That gets repeated a lot, but FT% isn't a great predictor either. The best predictor is a combination of 3pt%, FT%, and 3PA. Tankathon is basing their calculation on quite a bit of data I'm sure.
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That gets repeated a lot, but FT% isn't a great predictor either. The best predictor is a combination of 3pt%, FT%, and 3PA. Tankathon is basing their calculation on quite a bit of data I'm sure.
Park Bites
Well-Known Member
Was going to ask
Yeah I'd definitely say that 33.9% number is a better place to start. Ideally, there would be another layer on top that adjusted for the degree of difficulty of 3's. Like you said earlier, not all 3's are created equal. The off the dribble/catch and shoot split can be different for everyone. It's one of the reasons I'm so bullish on Kas. He "only" has a 36.7% projection, but his set of 3 point shots were the most difficult in the class IMO. His proportion made 3's that were assisted is by far the lowest. If there was an added element of degree of difficulty to this projection, I think Kas's projection would shoot up.
Donte is a knockdown shooter tho.. thats still projecting something to VJ which isnt there yet.
If I knew VJ was gonna shoot well then the comps are all legit valuable guys.
He's come a long, long way from Hoop Summit a year ago where Ulrich Chomche looked like a more viable prospect. If he's big, physical and dunks a lot that's fine. It's really just his defensive reactions and engagement that need to improve.
The dunks thing isn't just about dunking though. It's a proxy for general athleticism which is concern for Kon. I'm not actually that worried about his ability to finish at the hoop, but that athleticism deficit will show up other places as well.
Some of that gets baked in to the 3PA number. There aren't a lot of guys getting off huge volumes of 3's unless they are taking some difficult ones.
I hear you. My problem is that self-creation and scoring are essential requirements for "the guy". Other things just need to be sufficient.
So in that sense Tre is closer to being "him".
This is a very good point. Being a star is mostly about putting up stats. But there are a lot of stars who "aint it".
Right...I just think that Kas's 5.8 3PA/36 is not necessarily the same as another guy's 5.8 3PA/36. So in that sense, I'm betting on him exceeding the projection.
Im sure they are mean to project their career %, not rookie year. It would be more interesting to look back at someone they projected 6 year ago.
Yes, and I touched on that a little. If Kas shoots more catch and shoot 3's in the NBA he will likely have a higher % than his projections. 37% is still really good though, so I'm not sure the projections are short changing him at all.
The guy who is potentially being shortchanged the in the projections is Ace with his 69.2%FT%, but was 84.1% in high school.