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If the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged, where will we land?

F

Flc

Well-Known Member
I've always been incredibly skeptical of conspiracy theories, but I still don't find any rational explanation for the Luka trade. The only thing that makes sense to me is the league initiating and mandating the discussions, in the face of declining ratings and revenue.

Then, you have LeBron coming out a month ago insinuating his draft - and other drafts - were rigged.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=221TahD8lKM


Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Let's assume that it is, hypothetically, for our own entertainment. Where does that leave the Jazz? Would the league want to route Cooper here, given organizational strength and the prospect of being a playoff team in Flagg's rookie year? Do they want him in Brooklyn? Would the league have the balls to give the Mavs the first pick?
 
I'm starting to wonder if there's any other scenario where conspiratorial thinking is more mainstream than when talking about the NBA draft. It's ****ing everywhere. Obnoxious.
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
I'm starting to wonder if there's any other scenario where conspiratorial thinking is more mainstream than when talking about the NBA draft. It's ****ing everywhere. Obnoxious.
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I tend to think it isn’t rigged but then again politicians go into office middle to lower upper class to high millionaires. I mean how do the Obama’s go into office pulling in just 500k a year to then being worth over 70million so I wouldn’t put it past Silver and the owners being corrupt in this manner I mean, I feel like the very fabric of our society is fairly corrupt, but I find it crazy and ironic that the calves being what 10th or 11th ending up with the first pick right when LeBron comes into the league or the Spurs getting lucky getting the first pick right when a generational talent comes in obviously with the league, hoping to re-create what they had with Tim Duncan.

The one thing I will say is I do think the NBA thinks the Jazz do run a great organization and there’s no doubt that Cooper flag would make a great fit for Utah so there’s that and if the league is corrupt like that, hopefully this is how they see it Lol
 
If past is prologue, they definitely won’t get the 1st pick. Probably the 5th pick.

I tend to believe it’s not rigged. There are some bizarre outcomes, though. I think they should largely do away with the lottery as it sews immense distrust, actively works against parity, and doesn’t even stop teams from tanking, seemingly at all.
 
NUMBERICA said:
If past is prologue, they definitely won’t get the 1st pick. Probably the 5th pick.

I tend to believe it’s not rigged. There are some bizarre outcomes, though. I think they should largely do away with the lottery as it sews immense distrust, actively works against parity, and doesn’t even stop teams from tanking, seemingly at all.
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randomness also results in some bizarre outcomes.
 
- If I had to guess where the league would prefer Flagg to go I would probably say Brooklyn as a huge market that could really use a superstar. After that I don't know if there would be a huge preference from the teams that have the best odds.

- Washington and Charlotte are just bad teams/organizations. I have to believe the league is over AD leaving New Orleans. I'm not sure what the league thinks about Philidelphia after all of the "trust the process." I don't think the league would be super excited about Cooper going to Canada. As much as the league makes rules to prevent super leagues, I can't imagine they would want to create one with Cooper and Wemby in SA.

- It's possible the league would want Cooper to go to an Eastern Conference team.

- I doubt the league really cares about where anybody outside Cooper goes. Maybe they care about Harper, but I don't think so.

- I'm sure the league doesn't appreciate how egregiously we held out our top players for such a large portion of the season. If they were wanting to send a message, I do think we would get 5th.
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
randomness also results in some bizarre outcomes.
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I'm so seriously hoping for 1st, but I think it'll be 4th. I think the league will give it to the Spurs again this year. The NBA has been suspiciously trying to help them be good again since the Wemby draft.

Spurs moved up 2 spots 2 years ago, and then moved up 1 spot last year. This year, they have 2 chances to move up from 8th, and 14th. Putting Wemby, Castle and Flagg together would set them into a promising start again for their franchise. I'm quite suspicious of the league regarding the Spurs. The media and comments on X are starting to say stuff like Spurs will get it again this year, and such because of Wemby. I feel it's either Spurs or Nets that'll get Flagg.

But I'm still being quite optimistic about the Jazz's chances for 1st, and NOT being delusional about the Spurs. But hey, NBA or the NBA gods, we've never had a 1 number pick before, please give us Cooper Flagg!
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
randomness also results in some bizarre outcomes.
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Correct. Kind of underscores my point.

I think they should try something different that better finds the overlap of achieving parity, competitiveness, fairness, and transparency.

-the team with the worst record cannot get the 1st pick (to put a trampoline at the bottom of the race to the bottom).
-regulating how often teams are allowed to get to the top-3 of the draft (to stonewall any incentive for teams to try to do multi-year tanking)
-a limited lottery for the worst teams, not all non-playoff teams (giving a play-in team a high-lottery pick works against parity and giving them a chance to incentivizes tanking out of the playoffs/play-in)
-1st tiebreaker in draft order is head-to-head record, with the better pick going to the winner of the matchup (to dissuade tank battles)

The lottery as it has been used does far more harm than good relative to something more intentional.
 
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stormkoopacv03 said:
I'm so seriously hoping for 1st, but I think it'll be 4th. I think the league will give it to the Spurs again this year. The NBA has been suspiciously trying to help them be good again since the Wemby draft.

Spurs moved up 2 spots 2 years ago, and then moved up 1 spot last year. This year, they have 2 chances to move up from 8th, and 14th. Putting Wemby, Castle and Flagg together would set them into a promising start again for their franchise. I'm quite suspicious of the league regarding the Spurs. The media and comments on X are starting to say stuff like Spurs will get it again this year, and such because of Wemby. I feel it's either Spurs or Nets that'll get Flagg.

But I'm still being quite optimistic about the Jazz's chances for 1st, and NOT being delusional about the Spurs. But hey, NBA or the NBA gods, we've never had a 1 number pick before, please give us Cooper Flagg!
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Why would the league want to create a super team when they just put a bunch of rules in place to discourage super teams?
 
I have a much larger post I started making in another thread about lottery conspiracy. Eventually I’ll get around to posting it, but at least for now, I really don’t see a compelling reason for the league to intervene in any way that has a high return guarantee (at least relative to other likely outcomes). It’d be more likely they’d intervene to prevent certain outcomes rather than to orchestrate a specific outcome. That’s not to say I believe either are likely. Anyways, the rest will have to wait for my tl;dr but I don’t see stacking SAS with more talent as being a good return on investment, and I don’t see Brooklyn, despite being in a big market, being any kind of guaranteed return. If I were looking to boost the value of the league generally, it would be more strategic placement, and while markets do relate to revenue, they’re only correlative and not the end-all-be-all of league-wide profit.
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
randomness also results in some bizarre outcomes.
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Frankly the statistics bear out the 5th pick for us, that is the way the probabilities shake out as designed. The single pick we have the greatest probability of getting is the 5th pick.
 
TheGoldStandard said:
New tv deal and pressure to get high ratings. It is a business, not a sport. If the Jazz get the #1 pick, I'll change my tune. When Dallas gets it, we'll all know why.
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I'm not sure what you are getting at? Why would the league want Dallas to get Cooper Flagg?

Also, are you saying that the league will make more money if they create a super team in San Antonio? Why do you think that?
 
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