fishonjazz
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2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
- Start date
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
And yet ...
You can't guarantee a specific outcome by maximizing the odds, but this line of reasoning makes absolutely no sense. We're not choosing to tank rather than winning, we're tanking because the team isn't talented enough to have another option. There's no way we'll look back at this season and wish we'd won more games, that's completely asinine.
FalseFlagg K
Well-Known Member
not really The team with the worst odds overwhelmingly has a chance to pick in the top 3, maybe 4 if you're unlucky In this draft it sounds like you're going to get a super good player in that range. It's not just for one player. It's to get some kind of high end talent. I don't know how this is a mystery to you Are our odds of getting the top pick quite low ? sure Are they better than my odds of banging J-Lo ?? probs. Will we be pretty much certain to get a really good player ?? yeah pretty much
point is it's worth it even once and this is a good year to do it.
got a better idea ??
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Pretty much locked up the best odds tonight.
cmrd
Active Member
and yet what
Jaanipoeg
Well-Known Member
Who do people think is the most likely to try to tank in the West next year besides the Jazz most likely?
Portland is looking too spunky, San Antonio will hinge on Wembys health but is looking too good, no chance New Orleans has another season this bad and Zion is looking good. Phoenix and Clippers are the most reasonable tear downs but don't own their own pick next year. Sacramento probably doesn't have the stomach for another rebuild right now. Dallas will have an off-season to follow.
Probably already been discussed, but tanking seems very easy in the West next year without having to be too grimy most likely. Hate tanking, but the situation with a stacked draft are likely way too good to give up
Portland is looking too spunky, San Antonio will hinge on Wembys health but is looking too good, no chance New Orleans has another season this bad and Zion is looking good. Phoenix and Clippers are the most reasonable tear downs but don't own their own pick next year. Sacramento probably doesn't have the stomach for another rebuild right now. Dallas will have an off-season to follow.
Probably already been discussed, but tanking seems very easy in the West next year without having to be too grimy most likely. Hate tanking, but the situation with a stacked draft are likely way too good to give up
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
And yet a lot of people seem to be putting a lot of hope on getting Flagg, notwithstanding the extremely low odds of this outcome.
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
We're tanking because the Jazz FO decided to blow up a perennial playoff team. We're not talented enough to win precisely because of this decision made precisely to ensure that we wouldn't have the talent to win and thus would not have another option.
I'm not arguing that we shouldn't maximize the odds of winning the lottery given that we're on this path, this obviously makes sense from an ex-ante strategic perspective. I'm merely saying that once the pingpong balls are drawn, we may end up ruing that we followed this strategy IF the lottery winner is, similar to Atlanta in 2024, a team with lower to significantly lower odds of winning.
This is a purely after-the-fact scenario, but one, if it occurs, there's most definitely the possibility that we wish we had won more games.
It may even be the case that a "bad" Jazz win during the regular season, which pushes us out of the top 3, is precisely what ends up winning us the lottery.
I'm on record saying that IF we're going to tank, we might as well do it "right" to maximize our odds. But, I realize that there are any number of scenarios that, if they occur, maximizing our odds in this way was not, with hindsight, the winning strategy. I don't see that I'm saying anything controversial. Strikes me as eminently reasonable.
framer
Well-Known Member
I just think of it as we are tanking for the choice between Edgecombe and Johnson. There is a pretty decent shot at getting there. Anything else is gravy. That is the only way you can stay sane.
That being said, I don't like tanking and hope we don't do it next year. Worst case we give up the 9 pick. We already have like 5 guys like whoever you would draft there so I wouldn't cry too hard.
