South China Sea

[Stoked]

https://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/30/will_china_go_to_war_in_january_2013

There are numerous other articles about the issue.

Basically China has stated that they have the right to board and detain any ship that enters their territory illegally. By their territory they mean the vast majority of the South China Sea. This leaves them at odds with Japan, Phillipines, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore...

What do you think the odds are that a Chinese military vessel attempts to stop a ship? What do you think the US Navy response would be to such an act.

Scenario: A large cargo ship is going from Thailand to Mexico. It passes thru international waters that China now claims as their own. No one else recognizes these claims. Well China stops the vessel and forces it to turn back. This is reported to a US Navy battle group in the area. Does the US let them go and basically acknowledge Chinese claims to the South China Sea in direct opposition to several key allies in the region such as Japan and the Phillipines? Or do they go in and engage/standoff with the Chinese milatry vesels to prevent them from stopping/confiscating the ship and its crew and cargo and risk war with China?

 

[Hartsock]

Sounds intense, I'm interested now. Thanks for the post.

 

[Hotdog]

https://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/30/will_china_go_to_war_in_january_2013

There are numerous other articles about the issue.

Basically China has stated that they have the right to board and detain any ship that enters their territory illegally. By their territory they mean the vast majority of the South China Sea. This leaves them at odds with Japan, Phillipines, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore..

What do you think the odds are that a Chinese military vessel attempts to stop a ship? What do you think the US Navy response would be to such an act.

Scenario: A large cargo ship is going from Thailand to Mexico. It passes thru international waters that China now claims as their own. No one else recognizes these claims. Well China stops the vessel and forces it to turn back. This is reported to a US Navy battle group in the area. Does the US let them go and basically acknowledge Chinese claims to the South China Sea in direct opposition to several key allies in the region such as Japan and the Phillipines? Or do they go in and engage/standoff with the Chinese milatry vesels to prevent them from stopping/confiscating the ship and its crew and cargo and risk war with China?

How do they know who is who?

 

[franklin]

Stoked, if you keep studying up on this foreign policy stuff we'll have to nominate you for Secretary of State. What do you think we should do Mr. Secsy?

 

[babe]

This in not a theoretical "what if" scenario. Unfortunately, it is real.

https://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/11/philippines-china-stand-off-south-china-sea

The Philippines' largest warship couldn't stand off eight fishing boats and two spy ships from China. There was no respect given the Philippines either diplomatically or "on the ground". . . on the sea, I mean. The Chinese said "bug off" and the Philippine "navy" did.

This is not far from the former US navy base at Subic Bay, and I guess the Filipino people and government are starting to reconsider the value of having US bases on their soil.

Viet Nam is also wanting the United States to help maintain their sovereign claims, but we have a pinhead President who doesn't give a damn.

 

[Stoked]

Stoked, if you keep studying up on this foreign policy stuff we'll have to nominate you for Secretary of State. What do you think we should do Mr. Secsy?

Well we have treaties and are historical allies with some of the nations opposed to China. I see two options in my scenario.

1. Do nothing and effectively break our treaties and never be trusted again.

2. Fend off China with force if necessary.

I think the US needs to come out and straight up say those are international waters and the US will not allow our friends and allies or commerce of any kind to be harrased or impeded in any way.

 

[Stoked]

I agree Babe it is serious. China has pushed us into a corner. Now we can either stand up and be a man so to speak or bow our heads and let china have their way.

The Phillipines wont even stamp chinese passports directly because the chinese are putting a territorial map on the passports that shows their unrecognized claims.

China is betting the US will do nothing and so far they have been right. Wake the **** up!!!

 

[asian_roger]

I read a story in the New York Times that the Japanese is working very hard to counter this and is selling Vietnam and smaller Asian countries military ships. They are also planning to create mini "Japanese" coast guards in the area.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/world/asia/japan-expands-its-regional-military-role.html?pagewanted=2&hp&_r=0

 

[Hotdog]

Does the U.S. claim any bodies of water similar to this?

 

[Stoked]

I read a story in the New York Times that the Japanese is working very hard to counter this and is selling Vietnam and smaller Asian countries military ships. They are also planning to create mini "Japanese" coast guards in the area.

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/27/world/asia/japan-expands-its-regional-military-role.html?pagewanted=2&hp&_r=0

With the way I see everything heading I am very much behind Japan increasing its military capacity and stepping up in regional matters. A stronger Japan is good for the US.

 

[Stoked]

Does the U.S. claim any bodies of water similar to this?

As far as I know there is only one small contested claim with Canada in the northeast. However it is a remote location and has no real traffic moving thru it. Canada actually has control of it.

 

[Hotdog]

As far as I know there is only one small contested claim with Canada in the northeast. However it is a remote location and has no real traffic moving thru it. Canada actually has control of it.

Any claims uncontested?

 

[franklin]

I agree Babe it is serious. China has pushed us into a corner. Now we can either stand up and be a man so to speak or bow our heads and let china have their way.

The Phillipines wont even stamp chinese passports directly because the chinese are putting a territorial map on the passports that shows their unrecognized claims.

China is betting the US will do nothing and so far they have been right. Wake the **** up!!!

Let me give you this from an economic perspective.

This is the reason we've been trading china a bunch of paper for their low skill junk. We own these bitches now that they've become dumb enough to hinge their economy on ours.

If china gets frisky then we shut off all imports, the allies discontinue shipping them metals, coal, food, & oil, and we congratulate them on holding how ever much trillion plus treasuries that we are now not going to pay them anything for. China knows this of course & that's why they are fighting for international relevancy while digging for meaningful trade power with other players.

It's rare that the commie leaders say this but this is exactly why they say they hate us. We are too damn powerful and there is nothing they can do about it because we've game planned them into a corner. Their only strength is sending hordes of citizens armed with sticks & stones back through N. Korea, the Iran relations & such, or finally giving in by democratizing the nation. Too bad Israel is badass and would chimp chop Iran pretty quickly as long as they don't have nukes -- that's key.


As far as their navy goes....well, ours would have a good laugh at those rafts.

 

[Stoked]

It's not the Chinese navy that I am worried about. I am worried about their computer hacking abilities and the damage they might do to infrastructure here in the US. Damage to things like cell towers and power grids.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I appreciate all these conversations, but our daily-increasing debt is the one thing that is quickly (if not already) becoming the no-way-back issue. I have at least 50 friends that are $100MM+ guys .. and NONE of them are cavalier about what is going on. ALL of them are in almost a coma like phase .. knowing America is done. They are making moves not for their personal investments, but to protect their grandkids from a country that will have a far inferior identity from what they grew up in ..

make fun all you want, but there are REALLY smart people that have moved beyond concerned to it's over .. and it's not politics, it's economics.

 

[Hotdog]

Im not afraid of anyone shorter than me.

 

[franklin]

I appreciate all these conversations, but our daily-increasing debt is the one thing that is quickly (if not already) becoming the no-way-back issue. I have at least 50 friends that are $100MM+ guys .. and NONE of them are cavalier about what is going on. ALL of them are in almost a coma like phase .. knowing America is done. They are making moves not for their personal investments, but to protect their grandkids from a country that will have a far inferior identity from what they grew up in ..

make fun all you want, but there are REALLY smart people that have moved beyond concerned to it's over .. and it's not politics, it's economics.

3 deep level funny right here.

 

[babe]

Does the U.S. claim any bodies of water similar to this?

Well, at a level of complete, absolute ignorance about world affairs, I have to give you credit for recognizing US hegemony over virtually the whole world, via our lackey UN organization. Similarly, at a comparable level of understanding about Asian population I can see your point about how since you can't tell the difference between Asians how could anyone else.

The fact is, we haven't been "our own nation" since the Civil War, the watershed of actual liberty which, while being loosely associated with a supposed advancement in civil liberty for the black slaves, was also the foot in the door for British interests which became prominent in banking and the various robber baron cartels. While the nominal "robber barons" were "Americans" at the head of these organizations, the money behind them, and the philosophy behind them, was a new outreach of British Imperialism. As a result, today our various leading "interests" influential in American politics are generally quite the reverse of "American" and quite the tweedle dee to the twiddle dumb of British interests. And following from than, the UN is really pretty much the British ideal of oligarchy and sophisticated management of world affairs through puppet stooges.

The whole problem with the "New World Order" ideal of world governance is the fact that some of the "stooges" have become the gorillas in the bedroom of world dominance, and do in fact realize that their power is sufficient to re-order the whole "family" under their overt tyrrany.

And I bet you won't be too happy with how that works out.

Do nothing to defend the status quo in the South China sea, and it will be impossible to do anything about it anywhere else.

 

[babe]

Let me give you this from an economic perspective.

This is the reason we've been trading china a bunch of paper for their low skill junk. We own these bitches now that they've become dumb enough to hinge their economy on ours.

If china gets frisky then we shut off all imports, the allies discontinue shipping them metals, coal, food, & oil, and we congratulate them on holding how ever much trillion plus treasuries that we are now not going to pay them anything for. China knows this of course & that's why they are fighting for international relevancy while digging for meaningful trade power with other players.

It's rare that the commie leaders say this but this is exactly why they say they hate us. We are too damn powerful and there is nothing they can do about it because we've game planned them into a corner. Their only strength is sending hordes of citizens armed with sticks & stones back through N. Korea, the Iran relations & such, or finally giving in by democratizing the nation. Too bad Israel is badass and would chimp chop Iran pretty quickly as long as they don't have nukes -- that's key.


As far as their navy goes....well, ours would have a good laugh at those rafts.

This is an excellent, concise, rationale for western arrogance, mediated by "our" institutions like banks or the UN. From an oriental or more particularly Chinese view, however, it looks like vulnerability.

Before the Korean War, the Chinese studied MacArthur as the relevant man in Asia, and saw him as arrogant, hence vulnerable, and decided they could take him on. He did indeed prove vulnerable, not militarily but politically, and we ourselves unseated him as the relevant "man" in China, and showed ourselves to lack the will to achieve our national interests in Asia.

 

[DutchJazzer]

nuke china to kingdom come