2026 NBA Trade Discussion Thread

[fishonjazz]

One of the major wrinkles here is it cuts our legs off, so it basically triples our odds of landing a top-4 pick

Another wrinkle is it creates the possibility of TWO top-4 picks, in addition to basically guaranteeing two top-8 picks.

Another one is it saves the Hawks’ season and keeps the Spurs from inevitably jumping top-4 for the millionth time.

These points make things more interesting for sure. Now i cant decide.

 

[fishonjazz]

I get the premise of it but it would set the rebuild back 1-2 more years at least.

Which may end up being a good thing. No way to know for sure.
Would certainly suck in the short term but might look like a genius decision in the long term.

 

[fishonjazz]

The chance of the pick being better than Key is fairly low. And even if the player does end up better that will be 3/4 years down the road. I have absolutely 0 interest in 3 more years of being a bottom team and that's assuming the pick jumps up and the player actually turns out and stays healthy. That seems like a really bad gamble.

You have to remember though in this scenario it isn't pick, its picks plural. We would have our pick, which without key this year would have a better chance of being a great pick, and the pick we got from trading keyonte.
So those fairly low odds go up at least a little by the fact that its 2 high lottery picks rather than 1.

 

[NUMBERICA]

For the record, I mostly agree with just keeping Key and felt that way at the outset, but I think it’s something interesting to think about or perhaps even consider.

 

[Ron Mexico]

You have to remember though in this scenario it isn't pick, its picks plural. We would have our pick, which without key this year would have a better chance of being a great pick, and the pick we got from trading keyonte.
So those fairly low odds go up at least a little by the fact that its 2 high lottery picks rather than 1.

It would ever so slightly bump up our pick, I don't think that's much of a factor. We still have the same issue even with 2 picks. We also don't know Key's peak. He's putting up similar numbers in year 3 to Shai and other great players. It's a very poor gamble. It's one that has potential to wreck the franchise for years at a low percentage of getting a better player.

 

[HermanG]

Yeah, trading Key for some percentage points seems kind of ridiculous. But if we're talking about after the lotto....I mean how many guys in the NBA are you really taking over Pete/AJ/Booz? I always say the draft is overhyped, but I think these guys are really special.

This is such mass hypnosis.

If we want #1 or #2 guys then I hear Zion and Ja are available. Trae? Ayton? Wiggins? I dont know where Fultz, Bennet and Simmons are but maybe we should go and turn over some rocks? Parker?

Or hey lets go for the more successful ones like KAT or Banchero? Chet? Or maybe AD or Kyrie who were great Robins to Lebrons Batman.

Cade and Ant are maybe the best #1 pick outcomes over the past 15 years along with Wemby who was not a normal prospect and everyone knew it.

But Im sure just this specific draft will be different and they all turn into HoF guys.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

For the record, I mostly agree with just keeping Key and felt that way at the outset, but I think it’s something interesting to think about or perhaps even consider.

I think if you were just a straight "title or nothing" type it would make some sense as it might increase the ceiling of the team a bit if you landed two top 8 guys that were better two-way threats or on the exact same timeline. I think you'd likely "lose" the trade but it might increase the potential ceiling... maybe.

I don't think the risk is worth the reward. You'd almost have to have a great Lauri trade already lined up and then got this deal from Atlanta. Right now I think that pick should be valued as the like 7th pick in the upcoming draft but I think Atlanta would perceive it as having higher value than that.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Exactly 2 weeks from teh deadline

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think if you were just a straight "title or nothing" type it would make some sense as it might increase the ceiling of the team a bit if you landed two top 8 guys that were better two-way threats or on the exact same timeline. I think you'd likely "lose" the trade but it might increase the potential ceiling... maybe.

I don't think the risk is worth the reward. You'd almost have to have a great Lauri trade already lined up and then got this deal from Atlanta. Right now I think that pick should be valued as the like 7th pick in the upcoming draft but I think Atlanta would perceive it as having higher value than that.

gonna adjust this... it should be valued as like the 5th pick in the upcoming draft.

 

[NUMBERICA]

gonna adjust this... it should be valued as like the 5th pick in the upcoming draft.

Unless something changes in New Orleans, I don’t know that we should expect that they’ll turn it around this season and they’re at the bottom.

 

[KqWIN]

This is such mass hypnosis.

If we want #1 or #2 guys then I hear Zion and Ja are available. Trae? Ayton? Wiggins? I dont know where Fultz, Bennet and Simmons are but maybe we should go and turn over some rocks? Parker?

Or hey lets go for the more successful ones like KAT or Banchero? Chet? Or maybe AD or Kyrie who were great Robins to Lebrons Batman.

Cade and Ant are maybe the best #1 pick outcomes over the past 15 years along with Wemby who was not a normal prospect and everyone knew it.

But Im sure just this specific draft will be different and they all turn into HoF guys.

I hear what you're saying....but I do think this year is different. Most years do not compare at all and if you catch me saying this year in, year out you can include me in the mass hypnosis.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Unless something changes in New Orleans, I don’t know that we should expect that they’ll turn it around this season and they’re at the bottom.

Simply not having their pick will give them some additional wins as teams actively try to lose. We have 3 games against them for instance. I think they finish around 4th which has an expected pick value of roughly the 5th pick. I don't think they will "catch" us but they will catch a couple teams imo.