Draft Homers List 2023

[Saint Cy of JFC]

you're wrong and that's okay. we all have our turn.

Again, idk if you just ignored what happens when he gets run off the line, but all you have to do at the NBA level to stop him is close out to his right hand and watch him do absolutely nothing positive going left.


Maybe he can improve on these things, there is certainly room to improve, but it's in no way a strength of his game. He was OK to good when UConn ran curls for him to his right hand he could attack off the run, but off the catch if he's looking for his 3pt shot and the defender is able to run him off his spot, the results werent usually good.

I know Hawkins game like the back of my hand. Knowing is only half the battle though and maybe he has some big time improvements in him.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

He's a movement shooter, but there's a reason there arent many movement shooters in the NBA. Even if you are absolutely elite at it, it's hard to make it consistent and you have to run your offense in a way that generates those looks. What's he going to do when the entire offense isnt centered around freeing him up? Will he just be a spot up shooter? Who can he guard w/ his thinner frame and underwhelming length? Can he do anything when he's run off the line?

This really isn't super true. He won't have to run off 7 actions in the pros to get open looks and we are watching teams like Denver and Miami in the finals run tons of actions that Hawkins could be deadly in. UConn was centered on getting him open because the defense was centered on covering him. Also, college basketball is obviously different... but they road that offense all the way to a title. Other guys can play off of those actions just like pick and roll etc. If teams are covering his actions out there in the NBA in a similar way to how college teams covered them... the other players will have big opportunities. Movement shooters are a blessing.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And IDK if the "NBA Spacing" cure all pill (easily the lulziest thing people bring up as it would make you think every college player should be better in the NBA because of the magical spacing and applies to a much smaller group of players than most think) really applies to Hawkins. He's going to struggle mightily finishing against NBA bigs and NBA closeouts will be a harder animal to deal with. His lack of in-between game will hold him back. His strength was shooting over players and given his rep, NBA players are going to be all over him and make him prove that he can do that against NBA size. Defensively he will have to clean up a lot (as is the case with all rookies) and his frame and lack of length will be an issue. I also dont think I see a lot of natural processing speed in Hawkins for decisions that arent shooting, which makes me lower on his upside to develop those secondary skills.

That's why I think he's going to need a while to adjust to the NBA game. Having a reliable in-between game will be crucial for him. I certainly think it's in the card and not some pie in the sky ideal, but still, I wouldnt be on it vs more versatile players in the class IMO.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This really isn't super true. He won't have to run off 7 actions in the pros to get open looks and we are watching teams like Denver and Miami in the finals run tons of actions that Hawkins could be deadly in. UConn was centered on getting him open because the defense was centered on covering him. Also, college basketball is obviously different... but they road that offense all the way to a title. Other guys can play off of those actions just like pick and roll etc. If teams are covering his actions out there in the NBA in a similar way to how college teams covered them... the other players will have big opportunities. Movement shooters are a blessing.

And there's plenty of high level college movement shooters who have absolutely failed in the NBA. Hawkins just doesnt have enough standout skill or size in other areas to make it a safe bet for my liking.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And there's plenty of high level college movement shooters who have absolutely failed in the NBA. Hawkins just doesnt have enough standout skill or size in other areas to make it a safe bet for my liking.

I mean I'm sure you are right... because there are a lot of player types that have failed... I just don't see high level movement shooting as a player type that often fails... are there a ton of names that come to your mind? Sincerely asking and not trying to be a dick.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

And IDK if the "NBA Spacing" cure all pill (easily the lulziest thing people bring up as it would make you think every college player should be better in the NBA because of the magical spacing and applies to a much smaller group of players than most think) really applies to Hawkins. He's going to struggle mightily finishing against NBA bigs and NBA closeouts will be a harder animal to deal with. His lack of in-between game will hold him back. His strength was shooting over players and given his rep, NBA players are going to be all over him and make him prove that he can do that against NBA size. Defensively he will have to clean up a lot (as is the case with all rookies) and his frame and lack of length will be an issue. I also dont think I see a lot of natural processing speed in Hawkins for decisions that arent shooting, which makes me lower on his upside to develop those secondary skills.

That's why I think he's going to need a while to adjust to the NBA game. Having a reliable in-between game will be crucial for him. I certainly think it's in the card and not some pie in the sky ideal, but still, I wouldnt be on it vs more versatile players in the class IMO.

Its okay to consider what a Hawkins curl around a screen looks like when a defense has to account for that and the fact that the other players are nba players.... and the fact that a big can't camp at the rim. Maybe he doesn't finish but a big actually has to rotate to cove the rim it opens up other stuff. Its more like... if they do cover him and stick to him like you say they will... how much other stuff does that open up.

Its not a spacing cure all pill... its a "how will this look in the nba?" question. And if you aren't asking that with every prospect... then what the hell are you doing?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I seriously can't find the movement shooter draft fails. Maybe they just don't get drafted a lot? Unfamiliar with Nesmith in college but maybe he was one?

I'm just going to go ahead and believe that the movement shooting will translate as its about speed, endurance, quick release, and less about height and length of the guys guarding him. I think he will get less attention on the scouting report and likely have less stuff run for him... but still might be a super valuable weapon and is an amazing building block if he is able to develop some other stuff off of it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I mean I'm sure you are right... because there are a lot of player types that have failed... I just don't see high level movement shooting as a player type that often fails... are there a ton of names that come to your mind? Sincerely asking and not trying to be a dick.

Players who were movement shooters (to what % and degree of their shots were movement is up to your memory, ability research the past) in college who have played in the NBA come to mind (mind you not all of these players are failures, just trying to list them all): Aaron Nesmith, Matt Thomas, Malik Beasley (very comparable to Hawkins IMO from a physical/athleticism standpoint and more or less who I expect Hawkins to develop into at the NBA level), Sam Hauser, Corey Kispert.


And yes, I know the rebuttal is going to be Hawkins has athleticism, and I would agree and that's what makes Hawkins someone who is knocking on the top 20. I dont think he is going to be a failure in the NBA level.

I just think most movement shooters come into the NBA and realize that movement shooting in the NBA is 100% more difficult than in college and they have to have some other part of their game to fall back on or they have to have very good size. THat's partly what makes it hard to remember the names, because the ones who succeed elevate their games. Also most college movement shooters are movement shooters because they are terrible athletes who have to do it that way to get their shot off, so they fail hard in the NBA (see Matt Thomas).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Its okay to consider what a Hawkins curl around a screen looks like when a defense has to account for that and the fact that the other players are nba players.... and the fact that a big can't camp at the rim. Maybe he doesn't finish but a big actually has to rotate to cove the rim it opens up other stuff. Its more like... if they do cover him and stick to him like you say they will... how much other stuff does that open up.

Its not a spacing cure all pill... its a "how will this look in the nba?" question. And if you aren't asking that with every prospect... then what the hell are you doing?

Because the opposite seems to be rarely brought up, what happens when you can't shoot over a plethora of 6'1 combo guards. Or when you have to drive into an athletic big man who can move his feet on the perimeter and protect the rim (things that rarely exist in college).

And I think we know what curls for shooters look like. They are hard to guard and a pain in the ***, that much is true, but disciplined defenses can deal with them and Hawkins lack of in-between game will make it easier.

We see Duncan Robinson starting to do some playmakey type stuff, but that's after how many years in the NBA? It's not something that is just super easy for these types of guys to do and he hasn't shown much in that avenue.

I have no idea where you have him ranked this draft, but for me he is solidly in the 20-25ish range. I just can't put him over guys like Jett Howard or Gradey Dick who have more complete games with more size. And I value the wings/forwards who have size like Jaquez/Hendricks/Klintman/Lewis over him. Or a guy like Keyonte who has more projectable on-ball ability.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Players who were movement shooters (to what % and degree of their shots were movement is up to your memory, ability research the past) in college who have played in the NBA come to mind (mind you not all of these players are failures, just trying to list them all): Aaron Nesmith, Matt Thomas, Malik Beasley (very comparable to Hawkins IMO from a physical/athleticism standpoint and more or less who I expect Hawkins to develop into at the NBA level), Sam Hauser, Corey Kispert.


And yes, I know the rebuttal is going to be Hawkins has athleticism, and I would agree and that's what makes Hawkins someone who is knocking on the top 20. I dont think he is going to be a failure in the NBA level.

I just think most movement shooters come into the NBA and realize that movement shooting in the NBA is 100% more difficult than in college and they have to have some other part of their game to fall back on or they have to have very good size. THat's partly what makes it hard to remember the names, because the ones who succeed elevate their games. Also most college movement shooters are movement shooters because they are terrible athletes who have to do it that way to get their shot off, so they fail hard in the NBA (see Matt Thomas).

I mean if he was Beasley with better defense (Malik was horrendous with effort and IQ... Hawkins projects to be better imo) that isn't bad at all. Matty Ice was small and unathletic. Nesmith only shot well for 14 games. Kispert is fine... he's bigger but Hawkins is faster... moves well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean if he was Beasley with better defense (Malik was horrendous with effort and IQ... Hawkins projects to be better imo) that isn't bad at all. Matty Ice was small and unathletic. Nesmith only shot well for 14 games. Kispert is fine... he's bigger but Hawkins is faster... moves well.

And the other side of this is there have been guys like Herro, Bane, Quickley (?), JJ Reddick, etc.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Not sure I have one. I don’t think Cam Whitmore applies. Probably would’ve been Wallace a bit earlier. Right now it’s Podz as I am just kinda suddenly choosing to believe in his crazy shooting/floater + NBA spacing (that might free up the paint enough) + good size for a guard. He feels like one of those players you look back and go “huh, I guess nobody should be surprised he’s a blowtorch but here we are.”

Just another note on Podz: both Steph and Dame came from nothing schools. Not to mention Steve Nash.