2024-2025 Tank Race

[HadAnEffectHere]

Pretty much locked up the best odds tonight.

 

[cmrd]

And yet ...

and yet what

 

[Jaanipoeg]

3 win lead on the Pelicans now, top 3 is looking very likely now

If I had to guess how it ends:
20% at #1
35% at #2
35% at #3
10% at #4

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Who do people think is the most likely to try to tank in the West next year besides the Jazz most likely?

Portland is looking too spunky, San Antonio will hinge on Wembys health but is looking too good, no chance New Orleans has another season this bad and Zion is looking good. Phoenix and Clippers are the most reasonable tear downs but don't own their own pick next year. Sacramento probably doesn't have the stomach for another rebuild right now. Dallas will have an off-season to follow.

Probably already been discussed, but tanking seems very easy in the West next year without having to be too grimy most likely. Hate tanking, but the situation with a stacked draft are likely way too good to give up

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

and yet what

And yet a lot of people seem to be putting a lot of hope on getting Flagg, notwithstanding the extremely low odds of this outcome.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

You can't guarantee a specific outcome by maximizing the odds, but this line of reasoning makes absolutely no sense. We're not choosing to tank rather than winning, we're tanking because the team isn't talented enough to have another option. There's no way we'll look back at this season and wish we'd won more games, that's completely asinine.

We're tanking because the Jazz FO decided to blow up a perennial playoff team. We're not talented enough to win precisely because of this decision made precisely to ensure that we wouldn't have the talent to win and thus would not have another option.

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't maximize the odds of winning the lottery given that we're on this path, this obviously makes sense from an ex-ante strategic perspective. I'm merely saying that once the pingpong balls are drawn, we may end up ruing that we followed this strategy IF the lottery winner is, similar to Atlanta in 2024, a team with lower to significantly lower odds of winning.
This is a purely after-the-fact scenario, but one, if it occurs, there's most definitely the possibility that we wish we had won more games.

It may even be the case that a "bad" Jazz win during the regular season, which pushes us out of the top 3, is precisely what ends up winning us the lottery.

I'm on record saying that IF we're going to tank, we might as well do it "right" to maximize our odds. But, I realize that there are any number of scenarios that, if they occur, maximizing our odds in this way was not, with hindsight, the winning strategy. I don't see that I'm saying anything controversial. Strikes me as eminently reasonable.

 

[framer]

We're tanking because the Jazz FO decided to blow up a perennial playoff team. We're not talented enough to win precisely because of this decision made precisely to ensure that we wouldn't have the talent to win and thus would not have another option.

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't maximize the odds of winning the lottery given that we're on this path, this obviously makes sense from an ex-ante strategic perspective. I'm merely saying that once the pingpong balls are drawn, we may end up ruing that we followed this strategy IF the lottery winner is, similar to Atlanta in 2024, a team with lower to significantly lower odds of winning.
This is a purely after-the-fact scenario, but one, if it occurs, there's most definitely the possibility that we wish we had won more games.

It may even be the case that a "bad" Jazz win during the regular season, which pushes us out of the top 3, is precisely what ends up winning us the lottery.

I'm on record saying that IF we're going to tank, we might as well do it "right" to maximize our odds. But, I realize that there are any number of scenarios that, if they occur, maximizing our odds in this way was not, with hindsight, the winning strategy. I don't see that I'm saying anything controversial. Strikes me as eminently reasonable.

I just think of it as we are tanking for the choice between Edgecombe and Johnson. There is a pretty decent shot at getting there. Anything else is gravy. That is the only way you can stay sane.

That being said, I don't like tanking and hope we don't do it next year. Worst case we give up the 9 pick. We already have like 5 guys like whoever you would draft there so I wouldn't cry too hard.

 

[infection]

mate all this means is that the law of averages is overwhelmingly with us. Fear not, we are going to win the lottery on May 12th. I will be burning one of my daughters alive at the stake the day before as a sacrifice to the lord of light to secure the proper result.

Yes, the law of averages. What’s the worst that could happen?

 

[infection]

Also, all the talk over many years (decades) about tanking and cracking down on it is probably a lot like when they cracked down on CBA circumvention with… Minnesota and Joe Smith. Or when they cracked down on flopping by fining… Reggie Evans. This would be a prime time for the league to send a message and crack down on tanking… when it’s us who has the best odds.

 

[mhindy]

We're tanking because the Jazz FO decided to blow up a perennial playoff team. We're not talented enough to win precisely because of this decision made precisely to ensure that we wouldn't have the talent to win and thus would not have another option.

I'm not arguing that we shouldn't maximize the odds of winning the lottery given that we're on this path, this obviously makes sense from an ex-ante strategic perspective. I'm merely saying that once the pingpong balls are drawn, we may end up ruing that we followed this strategy IF the lottery winner is, similar to Atlanta in 2024, a team with lower to significantly lower odds of winning.
This is a purely after-the-fact scenario, but one, if it occurs, there's most definitely the possibility that we wish we had won more games.

It may even be the case that a "bad" Jazz win during the regular season, which pushes us out of the top 3, is precisely what ends up winning us the lottery.

I'm on record saying that IF we're going to tank, we might as well do it "right" to maximize our odds. But, I realize that there are any number of scenarios that, if they occur, maximizing our odds in this way was not, with hindsight, the winning strategy. I don't see that I'm saying anything controversial. Strikes me as eminently reasonable.

We blew up a team going nowhere, with no draft capital, and two stars who hated each other.

Running it back again would have been a ludicrous choice.

 

[Douchebag K]

View attachment 18268

Yes, the law of averages. What’s the worst that could happen?

View attachment 18269

Negative Nellie !!

 

[Flc]

This is true from a logical standpoint. But the real variable that changes the outcome is if we're part of the equation, as it doesn't involve mathematical models. When there's a three-way tie, a coin is flipped and it's ours if it lands on the edge. So whether the three teams with worst records have the best odds or whether some other draft position is "due" for the first pick really depends on which position the Jazz are in. The part of the algorithm that says "is the team the Jazz?" and the answer is no then points to an increased probability.

At the quantum level, we both won and lost the draft.

Schroedinger’s Flagg.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

We blew up a team going nowhere, with no draft capital, and two stars who hated each other.

Running it back again would have been a ludicrous choice.

Ehh, the Jazz had six firsts available to trade after they lost to the Clippers and Ryan Smith instead decided to use those picks to salary dump Favors (who they had massively overpaid the offseason before).

The other thing is that the Jazz purposefully chose to not make the playoffs in 2023 (even after the Mitchell trade) and 2024 and 2025 by not making any moves to improve the roster. The Jazz traded away half of their rotation at the 2023 deadline for one bad draft pick (probably the 19th pick in 2027)

They have chosen intentionally throwing games over being like a 45 win team and thus need to be a title contender after this is over to justify it (but they probably won't).

It's nearly impossible to win a title without going deep into the luxury tax and there's no indication that Smith will do this.

Utah is also a market where it's nearly impossible to win a title as well.

The ownership and market make it much harder to believe there's any plausible path to title contention, making the tanking much odder.

If the Jazz win the lottery back to back years and get Flagg and Peterson, sure, we can then win the title, but the odds of this happening are 2%, lol.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Minnesota has the 4th easiest schedule and Sacramento has the 2nd most difficult remaining schedule + 3 games to makeup, it's going to be tough.

If Utah plays them straight (I think they will), then that increases the difficulty of their strength of schedule, so that's at least something. Although if Utah is going to win those two games you probably want NOP to win to give us some more cushion.

Sorry, I'm obviously giving this too much thought.

Then I am also giving this too much thought. The fact remains that the only way we increase our lottery odds from here is getting another pick in the lottery saying, not to mention the ~6 slots that making the playoffs or not accounts for.

 

[default]

Who do people think is the most likely to try to tank in the West next year besides the Jazz most likely?

Portland is looking too spunky, San Antonio will hinge on Wembys health but is looking too good, no chance New Orleans has another season this bad and Zion is looking good. Phoenix and Clippers are the most reasonable tear downs but don't own their own pick next year. Sacramento probably doesn't have the stomach for another rebuild right now. Dallas will have an off-season to follow.

Probably already been discussed, but tanking seems very easy in the West next year without having to be too grimy most likely. Hate tanking, but the situation with a stacked draft are likely way too good to give up

Dallas?

 

[Flc]

Cruel irony would be that we tank aggressively to get the best lottery odds but a team with worse odds ends up winning. We'll be wishing we had tried to win more games if this happens. The odds of not winning the lottery significantly exceed those of winning. I confidently predict that we WILL NOT win the lottery and WILL NOT draft Cooper Flagg. Anyone who understands odds would take that bet any day; yet, our strategy for team building hinges crucially on this low probability outcome.

Is your name Schroedinger’s Gerbil because you’re both inside and outside of Tremendous Upside’s butthole at the same time?

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

Is your name Schroedinger’s Gerbil because you’re both inside and outside of Tremendous Upside’s butthole at the same time?

Ah, there it is, the personal insult. So very original, yet at the same time, so very tiresome.

I'd only add that your insult makes no sense. What does being a gerbil have to do with being inside and outside of someone's butthole? Projection, per chance?

If you're going to insult someone, at least make an effort to come up with something more clever than this. I mean, it's as if your heart wasn't in it.

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

We blew up a team going nowhere, with no draft capital, and two stars who hated each other.

Running it back again would have been a ludicrous choice.

Who's suggesting running it back as it was currently constituted? We keep getting told there were no options; that was indeed the convention wisdom. How is it you're so absolutely certain/confident this was the case? The conventional wisdom that Mitchell would surely bolt Cleveland for NY or greener pastures, but Cleveland found a way to make it work.

I was skeptical then, and I am skeptical now. Blowing it up and tanking was the easy and safe way. It relieved the FO of the hard work of being creative while simultaneously allowing them to pose as geniuses, notwithstanding tanking is the default strategy in today's NBA and thus hardly the strategy of the truly intellectually gifted. Meanwhile, the FO continues to receive plaudits and applause for its brilliance for subjecting its fans to a protracted stretch of sucktitude with the most likely outcome being years of suffering only to wind up back where we started: a good, competitive team that provides entertaining, competitive basketball during the regular season but which inevitably falls short in the playoffs. 4,5,6, etc. years of investment in sucking for THIS return?

If this were a stock or other form of investment, who in their right mind would make it?

 

[Jaanipoeg]

Dallas?

Depends on what Kyrie does with his PO, no idea what the leaning is on that, and AD's health, but pivoting to tank after that "win-now" move would be all-time hilarious

 

[Schrödinger's Gerbil]

not really The team with the worst odds overwhelmingly has a chance to pick in the top 3, maybe 4 if you're unlucky In this draft it sounds like you're going to get a super good player in that range. It's not just for one player. It's to get some kind of high end talent. I don't know how this is a mystery to you Are our odds of getting the top pick quite low ? sure Are they better than my odds of banging J-Lo ?? probs. Will we be pretty much certain to get a really good player ?? yeah pretty much

point is it's worth it even once and this is a good year to do it.

got a better idea ??

Now that we're on this path, I don't have a better idea than tanking like hell to maximize our odds of winning the lottery or otherwise securing a future star via the draft. Pick your metaphor: pot committed, in for a penny, in for pound, balls to the walls, full throated, etc. My hope for each Jazz game this year is that the new guys play well and show promise, we take it into overtime, and we lose on a last second shot. A truly lose/win outcome that will leave me fully satisfied. However, my willingness to continue this attitude has an expiration date.

I think I've been clear that my issues go beyond the tactical fine points of executing a tank but go to the strategic value and efficacy of the tank itself, taking into account one's objectives and the relevant costs vs. projected/actualized benefits.