Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick
- Thread starter Saint Cy of JFC
- Start date
baka98
Well-Known Member
Interesting takes. I wonder, could Tre be the Jazz’s version of Jaylen Brown?
Luca Pacioli
Active Member
Kon or Queen for me at 5.
"it's tough to predict what they will be after 4-5 years" is true for almost all players drafted every year, because they are so young. But, interestingly it is very rare when teams with high picks trade them for a collection of much smaller picks "to have more bites at the apple". Usually it is quite opposite: teams with low picks are desperately trying to trade up (by combining multiple low picks and adding assets) but they are rarely successful. I wonder why.
I'm probably feeling too confident about this, but I feel relatively certain on Tre at this point. I think he is going to be an elite shooter in the NBA, have a very difficult shot distribution, and also be a bad defender. We have a pretty good idea of what that lands you at, it's that borderline all star level. Think Murray, McCollum, Herro ect. This is probably the third highest median expectation I have of any player. I think it will be hard for him to elevate beyond that because the development required (attacking the rim) is not something that happens often. OTOH, I'm fairly certain he's going to be a great shooter so there isn't much downside risk. He's going to be a contributor of some kind just based on his volume shooting alone.
I feel good about how I view him, just a matter of placing prospects above or behind him now. The other prospects have more things I'm uncertain about.
I feel good about how I view him, just a matter of placing prospects above or behind him now. The other prospects have more things I'm uncertain about.
Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
I am not convinced that the best way to develop young players is to send them out to be slaughtered game after game without a core of solid vets to provide mentoring and stability. Plus, assuming you do hit on a core of youngsters capable of forming a competitive nucleus, without a strong supporting cast, they'll only just keep losing, prolonging the rebuild yet longer. I suppose that the supporting cast could be assembled in good order by trading other assets for solid vets and role players around the new core. However, there has to be a plan in place to allow the team to pivot reasonably quickly once the new, young core is identified. Denuding the team of vet talent makes it that much more challenging, or at least it seems to me.
Im pretty much in the same place with him. Watching more VJ and Ace lately has made me sweat as I see the upside and start imagining the best case scenarios.
I think Tre is taking money to bank, VJ is putting it all on black and Ace is putting it all on 7.
fishonjazz
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I wouldn't do this for their entire careers. Just next season
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HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
I think from a skill set and understanding and work ethic perspective, Tre Johnson is a pretty great prospect.
But I am concerned about his physicality. The sheer lack of free throw attempts and rebounds is... really bad.
Would have him as an elite prospect if he got to the line or got rebounds.
But I am concerned about his physicality. The sheer lack of free throw attempts and rebounds is... really bad.
Would have him as an elite prospect if he got to the line or got rebounds.
He shot 4 FTA per game...
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's an abysmal rate compared to his shot volume. Only Ace Bailey was worse at getting to the line.
Ace's total lack of free throws seems mostly due to stupidity/lack of skill whereas Tre's lack of free throws are kind of mystifying. Tre seems smart enough to know that he needs to get to the line and he just doesn't. When combined with his inability to rebound, it does make me worry about his toughness or some other aspect of his physicality.
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Schrödinger's Gerbil
Well-Known Member
Ok, fair enough. But, assuming we do get rid of the vets for next season, what's the plan for pivoting back to competitive status with a roster stocked largely with youngsters?
My #1 fear is that what was hoped to be a moderately-long rebuild turns into an interminable one. Even San Antonio, which is oft praised as a tanking success story, has missed the playoffs now for 6 straight years. That's a bloody long time. I don't want to wait another 3 years before we even have a hope of being competitive, let alone actually being competitive.