Probably fair enough to say you have other values which cause your staggering. Got any new brew in hand?
Rational CoViD-19 Discussion Thread: Science vs. Politics
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Probably fair enough to say you have other values which cause your staggering. Got any new brew in hand?
So I still haven't broken camp with this c20 topic yet. I saw a site that was arguing, with some reasons, that c20 will have a mortality rate like 3%
I don't think we can count on much yet.
First of all we need to test and meaure several parameters. People with antibodies to c20, proving a "base" of the exposed population. People who've noticed a symptom, and ignored it, just don't get into the stats unless they're tested that way. Another item that can only be investigated in a statistical manner, is a determination of infective "carriers", and a measure of the time they remain "carriers" capable of passing the virus.
The people who turn up to get counted, either with light symptoms or serious symptoms, do not form a mathematically valid "Prediction set". Some viruses do a double take on the population, infecting them on a second pass when they already have some antibodies to one variant of the virus, but not another variant.
I am seriously concerned about places like Iran, and other countries without much health infrastructure or reliable information sources. So much potential for really serious outbreaks. I see in the official publication Red linked here a debate about the pros and cons of serious mitigation efforts, and other measures. The really serious fact of c20 is the severity of secondary infections beginning in the lungs and spreading from there to other vital organs.
I don't think we can count on much yet.
First of all we need to test and meaure several parameters. People with antibodies to c20, proving a "base" of the exposed population. People who've noticed a symptom, and ignored it, just don't get into the stats unless they're tested that way. Another item that can only be investigated in a statistical manner, is a determination of infective "carriers", and a measure of the time they remain "carriers" capable of passing the virus.
The people who turn up to get counted, either with light symptoms or serious symptoms, do not form a mathematically valid "Prediction set". Some viruses do a double take on the population, infecting them on a second pass when they already have some antibodies to one variant of the virus, but not another variant.
I am seriously concerned about places like Iran, and other countries without much health infrastructure or reliable information sources. So much potential for really serious outbreaks. I see in the official publication Red linked here a debate about the pros and cons of serious mitigation efforts, and other measures. The really serious fact of c20 is the severity of secondary infections beginning in the lungs and spreading from there to other vital organs.
Nope and you can go **** yourself for your repeated personal attacks on that front.
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Well, I am going to take a long break from this. The site that was arguing 3% mortality rates had some arguments against other projections. It is fair enough that we should consider, and act, on the basis of worst-case scenarios, as a sort of doubly-cautious or doubly-vigilant attitude.
The "authorities" have produced early estimates like 2%. My first posts on the topic set it at 2.4%. With no real idea of how to prioritize our resources or actually treat it. A few weeks ago, I said we'd be doing human vaccine studies in a few weeks, with health care front-liners getting vaccinated by May. On track with that. And anyone who wants the shot in this country getting their shot by July. I also said we could slow it down with public health measures. All that is today's authoritative chatter.
Today, with public health measures and some basic notions of how to treat the patients, the mortality rates projected by authorities are like 1% The difference is knowing what to do.
South Korea's study there with extensive testing being done, exposing a better count of the exposed population, set mortality at 0.7%, even though treatment was not so good.
When I come back, I'm gonna make the case for effective treatments, and project stuff like a 0.2% mortality rate, and a much reduced total population getting exposed due to "dead-end carriers" whose infective careers just don't get passed on to the next person. That is what public health measures like a few weeks of travel restrictions, lots of social distance, lots of work and study from home can do, along with a lot of folks like me taking the break to get away solo for a while.
The "authorities" have produced early estimates like 2%. My first posts on the topic set it at 2.4%. With no real idea of how to prioritize our resources or actually treat it. A few weeks ago, I said we'd be doing human vaccine studies in a few weeks, with health care front-liners getting vaccinated by May. On track with that. And anyone who wants the shot in this country getting their shot by July. I also said we could slow it down with public health measures. All that is today's authoritative chatter.
Today, with public health measures and some basic notions of how to treat the patients, the mortality rates projected by authorities are like 1% The difference is knowing what to do.
South Korea's study there with extensive testing being done, exposing a better count of the exposed population, set mortality at 0.7%, even though treatment was not so good.
When I come back, I'm gonna make the case for effective treatments, and project stuff like a 0.2% mortality rate, and a much reduced total population getting exposed due to "dead-end carriers" whose infective careers just don't get passed on to the next person. That is what public health measures like a few weeks of travel restrictions, lots of social distance, lots of work and study from home can do, along with a lot of folks like me taking the break to get away solo for a while.
I want Game blocked from this thread, and his posts here deleted. Do that, and then delete this one.
Game has no idea what I know, or can know. And for all that, if I were a blind disabled man with a mouth ball for working the computer and a voice synthesizer, who has nothing to do but read a lot and think, the value of what I say would still be the value of what I can contribute, not a degree or a job or even a little support group of cronies. Ideas sink or swim on their own merits, after all.
Game has no idea what I know, or can know. And for all that, if I were a blind disabled man with a mouth ball for working the computer and a voice synthesizer, who has nothing to do but read a lot and think, the value of what I say would still be the value of what I can contribute, not a degree or a job or even a little support group of cronies. Ideas sink or swim on their own merits, after all.
It was just a matter of time before you posted about it, promosing your "wholly scientific viewpoint"
So go grab that second hand lab coat and and a magic marker. Instantly doubles your scientific prowess
You sound like the CCP... Except more whiney.
I guess freedom of speech is only for yourself.
You've put yourself out there to be made fun of and brought it on yourself. It's hard to take anything from your serious after what you claim. Especially based on how derogatory you are towards people.
DasJazz
Well-Known Member
The current US mortality rate stands at 115/7,663 or roughly 1.5%. Deaths do lead infections so 2% is probably more accurate. However, the 7,663 infection count does not include tests for the 80% to 85% of cases that are reported to be either asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild that they are never tested. This means the 7,663 count is only 15% to 20% of actual infections, meaning actual infections to date are between roughly 38,000 and 54,000. If the undercount estimate is true, the actual mortality rate for the Wuhan Virus is actually between 0.3% and 0.4% and much more aligned with flu mortality rates. Random population testing is needed to accurately evaluate the undercount because it’s the mortality rate that is one of the key reported factors driving this panic.
Red
Well-Known Member
Could you please cite your sources when quoting blocks of text? That way, others can check the source, check its veracity, and see if the source provides other relevant info, or not. This is usually most easily achieved by posting a link to the source, either before, or after, the quoted text. Thank you.
Dunning-Kruger personified.
I agree with those numbers. Who knows what the actual death rate is but I think it will be under 1% when we accurately get numbers.
But that's still adding a lot of deaths to a flu that's already kills a lot of people. The panic level is too high but we do need to be smart and use precaution. We should be doing that with the flu and well.
If you're sick, stay home. Employers should push for this. Wash you hands, cover your mouth, and that stuff.
Also keep in mind that this virus is likely to change like the flu and we might get much worse variations sometimes if it sticks around, which is likely.
I'm not convinced without extreme measures we can stop this though. We can do the social distancing and other suggestions for a month or two and it will die down. But then the next wave will come and the cycle will continue. We can't keep halting society indefinitely.
Self quarantine is a decent idea. But we have to keep in mind we have asymptomatic carriers that have shown to be 30+ days. It's more rare but it only takes a few to keep this going and start a new cycle of it.
I think you're getting close to reality here.
Of course, we can only speculate or possibly try to estimate what we do not or can not measure, count, and test.
CoViD-19 tests presently available are likely immunoassays, probably ELISA tests like I used to create in the lab so I could measure the presence, or quantity, of the antigen I was seeking. These tests are "Enzyme-Linked" meaning you link an enzyme that will permit amplification and visualization of the immuno-specific antigen.
Scientists can develop such tests for either antigens or a specific antibody. And just to note how far we're getting with PCR in the genetic testing, we have lots of scientists sorta daily reporting how the genome is changing. These guys can directly test for the presence of the genome, and 'see" miroheterogeneities that are appearing in the population of current virus samples.
However we can do it, we need to do a statistical evaluation of the population to estimate the number of people who have antibodies to the virus, as well as to estimate the number of people who have the virus onboard..... along with the reported "cases" however we determine that based on symptoms, however light or fleeting..... as well as a good count of actual patients and the outcomes of their illness.
One very concerning issue is the severity of the illness and the number of long-term impaired "recovered" patients.
Knowledge of all these things can help us move on from the sheer panic and sheer politicization of the pandemic.
You're not nearly as obnoxious as some, and I generally agree with this evaluation, but you still miss the point. I asked for people to stick to the science. You can do your political mumbo jumbo somewhere else.
I wouldn't even have objected to Game if he hadn't brought out the big charge that I was doing a personal attack on him. We've been over all this before. I have no serious objection to brews or even being a bit tipsy. Generally helps round off the edges of any damn argument. What I said was a joke, trying to deflect the off-topic remark, that's all it was. No personal attack.
On this topic, I happen to have some pretty good knowledge or experience, though of course its decades out of date unless I read up on the research now. I worked as a research tech for some of the founders of ARUP, known to be a top-notch outfit and involved in this CoViD-19 effort.
My intention here, despite my jokes about politics in the OP, is to actually stick to the rational science of this event.
I consider this post very excellent, and well-reasoned. I might be more of an alarmist myself than this.
I went to the ranch yesterday and was getting sick, and seriously worried I was getting this. I counted the days since I might have been exposed....19,12, 6 and 3.... in various situations on my trail. I have my own house in town, and can stay away from people here just as well as the ranch, and yet be where I could get help if I needed it. So I came back.
But it looks like I'm fine now.....
LOL. my "aroma theapy" from a Chlorox bottle can cure allergies, too.
I love you, too.
home-brewed clique attempting just dominate the webz.
you know, the thing about partisan politics is that the influenced base of fans on whatever side is just small enough no one really cares what anyone does or says. The number of gung-ho activists who do their little victory jig over every opponent that walks away in disgust is usually single-digit, like their IQs.
So I ask for science, and they come in to just wreck the thread. They own the place, and they can do it. They think.
outerspacefan
Well-Known Member
This thing has gone globally super crazy at all possible levels/aspects of life.
Mortality rates are not nice at all at certain ages, virus contagiousness timeframe appears to be longer than originaly reported... the whole friggin' package is becoming kind of nuts.
Just take care of yourselves and your people and be safe wherever you are.
Mortality rates are not nice at all at certain ages, virus contagiousness timeframe appears to be longer than originaly reported... the whole friggin' package is becoming kind of nuts.
Just take care of yourselves and your people and be safe wherever you are.