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Keyonte George’s Star Ascension

SoberasHotRod said:
Feels like this can't be true???
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The TS% qualifier is likely what kicks a lot of dudes out. He has the same TS% as Lauri. I think between those two and adding in some decent role guys you have a top 10 offense or close to it. How they figure out defense is another question.

Keyonte has also been really clutch... on both sides of the floor. Has made a bunch of defensive plays in these close games. That's kind of what you want from a star/high usage since they can't be Lu Dort and Donovan.

Key is officially a guy I feel good banking on long term.
 
bopahull said:
What makes you sure that a # 6 to 8 pick is going to turn out to be any better than an Exum or a Cody?
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I will go on record guaranteeing that anyone we could get at #6-8 will have far, far more impact that anyone we can get at 9 or beyond. I’m willing to wager just about anything.
 
infection said:
I will go on record guaranteeing that anyone we could get at #6-8 will have far, far more impact that anyone we can get at 9 or beyond. I’m willing to wager just about anything.
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I agree Jazz must keep that pick and hope they strike gold
They cannot walk away with no pick at all
 
bopahull said:
And exactly where were Keyonte and Jokic drafted?
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If you were to take where Jokic was drafted (#41) and put a range up three spots from there and down three spots from there, which cohort would yield more all-stars than, say, even number 5 by itself?

Landing a dud in the top 10 sticks out like a sore thumb because the expectation, whereas landing a dud at 20 or beyond is easy to forget and less likely to produce an availability bias. We’ve had very few top 10 picks so things like Exum and Kanter stand out, and we forget about Deron Williams because that’s the expected result. Things like Rudy and John and Karl and Millsap and even Donovan stand out for their position, but then we’ve also got a lot of guys like Quincy Lewis and Scott Padgett and Raul Lopez and Kirk Snyder and Curtis Borchardt and Morris Almond and Eric Maynor and Kosta Koufos and Trey Lyles and Luther Wright and Erick Murdock. How often have you thought of any of those guys in the past 5 years?

There are numerous ways in which we take statistics in one context and inappropriately try to superimpose it into another where we get the wrong answer. An example would be learning that the risk for Down syndrome is increased drastically by advanced maternal age (5-fold increase over 35 and up to 16-fold increase above 40). You then ask what the typical demographics are for a mother of a child who has Down syndrome, and you’d be inclined to say advanced maternal age but the age demographics of those mothers is roughly in line with typical age demographics of all other pregnancies — that’s the age group having most of the children, whereas those with advanced maternal age are such a minority of live births when you look at the whole picture. But if you’re asking what increases the risk for it, you can’t appeal to the paucity of live births after 40 to say that because there aren’t a significant amount by volume that there isn’t a drastic difference in risk.

So yes, the vast majority of our strongest players in franchise history have been taken outside the lottery…. because that’s where the vast majority of our picks have been made from. But if you break down our actual hit rate, it’s higher on the higher picks than it is the lower ones, even if it doesn’t intuitively appear that way, again because it’s too easy to conflate volume and rate as being the same thing.
 
infection said:
If you were to take where Jokic was drafted (#41) and put a range up three spots from there and down three spots from there, which cohort would yield more all-stars than, say, even number 5 by itself?

Landing a dud in the top 10 sticks out like a sore thumb because the expectation, whereas landing a dud at 20 or beyond is easy to forget and less likely to produce an availability bias. We’ve had very few top 10 picks so things like Exum and Kanter stand out, and we forget about Deron Williams because that’s the expected result. Things like Rudy and John and Karl and Millsap and even Donovan stand out for their position, but then we’ve also got a lot of guys like Quincy Lewis and Scott Padgett and Raul Lopez and Kirk Snyder and Curtis Borchardt and Morris Almond and Eric Maynor and Kosta Koufos and Trey Lyles and Luther Wright and Erick Murdock. How often have you thought of any of those guys in the past 5 years?

There are numerous ways in which we take statistics in one context and inappropriately try to superimpose it into another where we get the wrong answer. An example would be learning that the risk for Down syndrome is increased drastically by advanced maternal age (5-fold increase over 35 and up to 16-fold increase above 40). You then ask what the typical demographics are for a mother of a child who has Down syndrome, and you’d be inclined to say advanced maternal age but the age demographics of those mothers is roughly in line with typical age demographics of all other pregnancies — that’s the age group having most of the children, whereas those with advanced maternal age are such a minority of live births when you look at the whole picture. But if you’re asking what increases the risk for it, you can’t appeal to the paucity of live births after 40 to say that because there aren’t a significant amount by volume that there isn’t a drastic difference in risk.

So yes, the vast majority of our strongest players in franchise history have been taken outside the lottery…. because that’s where the vast majority of our picks have been made from. But if you break down our actual hit rate, it’s higher on the higher picks than it is the lower ones, even if it doesn’t intuitively appear that way, again because it’s too easy to conflate volume and rate as being the same thing.
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I don't disagree that the likelihood of getting a meaningful player with a lower pick is higher, I'm just saying there is no guarantee that will happen. The jazz have not had a great history of picking the best player available with their lottery picks. Ace seems to be an exception. Even Deron Williams didn't turn out to have the career Chris Paul did. Maybe it's a FO player evaluation problem.
 
bopahull said:
I don't disagree that the likelihood of getting a meaningful player with a lower pick is higher, I'm just saying there is no guarantee that will happen. The jazz have not had a great history of picking the best player available with their lottery picks. Ace seems to be an exception. Even Deron Williams didn't turn out to have the career Chris Paul did. Maybe it's a FO player evaluation problem.
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Deron had a better career for the Jazz than Paul had for the Pelicans. Less than a percent of drafted players play for one team their entire career.
 
bopahull said:
I don't disagree that the likelihood of getting a meaningful player with a lower pick is higher, I'm just saying there is no guarantee that will happen. The jazz have not had a great history of picking the best player available with their lottery picks. Ace seems to be an exception. Even Deron Williams didn't turn out to have the career Chris Paul did. Maybe it's a FO player evaluation problem.
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In no way, shape or form was Ace the BPA at #5.

Tre, Fears, CMB, Coward and (it's painful for me to say this) even Queen are obviously better basketball players and more useful for their teams.

Ace is another talented, super raw project with no guarantees of reaching his ceiling.
 
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Tremendous Upside said:
In no way, shape of form was Ace the BPA at #5.

Tre, Fears, CMB, Coward and (it's painful for me to say this) even Queen are obviously better basketball players and more useful for their teams.

Ace is another talented, super raw project with no guarantees of reaching his ceiling.
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Queen is a nice player but had same athletic measurements as Jarron Collins
 
NAOS_pt2 said:
I love a prospect that "guaranteed to reach his ceiling."
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Obviously there are no guarantees. But there are levels.

The Jazz don't want Ace to be a nice role player. He was drafted as a future building block, and hopefully a star. The trouble is, right now there are many guys drafted both before and after him who fit that description a lot better.

Of course he may get there. He's talented, has a good head on his shoulders and he tries, but so far he's been a much worse shooter than advertised. That's a problem, as he can't get to the basket either. Needs to work super hard in the offseason.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
Obviously there are no guarantees. But there are levels.

The Jazz don't want Ace to be a nice role player. He was drafted as a future building block, and hopefully a star. The trouble is, right now there are many guys drafted both before and after him who fit that description a lot better.

Of course he may get there. He's talented, has a good head on his shoulders and he tries, but so far he's been a much worse shooter than advertised. That's a problem, as he can't get to the basket either. Needs to work super hard in the offseason.
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Ace does seem like the quintessential measurements pick. Long, athletic, I like his shot personally. What’s odd is he’s not at all showing the warts the pundits claimed. But he’s not as good as the guys you mentioned rn. I do like what I see though.
 
rippimpc said:
Ace does seem like the quintessential measurements pick. Long, athletic, I like his shot personally.
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His shot looks good, but in his last five games, he's 7/25 (28%) from the perimeter, and most of those have been pretty open spot-up shots.

It's not that unusual for a rookie's shot to come and go, but jump shooting was supposed to be Ace's biggest strength.

A 52.5 TS% just isn't great, no matter how you look at it.
 
Tremendous Upside said:
Obviously there are no guarantees. But there are levels.

The Jazz don't want Ace to be a nice role player. He was drafted as a future building block, and hopefully a star. The trouble is, right now there are many guys drafted both before and after him who fit that description a lot better.

Of course he may get there. He's talented, has a good head on his shoulders and he tries, but so far he's been a much worse shooter than advertised. That's a problem, as he can't get to the basket either. Needs to work super hard in the offseason.
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It's funny how you appear to want to be taken seriously. I mean, all you do is over-react. Flagg is "mid", right? You'd seen enough to know without a doubt, right?

We haven't seen enough of Ace. This is ****ing obvious.

Be less of a hyper-reactive ninny, eh? Consider this a New Year's resolution, eh?
 
Tremendous Upside said:
In no way, shape or form was Ace the BPA at #5.

Tre, Fears, CMB, Coward and (it's painful for me to say this) even Queen are obviously better basketball players and more useful for their teams.

Ace is another talented, super raw project with no guarantees of reaching his ceiling.
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Arm chair GM something something.
 
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