Marc Stein: Jazz-Warriors discuss pre-Lottery trade (Source says trade "likely")

[billyshelby]

Utah Jazz: Receives Golden State’s 2012 first-round pick (top-7 protected in 2012 and 2013, top-6 protected in 2014, else 2014 and 2016 second-round picks) via Utah (from the Marcus Williams trade on 9/29/09) from the Deron Williams trade on 2/23/11.

Just for clarification. In other words, we could literally get nothing (2 lousy seconds) if things go wrong. If KOC is not going the player swap route, then he has to get a guaranteed first out of this negotiation as his top priority.

 

[Dr. Jones]

Just for clarification. In other words, we could literally get nothing (2 lousy seconds) if things go wrong. If KOC is not going the player swap route, then he has to get a guaranteed first out of this negotiation as his top priority.

I think we're all on the same page there.

 

[northeast]

Stein said the odds are 28 percent that the 7th pick falls to 8 or 9 in the lottery.

Upon review, if the 2008 wikipedia table is correct, than I'd say the odds are 25%.

 

[infection]

Just for clarification. In other words, we could literally get nothing (2 lousy seconds) if things go wrong. If KOC is not going the player swap route, then he has to get a guaranteed first out of this negotiation as his top priority.

If the trade is surrendering the pick unconditionally this year in exchange for a guarantee to get a pick, then I'd say there's a statistically better chance of us getting the pick this year via lottery than there is a chance of us not getting the pick next year. Which is to say that us surrendering the pick this year would be in vain, since it's probably unlikely we get to the point in 2013 where we don't have a pick, and that there's a better chance of getting it this year than there is a chance of that scenario playing out.

 

[Dr. Jones]

If the trade is surrendering the pick unconditionally this year in exchange for a guarantee to get a pick, then I'd say there's a statistically better chance of us getting the pick this year via lottery than there is a chance of us not getting the pick next year. Which is to say that us surrendering the pick this year would be in vain, since it's probably unlikely we get to the point in 2013 where we don't have a pick, and that there's a better chance of getting it this year than there is a chance of that scenario playing out.

Agreed. Which is why my very first post in this thread was we give '12 to GSW and GSW gives us '13 and this year's 35.

 

[northeast]

so why give up a 25% chance at the 8 for a 35th. Does not seem worth it

 

[Dr. Jones]

so why give up a 25% chance at the 8 for a 35th. Does not seem worth it

Because if the more likely is true and we don't get the pick, it's protected again next year .. and the year after that turns into two 2nd rounders. Sure, we could roll the dice and see if we can beat the odds, but if we don't the BEST we could hope for is a pick next year. I'm all for guranteeing the pick next year and them throwing in their early 2nd in '12. Obviously I'd rather have their #30 .. but I would take the 35.

 

[Jazz4ever]

If the trade is surrendering the pick unconditionally this year in exchange for a guarantee to get a pick, then I'd say there's a statistically better chance of us getting the pick this year via lottery than there is a chance of us not getting the pick next year. Which is to say that us surrendering the pick this year would be in vain, since it's probably unlikely we get to the point in 2013 where we don't have a pick, and that there's a better chance of getting it this year than there is a chance of that scenario playing out.

 

[northeast]

I suppose... I'd tend to think that we would probably get the pick next year anyway, and it probably won't be as good as the 8th this year, but i see your point, there is a risk involved.
I'm not sure I'd rather have a 30 than a 35 either... didn't someone say that the 30 has a guaranteed salary, and the 35 does not?

 

[Dr. Jones]

I suppose... I'd tend to think that we would probably get the pick next year anyway, and it probably won't be as good as the 8th this year, but i see your point, there is a risk involved.
I'm not sure I'd rather have a 30 than a 35 either... didn't someone say that the 30 has a guaranteed salary, and the 35 does not?

That is true and certainly a factor. There's just some nice players that will be there at 30. There could actually be a fairly sizable difference between 30 and 35. Between those numbers, we could see Jeffrey Taylor, Doron Lamb, Darius Miller, Will Barton, etc all taken.

 

[shadler]

I like how everyone thinks we are missing out of some all star with the 8th pic. I say take the most gs is willing to give up for it because we have a lot of other options we can do in the draft or the off season. I like the 3 million to use on another pic and unprotected next year. I would like an unprotected next year, their latter pic this year and 3 million but that might be too much.

 

[northeast]

Because if the more likely is true and we don't get the pick, it's protected again next year .. and the year after that turns into two 2nd rounders. Sure, we could roll the dice and see if we can beat the odds, but if we don't the BEST we could hope for is a pick next year. I'm all for guranteeing the pick next year and them throwing in their early 2nd in '12. Obviously I'd rather have their #30 .. but I would take the 35.

This is misleading. Even if we don't get the pick this year or next year, we still might get it the following year.
I doubt that the Warriors successfully tank 3 years in a row just to tank the Jazz out of one pick, although it is possible.
I would lean towards taking a shot at the 8 this year, knowing that the Jazz would likely eventually get a first rounder , unless they really want someone a lot at 35.