th) and Billups (3rd).
2006: Heat had Shaq (1st) and Wade (5th). Mavericks had no top 5 picks.
2007: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Cavs had LeBron (1st).
2008: Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th). Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd).
2009: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Magic had Dwight (1st).
2010: Lakers had Odom (4th) and Pau Gasol (3rd). Celtics had KG (5th) and Allen (5th).
2011: Mavs had Chandler (2nd) and Kidd (2nd). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2012: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Thunder had Durant (2nd), Harden (3rd), and Westbrook (4th).
2013: Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th). Spurs had Duncan (1st).
2014: Spurs had Duncan (1st). Heat had Wade (5th), LeBron (1st), and Bosh (4th).
2015: Warriors had Bogut (1st)--kind of a stretch on this one. Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2016: Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th). Warriors had no top 5 picks--gonna stop counting Bogut for this one.
2017: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st), Irving, (1st) and Love (5th).
2018: Warriors had Durant (2nd). Cavs had LeBron (1st) and Love (5th).
2019: Raptors had no top 5 picks. Warriors had Durant (2nd) and Cousins (5th).
2020: Lakers had LeBron (1st), and Davis (1st). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2021: Bucks had no top 5 picks. Suns had Chris Paul (4th) and Ayton (1st).
2022: Warriors had Wiggins (1st). Celtics had Brown (3rd), Horford (3rd), and Tatum (3rd).
2023: Nuggets had Gordon (4th). Heat had no top 5 picks.
2024: Celtics had Brown (3rd), Tatum (3rd), and Porzingis (4th). Mavs had Doncic (3rd) and Irving (1st).
So over 25 years, that's 7 teams out of 50 that had at least one top 5 pick, or 14%. Honestly, a lot of those teams had 1st overall picks.
Keep in mind that one thing this list can't account for is how teams might have leveraged top 5 picks to get other talent.
Hardy should run mandatory tanking drills before each game. The last five to not make a shot should be the starting 5.
Tremendous Upside
Well-Known Member
Other teams seem to have no problem finding building blocks in the top 10.
Are you kidding me? They sat Lauri with a fake injury, "rested" Kessler (LOL), Collins has apparently dropped off the face of the earth and there's all kinds of G-League level players out there instead.
As has been said time and time again, the players are going to compete hard, they're fighting for their professional futures and have no incentive to tank. On the contrary.
WTF do people want.
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So isn't this evidence for tanking?
Strutter
Well-Known Member
I wasn't trying to make a statement one way or the other. Just thought it was a good question and thought I'd lay out the data.
Well after seeing the data what do you think?
Darkwing Duck
Well-Known Member
Data suggests the number 1 pick the Jazz would hypothetically get would win a title with another team.
Only Kyrie Irving since Duncan, and James only one after leaving and coming back.