Where did Paul Millsap go?

[LogGrad98]

In December his minutes have also declined by 10% (36.1 vs. 33.2) and his FT% has regressed to the mean (he was over 80% from the line in November). Those are probably the biggest determinants in the difference between his stats between November and December.

My comparison has been the last 10 games vs the rest of the season, since it seems to me that he has slipped some over the past 10 games or so. In that time, his minutes are down 6% from the rest of the season, but rebounds are down 18%, his FG% is down, though not by much, and as you noted his FG% is abysmal, and assists are down 30%. On the plus side his steals have nearly doubled. The minor difference in minutes and the FT% might explain some of the points differential but why has he slipped in other areas, especially rebounds?

My other question is why have his minutes slipped? Has he been injured. Granted the slip isn't very much at all, but his impact has been less over the past 10 games or so than it was in the first of the season. With all this being pretty minor, I am not at all in the "sky-is-falling" camp, just wonder if there is some underlying issue. Sure hope not and hope he rebounds to his earlier form soon.

 

[LogGrad98]

I haven't looked at any numbers, but I can assure you the assist numbers are wrong.

You are right. I went back to basketball-reference.com, copied the numbers into a spreadsheet (again) and ran the averages (again). Over the past 10 games he has average 1.8 assists, over the rest of the season he average 2.57 (actually 2.57142857), not 2.2. Drop-off appears to be worse than originally stated. The rest are correct.

 

[vslice02]

It might be better to break Millsap's stats down to his first 12 games versus his last 19 games:
Games 1-12: 21.5 ppg, 9.5 reb, 58% FG, 76% FT, 14.8 FG att/game, 5.3 FT att/game
Games 13-31: 15.2 ppg, 6.9 reb, 53% FG, 69% FT, 11.7 FG att/game, 3.9 FT att/game

Not only are his numbers down across the board, but most noteworthy his FG attempts per game and FG% have decreased. In my opinion, this is because he's now a primary focus on opponents' scouting reports and teams have now adjusted to Millsap's game to limit the number of easy baskets and looks he was getting.

 

[DukeJazz]

I agree completely with this post...Unfortunately, it makes too much god damn sense.

Exactly. Sloan isn't known for making sense. For some reason sloan thinks hayward is a good game closer?lol. I think i would rather have anyone else to play the 4th on our team instead of rookie hayward to try and lead us back.

 

[DukeJazz]

Why does it make too much sense?

Well for one bog al is a better player than millsap. Also at power forward big al would play sooo much better than millsap. Also millsap doesn't play any defense. Al always trys to get blocks. I bet he has way more than millsap this year.

 

[Borat]

It might be better to break Millsap's stats down to his first 12 games versus his last 19 games:
Games 1-12: 21.5 ppg, 9.5 reb, 58% FG, 76% FT, 14.8 FG att/game, 5.3 FT att/game
Games 13-31: 15.2 ppg, 6.9 reb, 53% FG, 69% FT, 11.7 FG att/game, 3.9 FT att/game

Not only are his numbers down across the board, but most noteworthy his FG attempts per game and FG% have decreased. In my opinion, this is because he's now a primary focus on opponents' scouting reports and teams have now adjusted to Millsap's game to limit the number of easy baskets and looks he was getting.

Interesting stats. Makes Boozer's 20 and 11 production on 56% shooting, when everyone knew he was the go to guy, that much more impressive. Millsap will turn it around though.

 

[DukeJazz]

Because it would be the slowest big tandem in the NBA. Jefferson will get burned to a crisp by most starting PFs in the league.

I would rather have a 6 ft 10 guy in. Power forwards are not emant to run around real fast so why would it matter how fast big al is? Also I bet al is the same speed as most of the starting power forwards especially with the type of practices the jazz have.

 

[DukeJazz]

Interesting stats. Makes Boozer's 20 and 11 production on 56% shooting, when everyone knew he was the go to guy, that much more impressive. Millsap will turn it around though.

facts speak louder than words. I'n what way has millsap shown he will turn it around?

 

[Borat]

facts speak louder than words. I'n what way has millsap shown he will turn it around?

Well, he showed he CAN produce at higher level as a starter when Booz went down and in play-offs last year, as well as first 21 games this year. So, there is certainly a merit to saying he will turn it around. Whether he will or not of course remains to be seen, but he has player better before, so it is certainly reasonable to say he can do it again. No?

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

Millsap puts up 20 and 10 and he's a great replacement for Bozzer - possibly an All Star. A bad game, and he's suddenly an undersized guy who can't ever be relied on to score, but works hard, kind of. Note: the whole team sucked last night besides Willy.

Paul is averaging 18 and 8 on 56% shooting.

I know you were rounding up and my criticism isn't of that but he's averaging 7.9 rebounds per game in 34.8 minutes per night. Legit-sized power forward or not, that blows, especially when we consider how much he hustles, and especially when we consider that teams also have to concern themselves with outrebounding AJ at the 5.

The bottom line is no matter how we cut it, the rebounding between Millstump and Avon Barksdale sucks ***.

 

[NCJazz]

I would have liked to have seen some Elson on Aldridge last night...

nasty!

 

[NUMBERICA]

I would rather have a 6 ft 10 guy in. Power forwards are not emant to run around real fast so why would it matter how fast big al is? Also I bet al is the same speed as most of the starting power forwards especially with the type of practices the jazz have.

Are you living in the 80's? PFs are play like taller SFs did in the 80's. The game has become increasingly perimeter-based, and the evolution of the PF in the NBA is evidence of that.