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Draft Homers List 2023

Saint Cy of JFC said:
He's a movement shooter, but there's a reason there arent many movement shooters in the NBA. Even if you are absolutely elite at it, it's hard to make it consistent and you have to run your offense in a way that generates those looks. What's he going to do when the entire offense isnt centered around freeing him up? Will he just be a spot up shooter? Who can he guard w/ his thinner frame and underwhelming length? Can he do anything when he's run off the line?
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Good post but ya he will be a spot up shooter and a floor spreader who defenses cant leave open to double on Lauri or anyone else. He will look great coming off screens like Klay. Yes he can do something when run off the line. Watch some footage of him. He can drive and score pretty good. Has a nice floater in the paint. When I first watched him all i saw was a reggie miller type (kind of what you are describing) but as I watched more i saw him doing things like steph off the dribble on drives.
 
HeatCheck said:
Add another vote for Coulibaly.

I don't think Whitmore falls past Detroit at 5.

Jazz can still pick a guard at 16 or even move up a few slots to potentially grab either JHS, Bufkin, or Wallace. Black might be the only one who gets taken in the top 10.
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I think the Jazz were probably planning to draft a guard at #9 (assuming one of the big wings didn't drop) and take Bilal at #16. Then Bilal's stock went up.
 
I’ll go with Sensabaugh cause it’s more fun.

But Wemby will be ridiculous. I am also a Hawkins fan and would be quite happy with him in Utah.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
He's a movement shooter, but there's a reason there arent many movement shooters in the NBA. Even if you are absolutely elite at it, it's hard to make it consistent and you have to run your offense in a way that generates those looks. What's he going to do when the entire offense isnt centered around freeing him up? Will he just be a spot up shooter? Who can he guard w/ his thinner frame and underwhelming length? Can he do anything when he's run off the line?
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if you watched him, you know he can absolutely hurt people when he's run off the three point line. and sure the entire offense won't be centered around freeing him up, but they won't need to be as the entire defense won't be focused on stopping him. looks will be so much easier to come by in the league with the primary scorers/ballhandlers attracting defenders and finding him spotting up. he's going to kill with nba spacing. and yes, hawkins is a plus on ball defender
 
seattlejazzfan said:
if you watched him, you know he can absolutely hurt people when he's run off the three point line. and sure the entire offense won't be centered around freeing him up, but they won't need to be as the entire defense won't be focused on stopping him. looks will be so much easier to come by in the league with the primary scorers/ballhandlers attracting defenders and finding him spotting up. he's going to kill with nba spacing. and yes, hawkins is a plus on ball defender
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I watched Hawkins more than any other prospect (live games as well, as well as in person). I know him better than any other prospect. Not to say my opinion on him is the gospel and infallible, but my read on him is pretty concrete. And no, he is not good when run off the 3pt line. I dont think he will have an easy transition to the NBA. If he does succeed above his draft slot, it will take a length adjustment time.
 
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
I watched Hawkins more than any other prospect (live games as well, as well as in person). I know him better than any other prospect. Not to say my opinion on him is the gospel and infallible, but my read on him is pretty concrete. And no, he is not good when run off the 3pt line. I dont think he will have an easy transition to the NBA. If he does succeed above his draft slot, it will take a length adjustment time.
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you're wrong and that's okay. we all have our turn.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
you're wrong and that's okay. we all have our turn.
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Again, idk if you just ignored what happens when he gets run off the line, but all you have to do at the NBA level to stop him is close out to his right hand and watch him do absolutely nothing positive going left.


Maybe he can improve on these things, there is certainly room to improve, but it's in no way a strength of his game. He was OK to good when UConn ran curls for him to his right hand he could attack off the run, but off the catch if he's looking for his 3pt shot and the defender is able to run him off his spot, the results werent usually good.

I know Hawkins game like the back of my hand. Knowing is only half the battle though and maybe he has some big time improvements in him.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
He's a movement shooter, but there's a reason there arent many movement shooters in the NBA. Even if you are absolutely elite at it, it's hard to make it consistent and you have to run your offense in a way that generates those looks. What's he going to do when the entire offense isnt centered around freeing him up? Will he just be a spot up shooter? Who can he guard w/ his thinner frame and underwhelming length? Can he do anything when he's run off the line?
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This really isn't super true. He won't have to run off 7 actions in the pros to get open looks and we are watching teams like Denver and Miami in the finals run tons of actions that Hawkins could be deadly in. UConn was centered on getting him open because the defense was centered on covering him. Also, college basketball is obviously different... but they road that offense all the way to a title. Other guys can play off of those actions just like pick and roll etc. If teams are covering his actions out there in the NBA in a similar way to how college teams covered them... the other players will have big opportunities. Movement shooters are a blessing.
 
And IDK if the "NBA Spacing" cure all pill (easily the lulziest thing people bring up as it would make you think every college player should be better in the NBA because of the magical spacing and applies to a much smaller group of players than most think) really applies to Hawkins. He's going to struggle mightily finishing against NBA bigs and NBA closeouts will be a harder animal to deal with. His lack of in-between game will hold him back. His strength was shooting over players and given his rep, NBA players are going to be all over him and make him prove that he can do that against NBA size. Defensively he will have to clean up a lot (as is the case with all rookies) and his frame and lack of length will be an issue. I also dont think I see a lot of natural processing speed in Hawkins for decisions that arent shooting, which makes me lower on his upside to develop those secondary skills.

That's why I think he's going to need a while to adjust to the NBA game. Having a reliable in-between game will be crucial for him. I certainly think it's in the card and not some pie in the sky ideal, but still, I wouldnt be on it vs more versatile players in the class IMO.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
This really isn't super true. He won't have to run off 7 actions in the pros to get open looks and we are watching teams like Denver and Miami in the finals run tons of actions that Hawkins could be deadly in. UConn was centered on getting him open because the defense was centered on covering him. Also, college basketball is obviously different... but they road that offense all the way to a title. Other guys can play off of those actions just like pick and roll etc. If teams are covering his actions out there in the NBA in a similar way to how college teams covered them... the other players will have big opportunities. Movement shooters are a blessing.
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And there's plenty of high level college movement shooters who have absolutely failed in the NBA. Hawkins just doesnt have enough standout skill or size in other areas to make it a safe bet for my liking.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
And there's plenty of high level college movement shooters who have absolutely failed in the NBA. Hawkins just doesnt have enough standout skill or size in other areas to make it a safe bet for my liking.
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I mean I'm sure you are right... because there are a lot of player types that have failed... I just don't see high level movement shooting as a player type that often fails... are there a ton of names that come to your mind? Sincerely asking and not trying to be a dick.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
And IDK if the "NBA Spacing" cure all pill (easily the lulziest thing people bring up as it would make you think every college player should be better in the NBA because of the magical spacing and applies to a much smaller group of players than most think) really applies to Hawkins. He's going to struggle mightily finishing against NBA bigs and NBA closeouts will be a harder animal to deal with. His lack of in-between game will hold him back. His strength was shooting over players and given his rep, NBA players are going to be all over him and make him prove that he can do that against NBA size. Defensively he will have to clean up a lot (as is the case with all rookies) and his frame and lack of length will be an issue. I also dont think I see a lot of natural processing speed in Hawkins for decisions that arent shooting, which makes me lower on his upside to develop those secondary skills.

That's why I think he's going to need a while to adjust to the NBA game. Having a reliable in-between game will be crucial for him. I certainly think it's in the card and not some pie in the sky ideal, but still, I wouldnt be on it vs more versatile players in the class IMO.
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Its okay to consider what a Hawkins curl around a screen looks like when a defense has to account for that and the fact that the other players are nba players.... and the fact that a big can't camp at the rim. Maybe he doesn't finish but a big actually has to rotate to cove the rim it opens up other stuff. Its more like... if they do cover him and stick to him like you say they will... how much other stuff does that open up.

Its not a spacing cure all pill... its a "how will this look in the nba?" question. And if you aren't asking that with every prospect... then what the hell are you doing?
 
I seriously can't find the movement shooter draft fails. Maybe they just don't get drafted a lot? Unfamiliar with Nesmith in college but maybe he was one?

I'm just going to go ahead and believe that the movement shooting will translate as its about speed, endurance, quick release, and less about height and length of the guys guarding him. I think he will get less attention on the scouting report and likely have less stuff run for him... but still might be a super valuable weapon and is an amazing building block if he is able to develop some other stuff off of it.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean I'm sure you are right... because there are a lot of player types that have failed... I just don't see high level movement shooting as a player type that often fails... are there a ton of names that come to your mind? Sincerely asking and not trying to be a dick.
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Players who were movement shooters (to what % and degree of their shots were movement is up to your memory, ability research the past) in college who have played in the NBA come to mind (mind you not all of these players are failures, just trying to list them all): Aaron Nesmith, Matt Thomas, Malik Beasley (very comparable to Hawkins IMO from a physical/athleticism standpoint and more or less who I expect Hawkins to develop into at the NBA level), Sam Hauser, Corey Kispert.


And yes, I know the rebuttal is going to be Hawkins has athleticism, and I would agree and that's what makes Hawkins someone who is knocking on the top 20. I dont think he is going to be a failure in the NBA level.

I just think most movement shooters come into the NBA and realize that movement shooting in the NBA is 100% more difficult than in college and they have to have some other part of their game to fall back on or they have to have very good size. THat's partly what makes it hard to remember the names, because the ones who succeed elevate their games. Also most college movement shooters are movement shooters because they are terrible athletes who have to do it that way to get their shot off, so they fail hard in the NBA (see Matt Thomas).
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Its okay to consider what a Hawkins curl around a screen looks like when a defense has to account for that and the fact that the other players are nba players.... and the fact that a big can't camp at the rim. Maybe he doesn't finish but a big actually has to rotate to cove the rim it opens up other stuff. Its more like... if they do cover him and stick to him like you say they will... how much other stuff does that open up.

Its not a spacing cure all pill... its a "how will this look in the nba?" question. And if you aren't asking that with every prospect... then what the hell are you doing?
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Because the opposite seems to be rarely brought up, what happens when you can't shoot over a plethora of 6'1 combo guards. Or when you have to drive into an athletic big man who can move his feet on the perimeter and protect the rim (things that rarely exist in college).

And I think we know what curls for shooters look like. They are hard to guard and a pain in the ***, that much is true, but disciplined defenses can deal with them and Hawkins lack of in-between game will make it easier.

We see Duncan Robinson starting to do some playmakey type stuff, but that's after how many years in the NBA? It's not something that is just super easy for these types of guys to do and he hasn't shown much in that avenue.

I have no idea where you have him ranked this draft, but for me he is solidly in the 20-25ish range. I just can't put him over guys like Jett Howard or Gradey Dick who have more complete games with more size. And I value the wings/forwards who have size like Jaquez/Hendricks/Klintman/Lewis over him. Or a guy like Keyonte who has more projectable on-ball ability.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Players who were movement shooters (to what % and degree of their shots were movement is up to your memory, ability research the past) in college who have played in the NBA come to mind (mind you not all of these players are failures, just trying to list them all): Aaron Nesmith, Matt Thomas, Malik Beasley (very comparable to Hawkins IMO from a physical/athleticism standpoint and more or less who I expect Hawkins to develop into at the NBA level), Sam Hauser, Corey Kispert.


And yes, I know the rebuttal is going to be Hawkins has athleticism, and I would agree and that's what makes Hawkins someone who is knocking on the top 20. I dont think he is going to be a failure in the NBA level.

I just think most movement shooters come into the NBA and realize that movement shooting in the NBA is 100% more difficult than in college and they have to have some other part of their game to fall back on or they have to have very good size. THat's partly what makes it hard to remember the names, because the ones who succeed elevate their games. Also most college movement shooters are movement shooters because they are terrible athletes who have to do it that way to get their shot off, so they fail hard in the NBA (see Matt Thomas).
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I mean if he was Beasley with better defense (Malik was horrendous with effort and IQ... Hawkins projects to be better imo) that isn't bad at all. Matty Ice was small and unathletic. Nesmith only shot well for 14 games. Kispert is fine... he's bigger but Hawkins is faster... moves well.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I mean if he was Beasley with better defense (Malik was horrendous with effort and IQ... Hawkins projects to be better imo) that isn't bad at all. Matty Ice was small and unathletic. Nesmith only shot well for 14 games. Kispert is fine... he's bigger but Hawkins is faster... moves well.
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And the other side of this is there have been guys like Herro, Bane, Quickley (?), JJ Reddick, etc.
 
Not sure I have one. I don’t think Cam Whitmore applies. Probably would’ve been Wallace a bit earlier. Right now it’s Podz as I am just kinda suddenly choosing to believe in his crazy shooting/floater + NBA spacing (that might free up the paint enough) + good size for a guard. He feels like one of those players you look back and go “huh, I guess nobody should be surprised he’s a blowtorch but here we are.”

Just another note on Podz: both Steph and Dame came from nothing schools. Not to mention Steve Nash.
 
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