What should the FO do if we are 0.500 by January?

[HermanG]

Has any team ever turned a corner aggressively early January? Teams who have assets to invest wanna hold them to see who comes available (and possibly to see how they can sustain their health and success) and teams who are mid dont know what direction to pick. The correct decision deadline is MUCH more likely to be late January or early February like it always is... and that would put us to 20-20+ and it would be a whole different situation.

Also why isnt "deal with OKC" an option? The way I see it we are likely going to waste assets here anyways (except with the tanking shenanigans.... but that may not be politically feasible for many reasons).

 

[rippimpc]

Would be funny if okc ends up with one of the big 3.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Has any team ever turned a corner aggressively early January? Teams who have assets to invest wanna hold them to see who comes available (and possibly to see how they can sustain their health and success) and teams who are mid dont know what direction to pick. The correct decision deadline is MUCH more likely to be late January or early February like it always is... and that would put us to 20-20+ and it would be a whole different situation.

Also why isnt "deal with OKC" an option? The way I see it we are likely going to waste assets here anyways (except with the tanking shenanigans.... but that may not be politically feasible for many reasons).

I picked early January because by late January you are already locked in to some degree. This not meant to be a realistic scenario.

 

[fishonjazz]

Would be funny if okc ends up with one of the big 3.

They would have to have one of the big 3 fall to the 9th pick for that to happen I think.

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk

 

[HermanG]

I picked early January because by late January you are already locked in to some degree. This not meant to be a realistic scenario.

Yeah I can see how this scenario and its options are much more limited at 20-20.

Personally only option that is off the table for me at that point is the "unethical tank" path. I dont think you can start that early January at 15-15 and not expect the league to get absolutely furious especially with media drooling for news that are related to result manipulation and therefore can be tied to gambling.

But I dont really have a clear preference of the other options. They all cost assets in one way or the other as you cant force early trades and try to win them. If I had to spend assets though, I would first explore the OKCpath.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Yeah I can see how this scenario and its options are much more limited at 20-20.

Personally only option that is off the table for me at that point is the "unethical tank" path. I dont think you can start that early January at 15-15 and not expect the league to get absolutely furious especially with media drooling for news that are related to result manipulation and therefore can be tied to gambling.

But I dont really have a clear preference of the other options. They all cost assets in one way or the other as you cant force early trades and try to win them. If I had to spend assets though, I would first explore the OKCpath.

I personally haven't been able to think of a trade that makes sense for both us and OKC to keep our pick, especially considering the fact that OKC is likely much more concerned about preserving the upside of the pick (lottery pick) vs being concerned about the downside of losing out on the pick.

 

[HermanG]

I personally haven't been able to think of a trade that makes sense for both us and OKC to keep our pick, especially considering the fact that OKC is likely much more concerned about preserving the upside of the pick (lottery pick) vs being concerned about the downside of losing out on the pick.

You are probably correct. They want good players who help them win but arent taking up their cap space (we dont have any) or then another potential premium pick since they have zero need for some trash heap picks.

 

[Flc]

Zach Lowe has maintained his confidence on the Jazz's interest in trading Lauri for over a month. Austin Ainge has more reason to deceive on this point than Zach does, and I don't think ZL would report something that wasn't incredibly solid.

I suspect they're waiting for the right offer, but it's a matter of time, unless that offer doesn't come. Spurs gotta be heavily considering it at this point.

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

Zach Lowe has maintained his confidence on the Jazz's interest in trading Lauri for over a month. Austin Ainge has more reason to deceive on this point than Zach does, and I don't think ZL would report something that wasn't incredibly solid.

I suspect they're waiting for the right offer, but it's a matter of time, unless that offer doesn't come. Spurs gotta be heavily considering it at this point.

Would it be too much to ask for adding a link, when there's a mention someone has said this or that. Could I have a link to Lowe's latest tweet, pod, etc. where he's been speculating this?

 

[KqWIN]

I don’t know if Zach is maintaining his position from reporting or feel, but from the outside looking in it has never made too much to have Lauri on a tanking team.

I still can’t find a buyer. I’d be shocked if it happens. AA undid a lot of his fathers sins but I think he will remain stubborn on Lauri.

 

[rippimpc]

Would it be too much to ask for adding a link, when there's a mention someone has said this or that. Could I have a link to Lowe's latest tweet, pod, etc. where he's been speculating this?

1 hr and 15 minute ish mark


View: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2sMqahFEQarZ10hyW6gh20?si=aXi4RHoXQmaw0TPDCHCjvA&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A7odspoIkzPJSTsiwffW20f


Honestly Lowe makes great points. Good to see him give Keyonte his flowers.

Man am I torn. Lauri is really good. My greedy side says roll the dice and keep him and try to get Dybantsa. My practical side says we probably end up a low lotto to play in team with George taking a leap and Lauri isn’t a good enough #1 option to take us to a title.

 

[MT Steve]

The second option is insane to me.

If you believe Dybantsa is the Chosen One and that the 2026 draft is going to be historically great at the top, then why would you be opposed to an unethical tank like in previous years? It's just as silly as when somebody argued to hell and back last year that the Jazz should sell low on Kessler to squeeze out a few more losses. They didn't need to, as evidenced by reality.

And going forward into future years past this one, I'll just add that I truly do not get why people want to be perennial bottom feeders until the Jazz finally hit the insanely low odds of 1: Having a top pick, and 2: Having the player they draft from that top pick be a superstar.

The last time a team won a championship with a superstar that they drafted in the top 4 of the draft with their own pick was the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, 13 years after they drafted their superstar who won elsewhere before returning to them. Before that, you have to go almost 30 years back to the 1997 NBA draft when the Spurs used their own pick to draft Tim Duncan.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

The second option is insane to me.

If you believe Dybantsa is the Chosen One and that the 2026 draft is going to be historically great at the top, then why would you be opposed to an unethical tank like in previous years? It's just as silly as when somebody argued to hell and back last year that the Jazz should sell low on Kessler to squeeze out a few more losses. They didn't need to, as evidenced by reality.

And going forward into future years past this one, I'll just add that I truly do not get why people want to be perennial bottom feeders until the Jazz finally hit the insanely low odds of 1: Having a top pick, and 2: Having the player they draft from that top pick be a superstar.

The last time a team won a championship with a superstar that they drafted in the top 4 of the draft with their own pick was the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers, 13 years after they drafted their superstar who won elsewhere before returning to them. Before that, you have to go almost 30 years back to the 1997 NBA draft when the Spurs used their own pick to draft Tim Duncan.

An unethical tank doesn't make a ton of sense though as these guys will still be 2-3 years away and by the time they're ready, Lauri will be a free agent and 32.

Beyond the logistics not making sense, I'm pretty sure the NBA would be furious with the team and might try to blackball Hardy et al. They have clearly warned the team to not do this stuff again.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

An unethical tank doesn't make a ton of sense though as these guys will still be 2-3 years away and by the time they're ready, Lauri will be a free agent and 32.

There is no guarantee whatsoever that they'll ever be "ready". It's not inevitable.

It's easy to say that we should draft a guy who would eventually be a Batman to Lauri's Robin (if he's still here). But Lauri himself was a one-and-done, and in his second NBA season he averaged 19/9. In other words, he was on another level compared to the current Jazz youngins.

It's incredibly hard to draft a guy who becomes as good as Lauri Markkanen, and much, much harder to draft someone who becomes better than him.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

There is no guarantee whatsoever that they'll ever be "ready". It's not inevitable.

It's easy to say that we should draft a guy who would eventually be a Batman to Lauri's Robin (if he's still here). But Lauri himself was a one-and-done, and in his second NBA season he averaged 19/9. In other words, he was on another level compared to the current Jazz youngins.

It's incredibly hard to draft a guy who becomes as good as Lauri Markkanen, and much, much harder to draft someone who becomes better than him.

OK, but Lauri's prime is nearly over and we have no ability to build a team around him to even become a 48 win team.

I don't really understand the point of this line of thought. This is a fair point for the 2022-2023 trade deadline, it does not make any sense now. We have to tank over and over again until there's enough guys here to contend because there's no asset base to improve the team. This could take 2 more tanks or 7 depending on the draft outcomes.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

If what Keyonte and Lauri are doing right now is sustainable, then we currently have 1 all star level player and 2 starting level players. I think that is a foundation you can build on. For example what if we traded for Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram (ignore the cap stuff for now). Keyonte, Jrue, Ingram, Lauri, Kessler could be a top 6 team in the West in my opinion. That's not a championship level team, but a good team that is capable of winning a lot of games.

Should the FO put off winning forever at the expense of chasing the next MVP level player through the draft?

FWIW, I think we are all mostly aligned. It didn't make sense chasing wins this year with our 2026 draft pick on the line. Next year, if we can maintain a foundation worth building upon, we should try to add to it as responsibly as possible.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

If what Keyonte and Lauri are doing right now is sustainable, then we currently have 1 all star level player and 2 starting level players. I think that is a foundation you can build on. For example what if we traded for Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram (ignore the cap stuff for now). Keyonte, Jrue, Ingram, Lauri, Kessler could be a top 6 team in the West in my opinion. That's not a championship level team, but a good team that is capable of winning a lot of games.

Should the FO put off winning forever at the expense of chasing the next MVP level player through the draft?

FWIW, I think we are all mostly aligned. It didn't make sense chasing wins this year with our 2026 draft pick on the line. Next year, if we can maintain a foundation worth building upon, we should try to add to it as responsibly as possible.

I think the issue with like a Keyonte/Lauri/Walker/Brandon Ingram-like team is that this gets extremely expensive extremely fast for a first round exit. Like, that's probably already close to the tax in two years.

If Ace starts showing signs of life, maybe we could trade him and our pick this year for a genuine star who isn't overpaid I guess, but Ace's trade value is obviously not going to be fantastic unless he starts flashing any star potential.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think the issue with like a Keyonte/Lauri/Walker/Brandon Ingram-like team is that this gets extremely expensive extremely fast for a first round exit. Like, that's probably already close to the tax in two years.

If Ace starts showing signs of life, maybe we could trade him and our pick this year for a genuine star who isn't overpaid I guess, but Ace's trade value is obviously not going to be fantastic unless he starts flashing any star potential.

The capstuff makes it trickier, which is why I was only using that example as an illustration. The point is at some point you have to start adding to the team once you have the foundation. In my opinion two starter level players and an all star level player is a good enough foundation vs waiting forever to have that happen through the draft.

FWIW, the most likely outcome of any rebuild is a cap constrained team that could also lose a first round matchup.

 

[HadAnEffectHere]

The capstuff makes it trickier, which is why I was only using that example as an illustration. The point is at some point you have to start adding to the team once you have the foundation. In my opinion two starter level players and an all star level player is a good enough foundation vs waiting forever to have that happen through the draft.

FWIW, the most likely outcome of any rebuild is a cap constrained team that could also lose a first round matchup.

On one hand, yes, on the other hand, we blew up a 2nd round contender with a 26 year old Hall of Famer under contract for three more years to tank for four years and blew up a 2nd round contender with tons of cap space at the following trade deadline instead of building around a 25 year old all-star (so we could tank for four more years).

I don't know if Ainge can just go "whoops, was wrong about everything because my drafting was really bad, lol, let's go back to being a luxury tax constrained first round contender for a couple years" when he personally just seems like a bored old guy.

Mechanically, there's also a ton of weird moving parts to handle in that most stars don't want to get traded to this team (because we're so bad) and the team has not wanted to trade for stars that don't want to be here. Kessler is also an abysmal fit with Hardy's bizarre schemes and probably has to be moved for a center that plays non-drop coverage and can get back in transition and is skilled offensively (and getting one of those guys is super super hard). It's not clear how many years it would take for these guys to become available and Lauri only has a couple years left.

 

[fishonjazz]

Should the FO put off winning forever at the expense of chasing the next MVP level player through the draft?

Forever? No. I haven't seen anyone say that they want to avoid winning forever.
For 1 more year while we have a draft pick with protections on it? I could handle that.