Douchebag K
Well-Known Member
I put Boris onto ignore when i realized every time i read a post of his my soul kindof died. Dutchjazzer is just pure comic relief. Blocked Thriller too and so glad.
What would world look like if only 4 degree Celsius warmer.
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I put Boris onto ignore when i realized every time i read a post of his my soul kindof died. Dutchjazzer is just pure comic relief. Blocked Thriller too and so glad.
I have seen other models that show increases in precipitation pretty much everywhere. And we know from the archaeological record that in eras of the past when we had similar levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and much higher temperatures that it was generally a wet tropical environment most everywhere. I think this is an inexact science to say the least, speculating what will happen.
Well, if you thought I said "Ocean" currents, maybe you should adjust your "meds"/blend a bit. Jet stream, cold fronts, are standard atmospheric weather forcasts considerations.
The site I linked presents several theoretical model projections. As a rule they do pretty good, but I've been watching this stuff for decades, and I'm just as good as they are. Sometimes better.
The professional models a few months ago were projecting the development of an El Nino in the Pacific, which for some fairly logical reasonings is generally considered a factor in suppressing Atlantic hurricanes. But my "eyeballs" on the ocean surface temp maps shows cold water upwelling in the stretch where El Nino is hatched by warmer surface waters, meaning La Nina and more Atlantic hurricanes historically and logically. And sure enough....
We've had El Nino for two years, a resurgence for a third year would be an anomaly. But they're still looking for it. My eyeballs on the maps also see a large warm surface anomaly north of the Hawaiian Islands going back towards Japan, which means the northern storm stream will likely be quite productive, as long as the salt-driven mixing currents stay in that pattern. I think that's part of the professional calculations in regard to El Nino, maybe. But technically, I would make a distinction. El Nino in my mind requires a low-latitude jet prevailing, and the part of the ocean that is showing warm is supporting a higher-latitude jet.
Since yesterday, the professionals have moved their projections further west, with the course right up the middle of Florida and on to Kentucky.
The cold front and jet has shifter further south and east, and could actually just move right on out to sea, strengthening the westward projections, maybe moving Irma clear off the west Florida coast. That would be the worst of all possible worlds, really, with the Gulf waters as warm as they are. An Irma on Katrina's path.
A further consideration is the solar storm that's hitting us. There was a solar event like this that some believe did the magic on Katrina to make it suddenly strengthen.
I generally treat my notions/projections as speculative and keep an eye out to see if it working out the way I thought or not. Nobody should rely on my "forecasts" and decide to sit out Irma because it's gonna miss Florida, for sure. Hope Peeks' Place is secured.
Most "models" don't tabulate the data and equations used, or admit all the "fudge factors" thrown in. In gross mass terms, warmer air can carry more water. warmer temps support more mass transport of water over the mountains or up into the Arctic. So I'm sure you're right.
Geologists call the first limestone deposits "Pre=Cambrian" because there's no fossils or anything living. Pure chemical Ca/Mg Carbonate, caused by the reaction of carbon dioxide with oxides in solution in the sea.
Before Life. We had so much carbon dioxide in our atmosphere we woulda hafta' a had gas masks and oxygen tanks to walk around in it.
But a funny thing happened. Photosynthesis was "invented" somehow. Almost all our oxygen had been consumed in making oxides of metals in the hot origins of Earth, but now, with things cooler, there would be oxygen in the air again through photosynthesis.
We had a lot of geologic ages where fossils and fuels were left in the muck as limestone layers grew rapidly. In Utah, the combined thickness of carbonate rock deposits is over 10000 feet, now substantially eroded to fill the valleys with rock and muck, with a little clay on the surface..... all that tonnage was air pressure once.. . . so we woulda' needed a diving suit to walk depressurized around in all that co2.
warming oceans outgas CO2 enough to sustain a claim by some that our rising CO2 is from warming the ocean...... Clearly, there were cycles in co2 before Man.
So anyway, yah. We had a greenhouse Earth with rainforests above the Arctic/Anarctic circles. Yep, there will be immense gas, oil, and coal deposits to be found in Antarctica.
dunno about others, but greenhouse conditions are good for life as I like it.
♪alt13
Well-Known Member
So...you're just making **** up now. It's one thing to have a radical interpretation of reality but it's another to supplant reality with your fantasies.
https://source.colostate.edu/forecast-team-continues-predict-average-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season/
As recently as May, the official ENSO prognostication was leaning towards El Nino, then they began to talk about "delay of ENSO development", while they went from ENSO positive to ENSO neutral. Damn professionals start pulling their wrong prognostications pretty quick when they're wrong.
My eyeballs on the surface temp maps see a lot of dark blue where they thought it was going to go red. I saw the first blue dots surfacing in May, began questioning the prediction then.
you're not very smart when you're just hostile to someone who has stated a fact.
My comments are relative to the latest predictions and models. So the "cold front" stretched across the Gulf of Mexico will have it's strongest "steering winds" on it's southeast quadrant. Yesterday that was over northern Florida as I said yesterday. Today it has moved way out into the Atlantic. A slight warm front has developed in the central Gulf south of LA which is opening things up for a more westerly course.
The professional models today have indeed moved the highest probable course westward about forty miles since yesterday. It does look like those prospects for steering winds turning Irma are less of factor today. Pretty sure the mathematical models look for signs of changes like these maybe a little better than my eyeballs can see from satellite pics. No doubt they saw the front moving by more than I thought, but didn't think it would move so far as it has by now. I was thinking it could just stay right there sorta like the front that trapped Harvey.
No, the models don't predict any slowing for Irma, and now predict significant weakening while it moves through FL and end it's storm status in Kentucky.
You gotta know when to hold em
Know when to fold em
Know when to walk away
Know when to SHUT THE **** UP
Better to be silent an thought a fool then to speak out an remove all doubt.
In JFC land, the libs believe everyone else are fools and have no doubts whatsoever about it. Just being here without proper lib credentials proves I'm willing to be thought a fool, though I'm less willing to just be a deliberate annoyance to the high priests of political prophesy than some "fools".
I don't credit their opinions with any authority at all. Let the record show, I said stuff that was right, despite their disbelief and credulity relying on corporate mainstream tools of public management for the fascist racist/racebaiting/America-demonizing/warmongering owners of our media, who never thought Trump had a chance to win and who still won't let the voters just have the pres they voted for....
So, anyway, checking again for the latest 3hr information update on Irma, the latest movement veered a bit northward in passing the remnant of the front that looked to be a factor yesterday, but Irma is now thought to be heading directly west heading close to the Cuban north shores, and is thought to begin heading north, almost direct north into the Florida keys, over the everglades and up the center of Florida. It has weakened another 5 mph and is now a cat 4, but is not expected to weaken further since the sheering winds will lessen as the front I was looking at just falls apart entirely.
eyeball forecasts at least have some advantage for open eyes seeing the changes in the environment in real time....profession forecasters and model makers just have to keep updating every few hours too. The various models in wunderground are pretty tight, but they still had one taking Irma just east of Miami and up to South Carolina for the first actual landfall. The most westwardly model takes it over the keys and to landfall in the FL panhandle.
So if I yap about the sitch and say stuff those outlier models say, I'm just giving the range of probabilities the professionals themselves are thinking about.
eyeball forecasts at least have some advantage for open eyes seeing the changes in the environment in real time....profession forecasters and model makers just have to keep updating every few hours too. The various models in wunderground are pretty tight, but they still had one taking Irma just east of Miami and up to South Carolina for the first actual landfall. The most westwardly model takes it over the keys and to landfall in the FL panhandle.
So if I yap about the sitch and say stuff those outlier models say, I'm just giving the range of probabilities the professionals themselves are thinking about.
True enough. It would be hard to follow conversations if I didn't already have a pretty good idea what Dutch was likely to say.
The Blue Elephant
Well-Known Member
I have a Canadian friend that always talks about if the breadbasket continues to shift north and extend to Canada it might make Canada have a larger influence on the world and become sort of a superpower. Is this likely to happen in our lifetime or our children's and grandchildren's lifetimes? 4 degrees Celsius seems like quite a bit.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Rush told me a few days ago that hurricanes and climate change is fake news.
Alex jones told me that the Feds have ray guns that can kill hurricanes.
Alex jones told me that the Feds have ray guns that can kill hurricanes.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
I want to live near banff if that's the case. Canada is just so beautiful.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Seriously *** wipe?
I was using satire. But What he actually said wasn't any better. Are you really trying to defend Rush?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ane-irma-is-fake-news/?utm_term=.1c9145b854f7