Poll: Hayward vs. Millsap

[GVC]

Sure, but I can post up Favors and expect half-assed scoring.

To what end? Teams score roughly .2 points per possession more off-ball than on-ball. Favors doesn't command double teams and is, at best, a mediocre passer. This "fact" is only of value in late shot clocks...which are more numerous with a player like Favors on the court. If you're going to Favors for bailouts, you're not very good.

 

[franklin]

To what end? Teams score roughly .2 points per possession more off-ball than on-ball. Favors doesn't command double teams and is, at best, a mediocre passer. This "fact" is only of value in late shot clocks...which are more numerous with a player like Favors on the court. If you're going to Favors for bailouts, you're not very good.

We're both saying the same thing just from different frames. Remember:

Hayward's offense is highly dependent on everyone else creating his shots.

 

[Batman]

can I vote for cheese?

I'm sorry, Jako, but I am not the father of this thread. I lament the fact, and find myself in a melancholic stupor, but as I have learned, life isn't always fair. Just look to me for proof. The only women I ever loved, Rachael, died and she didn't even love me... She had the Jones for Harvey "douche" Dent. Hope you can overcome the bereftness of a cheese option.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

He can pretty much beat his defender any time he wants. Problem is, like you said, he doesn't know what to do after. Also, his driving strength is getting into a packed paint where passing to the wings is not an option. He needs cutters on dangerous passes to get assists (meaning he has to commit to the pass or shot which risks turning the ball).

Hayward has no floater. He tries to dribble around guys by using drastic head fakes instead of euro step/curl ball/footwork. He can't put a defender on his hip and attack the interior help defenders. He can't freeze the entire defense by blowing past his guy unexpectedly.

In short, Hayward isos are easy to guard both individually and as a team.

They are "easy" to guard if you count on him missing after beating you to a good look. If he starts making more of those, defenses will have to adjust by doubling sooner. A decent floater would be deadly. He does need cutters, but honestly every team needs cutters to keep defenses honest and to get the easiest shots. Any good dribble penetration has a need for consistent finishing ability to force defenders to come at them hard in order to allow for one of the most effective shots to be available. Force defenders to help, and have the now open player cut for a layup. It's a chess match and you have to be able to finish enough consistently to force the defense to open up the even easier shot.

You seem to be saying Hayward "can't" do it, but I think he has been improving every year in that area and that it is possible he will be a better finisher this year. If he finishes as "good" as last year, it's not good enough and yes he should stay as an off ball option. If he and Burke can be driving options it opens more things up for this offense.

I see it as possible, and I have hope. I don't think his dribble drive is as bad as you seem to think it is. He's not Westbrook or Rose, he's not Kobe or Jordan... but he's serviceable and improving.

 

[franklin]

He does need cutters, but honestly every team needs cutters to keep defenses honest and to get the easiest shots. Any good dribble penetration has a need for consistent finishing ability to force defenders to come at them hard in order to allow for one of the most effective shots to be available. Force defenders to help, and have the now open player cut for a layup. It's a chess match and you have to be able to finish enough consistently to force the defense to open up the even easier shot.

Depends on the play. A lot of NBA offense comes from forcing defenses to swarm the paint with all five guys while hoping to be able to get back to the arc. Miami runs a clear out for both Wade and James where either receives the pass above the high left block with the remaining four players spaced around the right side arc. James/Wade drive from left to right across the lane and the defense swarms to stop them ->> Ray Allen, corner sploosh. Houston used to run a ton of this with Drexler.

Hayward isn't good enough to iso the play so he comes from right to left off pnr, with players on the arc on both sides of the court. If he can get deep enough then the left corner can cut in for a bounce pass that Hayward has to make by reaching behind the weak side big helper. These passes are very efficient if made but they're dangerous because you have to commit to the pass or shooting the ball up at the rim. That's why the floater is so important -- he gets it off before the weak side help can challenge, or forces the help to commit which makes a shot fake and backside pass easy.

I realize this is basic and didn't need explaining but I wanted to be clear on what I meant.

You seem to be saying Hayward "can't" do it, but I think he has been improving every year in that area and that it is possible he will be a better finisher this year. If he finishes as "good" as last year, it's not good enough and yes he should stay as an off ball option. If he and Burke can be driving options it opens more things up for this offense.

I see it as possible, and I have hope. I don't think his dribble drive is as bad as you seem to think it is. He's not Westbrook or Rose, he's not Kobe or Jordan... but he's serviceable and improving.

I think you know how high I am on Hayward's development this season. Hope doesn't detract from the fact that he's terrible at creating his own scoring or creating for others. His ppp is between .6 and .7 when creating his own. That says a lot about how great the rest of his game is since his overall ppp is .97. The roughly 250 of 1000 plays of him scoring ppp @ .6-.7 is really dragging his efficiency down.

So yes, when I say he can't I mean he has so far been horrid at creating and needs to fix the holes. I have plenty of optimism that he can do that over time, especially since the Jazz have expressed a desire to give him the keys to the offense/team.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

Depends on the play. A lot of NBA offense comes from forcing defenses to swarm the paint with all five guys while hoping to be able to get back to the arc. Miami runs a clear out for both Wade and James where either receives the pass above the high left block with the remaining four players spaced around the right side arc. James/Wade drive from left to right across the lane and the defense swarms to stop them ->> Ray Allen, corner sploosh. Houston used to run a ton of this with Drexler.

Hayward isn't good enough to iso the play so he comes from right to left off pnr, with players on the arc on both sides of the court. If he can get deep enough then the left corner can cut in for a bounce pass that Hayward has to make by reaching behind the weak side big helper. These passes are very efficient if made but they're dangerous because you have to commit to the pass or shooting the ball up at the rim. That's why the floater is so important -- he gets it off before the weak side help can challenge, or forces the help to commit which makes a shot fake and backside pass easy.

I realize this is basic and didn't need explaining but I wanted to be clear on what I meant.



I think you know how high I am on Hayward's development this season. Hope doesn't detract from the fact that he's terrible at creating his own scoring or creating for others. His ppp is between .6 and .7 when creating his own. That says a lot about how great the rest of his game is since his overall ppp is .97. The roughly 250 of 1000 plays of him scoring ppp @ .6-.7 is really dragging his efficiency down.

So yes, when I say he can't I mean he has so far been horrid at creating and needs to fix the holes. I have plenty of optimism that he can do that over time, especially since the Jazz have expressed a desire to give him the keys to the offense/team.

My true hope is that Burke gets good at the PnR and dribble penetration while finding cutters or people on the arc. I am all for taking the best percentage shots and running the best percentage plays, but I also know we have to mix in different looks to keep the defense honest.

I also think he can, and agree he needs to improve if he's still going to be driving from high key positions. I'm more optimistic about this than Favors developing a consistent 15 footer.

I don't think we're too far from each other in what we are saying.

I'm having a tough time finding things to nitpick after all of the positive changes in the off season. I did like Millsap and think we will miss him, but understand why we had to get rid of him along with the others.

 

[8]

Hayward's first step isn't close, his dribble is loose/high, and he can't finish through contact. He's borderline elite off-ball. Why would you even want him initiating the offense? Play to his strengths.

All these things are true.
However, I think Hayward will improve a lot throughout his career. I still project him higher than most because I think he'll put in the work. He may never initiate offense at an elite efficiency, but I think he'll get better each year.

 

[[size/HUGE] fixed [/size]]

Bump.

All this talk of Hay being a #3 option might have to change. I think he can be a #2 option if he can get to the line like that. Oh, and FLOATERS required.

 

[Gameface]

Bump.

All this talk of Hay being a #3 option might have to change. I think he can be a #2 option if he can get to the line like that. Oh, and FLOATERS required.

Floaters grab your life vests!

 

[franklin]

What a troll thread.

 

[candrew]

I didn't read any of the posts but in thumbing through some Fantasy Basketball Magazines at the store today I found it rather amusing that one of them predicted career highs in points and rebounds for Millsap this season.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Hayward is better because he isn't limited by his size at his position.

/thread

This. Millsap's problem was that he couldn't defend or rebound versus length or athleticism. That's a serious problem for a starting PF to have. On top of that, his ability to create offense for himself was a bit limited and he couldn't maintain the energy level he needed as an undersized player for more than stretches during the season. His playoff numbers during the past few seasons speak for themselves. Lets see what Sap looks like in Atlanta. I was one of those who thought Sap was a slightly rich man's Carl Landry.

Meanwhile, Hayward has a nice skillset and has prototypical size for a wing.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Ideally, I think Hayward is a 3rd option and set-up guy. Kanter should be the #2 option. And someone who isn't on the team yet, but has a very diverse and potent offensive arsenal should be the #1 option. Hayward + Kanter + X = real contender. The Burke, Burks, Favors thing is nice too. Makes us deep and athletic.

X could be Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Andrew Wiggins (obviously) and maybe Dante Exum, but probably not.

I would be willing to trade Favors in a deal that got us Julius Randle.