What's new
By:

2024-2025 Tank Race

SoberasHotRod said:
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
Click to expand...
Lol I feel like #3 is going to get it.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
Click to expand...
If you flip a coin 10 times and the first 9 are heads the odds of the 10th flip being heads is still 50/50. The odds only matter before you start flipping the coin the first time.

What we need is possible picks 6 and 7 to start showing out more. . .
 
framer said:
If you flip a coin 10 times and the first 9 are heads the odds of the 10th flip being heads is still 50/50. The odds only matter before you start flipping the coin the first time.

What we need is possible picks 6 and 7 to start showing out more. . .
Click to expand...
This is true from a logical standpoint. But the real variable that changes the outcome is if we're part of the equation, as it doesn't involve mathematical models. When there's a three-way tie, a coin is flipped and it's ours if it lands on the edge. So whether the three teams with worst records have the best odds or whether some other draft position is "due" for the first pick really depends on which position the Jazz are in. The part of the algorithm that says "is the team the Jazz?" and the answer is no then points to an increased probability.
 
infection said:
This is true from a logical standpoint. But the real variable that changes the outcome is if we're part of the equation, as it doesn't involve mathematical models. When there's a three-way tie, a coin is flipped and it's ours if it lands on the edge. So whether the three teams with worst records have the best odds or whether some other draft position is "due" for the first pick really depends on which position the Jazz are in. The part of the algorithm that says "is the team the Jazz?" and the answer is no then points to an increased probability.
Click to expand...

Of course, the laws of probability are completely voided whenever the Jazz are involved in a lottery positioning coinflip. Probably best to avoid one of those. . .
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I understand that each draft is an independent event, but if I had to bet I would say that the number one pick will go to the 1st, 4th, 5th, or 6th worst teams. The combined odds for those teams to win it is almost 50%, but none of those records have won in the 6 year history.
Click to expand...
Maybe we can go on a long winning streak to finish 6th and then get the first pick. ;) If nothing else, it would be quite entertaining to see all the see all the switching emotions in the fanbase.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Would be very content with 2. LFG Hornets and Pelicans.

(It also seems like teams with the worst record get smitten by the basketball gods)
Click to expand...
Yeah, I’d be happy with the 2nd worst record as well. But obviously I’d prefer the worst record. I mean, we’re in the tanking business. Might as well try to ensure we don't end up with a worse pick than fifth. 17 games left. It’s a four-horse race now. The lottery night will be nerve-racking as hell.
 
framer said:
Of course, the laws of probability are completely voided whenever the Jazz are involved in a lottery positioning coinflip. Probably best to avoid one of those. . .
Click to expand...

mate all this means is that the law of averages is overwhelmingly with us. Fear not, we are going to win the lottery on May 12th. I will be burning one of my daughters alive at the stake the day before as a sacrifice to the lord of light to secure the proper result.
 
NUMBERICA said:
Sincere. I want Minnesota at the 9th seed real bad.
Click to expand...

Minnesota has the 4th easiest schedule and Sacramento has the 2nd most difficult remaining schedule + 3 games to makeup, it's going to be tough.

If Utah plays them straight (I think they will), then that increases the difficulty of their strength of schedule, so that's at least something. Although if Utah is going to win those two games you probably want NOP to win to give us some more cushion.

Sorry, I'm obviously giving this too much thought.
 
NUMBERICA said:
This is gonna sound crazy but I think I might prefer the Clippers winning over the Pelicans tonight.
Click to expand...
Definitely not bad either way, but I don't have any faith in the Kings making up 3 games to push them down to 9th sadly.

Legitimately frustrating that Mavs/Suns **** the bed so historically this year
 
Cruel irony would be that we tank aggressively to get the best lottery odds but a team with worse odds ends up winning. We'll be wishing we had tried to win more games if this happens. The odds of not winning the lottery significantly exceed those of winning. I confidently predict that we WILL NOT win the lottery and WILL NOT draft Cooper Flagg. Anyone who understands odds would take that bet any day; yet, our strategy for team building hinges crucially on this low probability outcome.
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
Cruel irony would be that we tank aggressively to get the best lottery odds but a team with worse odds ends up winning. We'll be wishing we had tried to win more games if this happens. The odds of not winning the lottery significantly exceed those of winning. I confidently predict that we WILL NOT win the lottery and WILL NOT draft Cooper Flagg. Anyone who understands odds would take that bet any day; yet, our strategy for team building hinges crucially on this low probability outcome.
Click to expand...
You can't guarantee a specific outcome by maximizing the odds, but this line of reasoning makes absolutely no sense. We're not choosing to tank rather than winning, we're tanking because the team isn't talented enough to have another option. There's no way we'll look back at this season and wish we'd won more games, that's completely asinine.
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
Cruel irony would be that we tank aggressively to get the best lottery odds but a team with worse odds ends up winning. We'll be wishing we had tried to win more games if this happens. The odds of not winning the lottery significantly exceed those of winning. I confidently predict that we WILL NOT win the lottery and WILL NOT draft Cooper Flagg. Anyone who understands odds would take that bet any day; yet, our strategy for team building hinges crucially on this low probability outcome.
Click to expand...

not really The team with the worst odds overwhelmingly has a chance to pick in the top 3, maybe 4 if you're unlucky In this draft it sounds like you're going to get a super good player in that range. It's not just for one player. It's to get some kind of high end talent. I don't know how this is a mystery to you Are our odds of getting the top pick quite low ? sure Are they better than my odds of banging J-Lo ?? probs. Will we be pretty much certain to get a really good player ?? yeah pretty much

point is it's worth it even once and this is a good year to do it.

got a better idea ??
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top