Keyonte George’s Star Ascension

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Who would you take right now if both were in their third year? I would take Key as he's a better passer. I might get killed for that but their numbers are insanely close. Key hopefully takes another jump this summer

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Probably Donovan because of defense. Not that he was ever great, and kind of devolved towards the end, but still a better defender than Keyonte.

Key's main advantage that he plays PG. Still kind of shocked Donovan has gone his entire career without anyone trying to make him their main PG.

 

[HermanG]

Who would you take right now if both were in their third year? I would take Key as he's a better passer. I might get killed for that but their numbers are insanely close. Key hopefully takes another jump this summer

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Scoring outputs are not actually equal, since the points scored per game and player averages have increased from Dons year 3. Don was 15th in PPG while Keyonte is 22nd with a better number.

I would still choose Key. Better size for his position (so less of a theoretical liability), better free throw merchant, better playmaker, less selfish (hero ball) and that also shows in that we have Lauri who eats even better than Key does himself.

Boogie Cousins said in Fanduels JJJ trade analysis that Keyonte is a future superstar. He really wanted to nail that in and "warn everyone". I'm not quite there yet myself but Im buying a lot of Keyonte stocks right now.

 

[KqWIN]

Defensive gap between Mitchell and George is huge. I am willing to say that Key is not quite as bad as numbers say, but when they are this bad it’s hard to ignore. George needs to prove his impact, or more importantly his lack of massive negative defensive impact. Tanking makes things blurry….we’ll see how next season goes.

You could maybe say that they are close offensively, but again it’s not really been proven out by impact metrics. I think there is a perception that Key is better passer/ball handler just based on assist numbers, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Mitchell really impacted his team’s TOV performance in a positive way whereas Key is the opposite.

With all that said, it is interesting to look back on where Mitchell was then and now. Mitchell was probably overrated at this time of his career and you could argue he was though the end of his Jazz career. Rudy was carrying so much more weight than him. I don’t think people consider Mitchell to be much different now than he was when he left Utah, but he’s actually made a massive jump since then. His defense has improved as has his efficiency and overall impact on both ends. I don’t think his improvement is recognized as much because he was overrated to start.

I think Mitchell was like top 25 when he was traded. Now I’d say he could be top 8 which is a massive jump. I’d be kind of surprised if Key sniffed where Don is now, but maybe a top 25-30 ish peak is within reach. I’d say his outcomes lie somewhere in between Lavine and Murray. Really comes to how much impact lies behind the nice counting stats. A non-tanking environment will be telling.

 

[HermanG]

Defensive gap between Mitchell and George is huge. I am willing to say that Key is not quite as bad as numbers say, but when they are this bad it’s hard to ignore. George needs to prove his impact, or more importantly his lack of massive negative defensive impact. Tanking makes things blurry….we’ll see how next season goes.

You could maybe say that they are close offensively, but again it’s not really been proven out by impact metrics. I think there is a perception that Key is better passer/ball handler just based on assist numbers, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Mitchell really impacted his team’s TOV performance in a positive way whereas Key is the opposite.

With all that said, it is interesting to look back on where Mitchell was then and now. Mitchell was probably overrated at this time of his career and you could argue he was though the end of his Jazz career. Rudy was carrying so much more weight than him. I don’t think people consider Mitchell to be much different now than he was when he left Utah, but he’s actually made a massive jump since then. His defense has improved as has his efficiency and overall impact on both ends. I don’t think his improvement is recognized as much because he was overrated to start.

I think Mitchell was like top 25 when he was traded. Now I’d say he could be top 8 which is a massive jump. I’d be kind of surprised if Key sniffed where Don is now, but maybe a top 25-30 ish peak is within reach. I’d say his outcomes lie somewhere in between Lavine and Murray. Really comes to how much impact lies behind the nice counting stats. A non-tanking environment will be telling.

Wow this is such a hater take. Or a spreadsheet take. Not sure. But really Lavine and Murray?

Lavine is one of the lowest BBIQ "star players" I have ever seen who in his absolute prime put up numbers because of infinite usage hero ball.... and Murray took 7 years to figure out how do get to the FT line and the dude has benefitted from playing 2 man game with the best offensive player ever for his entire career. If playing with Nurk gets Key to this level we have seen, then what would he produce with Jokic?

 

[Basketball Novice]

What are we all thinking for extension talks? I believe he will be extension eligible this off season. With his performance, we are probably looking at a max. Naturally everyone is in on Keyonte stock right now. But how "in" is everyone? We don't risk getting out of the offseason without an extension, right?

 

[HermanG]

What are we all thinking for extension talks? I believe he will be extension eligible this off season. With his performance, we are probably looking at a max. Naturally everyone is in on Keyonte stock right now. But how "in" is everyone? We don't risk getting out of the offseason without an extension, right?

Good question. If he and his agent want max, then I would say the best option is to let him play out his contract. We cant max a 6'4 guard based on 1 borderline all-star year in our current cap landscape. One way guards have very little value on the markets if they dont prove to be winning pieces first.

I believe in Keyonte but reality of things is he doesnt have wins to show for and we have no idea how he would fair in playoffs when defenders can play more physical all over the court.

 

[KqWIN]

Wow this is such a hater take. Or a spreadsheet take. Not sure. But really Lavine and Murray?

Lavine is one of the lowest BBIQ "star players" I have ever seen who in his absolute prime put up numbers because of infinite usage hero ball.... and Murray took 7 years to figure out how do get to the FT line and the dude has benefitted from playing 2 man game with the best offensive player ever for his entire career. If playing with Nurk gets Key to this level we have seen, then what would he produce with Jokic?

At the end of the day we’re both using the spreadsheet, just not looking at the same one. The APM is as real as the basic counting stats in my eyes.

Unfortunately the real hater is our defense when Keyonte plays. That’s what he shares in common with Lavine. Lavine’s numbers weren’t just a result of high usage. He was one of the most efficient high usage scores in the league. In a three year stretch he was nearly 25/5/5 on 61% TS in an era with less inflated numbers. Lavine is the peak example of how box score numbers don’t tell the whole story. There needs to be impact behind the numbers. Keyonte has a lot of career left, but as a low end range comp I think it makes sense until that impact shows up.

Lavine’s basic counting numbers were better than Murray’s, but Murray has more proven impact. I think we’d all agree he’s a better player, and that is justified by the impact. I think there’s actually a post somewhere in this thread where I went through the comparison. Murray has a weird career where he underperforms in the reg season, but to me he represents a level of a guy who makes a couple all star games but isn’t necessarily an every year all star. If you don’t think Murray accurately reflects that level, pick someone else that dos. I think that’s a good higher end expectation for Key.

PS: Let the record show that you mentioned the Nurk thing, not me. Key plays worse with Nurk on the floor.

 

[KqWIN]

What are we all thinking for extension talks? I believe he will be extension eligible this off season. With his performance, we are probably looking at a max. Naturally everyone is in on Keyonte stock right now. But how "in" is everyone? We don't risk getting out of the offseason without an extension, right?

I come off as a hater, but if you find yourself a lot higher on him than myself than you ought to be willing to max him.

I don’t think an extension gets done. It’s max or no max which is more beneficial to wait than WK’s situation.

 

[HermanG]

At the end of the day we’re both using the spreadsheet, just not looking at the same one. The APM is as real as the basic counting stats in my eyes.

Unfortunately the real hater is our defense when Keyonte plays. That’s what he shares in common with Lavine. Lavine’s numbers weren’t just a result of high usage. He was one of the most efficient high usage scores in the league. In a three year stretch he was nearly 25/5/5 on 61% TS in an era with less inflated numbers. Lavine is the peak example of how box score numbers don’t tell the whole story. There needs to be impact behind the numbers. Keyonte has a lot of career left, but as a low end range comp I think it makes sense until that impact shows up.

Lavine’s basic counting numbers were better than Murray’s, but Murray has more proven impact. I think we’d all agree he’s a better player, and that is justified by the impact. I think there’s actually a post somewhere in this thread where I went through the comparison. Murray has a weird career where he underperforms in the reg season, but to me he represents a level of a guy who makes a couple all star games but isn’t necessarily an every year all star. If you don’t think Murray accurately reflects that level, pick someone else that dos. I think that’s a good higher end expectation for Key.

PS: Let the record show that you mentioned the Nurk thing, not me. Key plays worse with Nurk on the floor.

Jamal Murray regular season and playoff FTr is about 20% which screams "role player" more than "star player". Key on the other hand was 27.5% on his rookie season and 43.6% this year, which is SGA level FTr.

Lavine on the other hand is a basketball moron (a talented one, but still a moron) who despite his god given gift to score and shoot hasnt figured out how to provide any other value to his team. He is also one of the most stagnant off ball players you will ever see in the NBA. DId you happen to know that Keyonte already has two more 10+ assist games than Zach does in his career?

I get it that you werent making comps, but Keyonte is gonna end up being way better offensively than those two. Way better. But defense I'm not gonna argue at all since he just doesnt play like he cares 100% of the time. Murray also coasts a lot, so I guess its not always a death sentence to a guard, but I do hope he doesnt end up being that guy.

I'm rather surprised if what you say about him and Nurk is true. since it feels like Key plays PnR pretty well these days. I guess I take an L on that one.

 

[Tom Pitt]

Who would you take right now if both were in their third year? I would take Key as he's a better passer. I might get killed for that but their numbers are insanely close. Key hopefully takes another jump this summer

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Not to mention Key a year younger than Donovan in their 3rd seasons

 

[framer]

Key's main advantage that he plays PG. Still kind of shocked Donovan has gone his entire career without anyone trying to make him their main PG.

This makes Key easier to build around, which is why you take Key. We had to bring in Mike for Donovan, we can put Key next to Ace.

Also, Key has equal of better stats as the SECOND option on his team. Donovan was first option.

 

[SD Jazz]

Key over DM every day, it is not even close.