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2024-2025 Tank Race

I think BN will not be in the race. They play quite well and they can even think about PO.
Wonder about Philly, will they take the plug out? This team seems close to implode...
 
FrenchJazzFa said:
I think BN will not be in the race. They play quite well and they can even think about PO.
Wonder about Philly, will they take the plug out? This team seems close to implode...
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Brooklyn FO absolutely wants to be bad. They will start selling as we get closer to the deadline. Luckily they look like they will be far enough ahead of us at that time that they shouldn't be a threat.

I still don't think we need to worry about Philly. They will win enough games by tanking season that it will not look smart to try and be bottom 2, which is where they would need to be to guarantee a top 6 pick.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Brooklyn FO absolutely wants to be bad. They will start selling as we get closer to the deadline. Luckily they look like they will be far enough ahead of us at that time that they shouldn't be a threat.

I still don't think we need to worry about Philly. They will win enough games by tanking season that it will not look smart to try and be bottom 2, which is where they would need to be to guarantee a top 6 pick.
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You should add NOP to the list. They may end up packing it in if they can't get going soon. A loss tomorrow would be pretty bad for them as their schedule is pretty ugly before the play-in break. I don't think we see Zion until January.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
You should add NOP to the list. They may end up packing it in if they can't get going soon. A loss tomorrow would be pretty bad for them as their schedule is pretty ugly before the play-in break. I don't think we see Zion until January.
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I'm monitoring closely, and will most likely add when I adjust this next week. Hopefully if they do get added they won't be on the tanking list for long.

They just started getting some guys back and looked competitive in their game last night. Murray comes back tomorrow. Ingram shouldn't be out long term. I think the main thing is being in the West, and already not being a top team, means they will have a hard time getting back in the mix for a top 6 spot. I'm not sure at what point they decide tanking looks better than a play off push. Hopefully it's far enough in to the season that they have racked up enough wins that we don't have to worry about them.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I'm monitoring closely, and will most likely add when I adjust this next week. Hopefully if they do get added they won't be on the tanking list for long.

They just started getting some guys back and looked competitive in their game last night. Murray comes back tomorrow. Ingram shouldn't be out long term. I think the main thing is being in the West, and already not being a top team, means they will have a hard time getting back in the mix for a top 6 spot. I'm not sure at what point they decide tanking looks better than a play off push. Hopefully it's far enough in to the season that they have racked up enough wins that we don't have to worry about them.
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Top 6 is dead and gone for them... and honestly... if they are realistic the play-in is a longshot. Ingram is always in and out of the lineup. The Zion news leads me to believe he is out until like January. Their schedule lightens up in January but it will be too late to compete for a play in spot imo. A win tomorrow would help brighten their prospects but I could see them going like 2-5 before the play in break and being 7-8 games out of the play in at that point. It would likely be easy to sit Ingram or Zion as they are always getting hurt or coming back from injury. Herb has a shoulder injury and that is one of the easiest ones to re-injure. Even if Ingram, Murray, Jones get healthy for a while what does that get them in the West? Is that a team that wins at a 35 win pace? Higher or lower?

If I was them I would pack it in but Griffin may have his job on the line. They also need to make one move to drop below the tax as they are just barely over right now.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Top 6 is dead and gone for them... and honestly... if they are realistic the play-in is a longshot. Ingram is always in and out of the lineup. The Zion news leads me to believe he is out until like January. Their schedule lightens up in January but it will be too late to compete for a play in spot imo. A win tomorrow would help brighten their prospects but I could see them going like 2-5 before the play in break and being 7-8 games out of the play in at that point. It would likely be easy to sit Ingram or Zion as they are always getting hurt or coming back from injury. Herb has a shoulder injury and that is one of the easiest ones to re-injure. Even if Ingram, Murray, Jones get healthy for a while what does that get them in the West? Is that a team that wins at a 35 win pace? Higher or lower?

If I was them I would pack it in but Griffin may have his job on the line. They also need to make one move to drop below the tax as they are just barely over right now.
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They are definitely a real threat to the tank race. The Hope is that they win enough over the next two months to be out of range from us when tanking season really starts. I don't think it's typical for teams with playoff hopes like NOP to pack it in this soon in to the season, even if it might make sense from the outside for them to do so.
 
The Pelicans have almost all of their squad back next game IIRC. If not, everyone is day to day besides Zion. I think it will be difficult to tell all those players to quit their year so soon. Like at some point positioning doesn’t matter. The players are going to play. We don’t exist in a video game where we can fast forward to the next year.

The Jazz are trying to tank…we’re not telling Lauri to quit his year less than 20 games into the season. I could see the Pelicans setting up for a late season tank, but I don’t think they’ll threaten top 3.
 
KqWIN said:
The Pelicans have almost all of their squad back next game IIRC. If not, everyone is day to day besides Zion. I think it will be difficult to tell all those players to quit their year so soon. Like at some point positioning doesn’t matter. The players are going to play. We don’t exist in a video game where we can fast forward to the next year.

The Jazz are trying to tank…we’re not telling Lauri to quit his year less than 20 games into the season. I could see the Pelicans setting up for a late season tank, but I don’t think they’ll threaten top 3.
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Alvarado is out for a while still. Herb I believe is close but maybe a week away. I guess what I am saying is that team is already pretty mid without Zion. Ingram gets an ankle or a knee and they won't have to ask all those guys to sit as they will suck already. Trey/Ingram/33 yo CJ is tough to bank on being healthy over any kind of long term.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Alvarado is out for a while still. Herb I believe is close but maybe a week away. I guess what I am saying is that team is already pretty mid without Zion. Ingram gets an ankle or a knee and they won't have to ask all those guys to sit as they will suck already. Trey/Ingram/33 yo CJ is tough to bank on being healthy over any kind of long term.
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Being mid doesn't sound like top 3 tanking to me. If they are mid for like 30 games of the season, they are pretty much out of the top 3 race IMO.
 
KqWIN said:
Being mid doesn't sound like top 3 tanking to me. If they are mid for like 30 games of the season, they are pretty much out of the top 3 race IMO.
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We might be mid for 30 games. Doesn't mean .500. If we go 10-20 or 12-18 over a 30 game span can still end with 22-26 wins and be in the thick of that tank race. Teams will have good stretches.

Compare our roster with their roster without Zion... now we aren't playing it straight but its just not very good. And they still need to drop below the tax and making a deal is going to require moving a piece with at least a medium salary. If BI is somewhat healthy and they have an opportunity to move him I can see that leading to "punting" on an already terrible season.

I'm also a little doubtful that they get healthy. They have had a lot of struggles with their key players over the years and are starting from a position of severely injured. If it was about staying healthy vs. getting healthy I'd feel better about the long term health prognosis. Players have setbacks.

All I am saying is that they are a really bad team until they prove otherwise to me. Whether tanking with intention or not they are a threat until proven otherwise.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
We might be mid for 30 games. Doesn't mean .500. If we go 10-20 or 12-18 over a 30 game span can still end with 22-26 wins and be in the thick of that tank race. Teams will have good stretches.

Compare our roster with their roster without Zion... now we aren't playing it straight but its just not very good. And they still need to drop below the tax and making a deal is going to require moving a piece with at least a medium salary. If BI is somewhat healthy and they have an opportunity to move him I can see that leading to "punting" on an already terrible season.

I'm also a little doubtful that they get healthy. They have had a lot of struggles with their key players over the years and are starting from a position of severely injured. If it was about staying healthy vs. getting healthy I'd feel better about the long term health prognosis. Players have setbacks.

All I am saying is that they are a really bad team until they prove otherwise to me. Whether tanking with intention or not they are a threat until proven otherwise.
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I don't think a 27 win team is what I would consider mid, but if we do have a decent stretch for 30 games I'd say we're also not likely to be top 3. That goes for any team, it's just easier to see how the Pelicans get there. Right now I'd say they are a mid team even without Zion.

They've been injured almost the entire year and are about as good as we are. We've had some injuries but nothing close to what they have had. Anything can happen, but I think the likelihood of them improving over the course of the season is greater than our own. I would keep an eye on them and include them on tank watch, but there are probably 5-6 teams I'm more concerned about. Bottom 3 would be fairly shocking to me.
 
KqWIN said:
I don't think a 27 win team is what I would consider mid, but if we do have a decent stretch for 30 games I'd say we're also not likely to be top 3. That goes for any team, it's just easier to see how the Pelicans get there. Right now I'd say they are a mid team even without Zion.

They've been injured almost the entire year and are about as good as we are. We've had some injuries but nothing close to what they have had. Anything can happen, but I think the likelihood of them improving over the course of the season is greater than our own. I would keep an eye on them and include them on tank watch, but there are probably 5-6 teams I'm more concerned about. Bottom 3 would be fairly shocking to me.
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Unless we get more grimy or make a trade I don't think we are a bottom 3 team. We could also have a legit injury that costs Lauri/Walker/Sexton 6 weeks that might put us there. I think we end up the next tier up.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Unless we get more grimy or make a trade I don't think we are a bottom 3 team. We could also have a legit injury that costs Lauri/Walker/Sexton 6 weeks that might put us there. I think we end up the next tier up.
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I expect we'll get grimy at some point, we did so when the incentives were significantly less. But it wouldn't surprise me if we're not bottom 3....The only team I feel confident that is bottom 3 is WAS, but I'd say we're between 2-4 in power rankings at the moment. NOP is beyond that for me. For us, it will come down to how soon Hardy gives up. If he really wants wins like he did against NYK, it will certainly come at the cost of lotto balls.

Don't think the expectation should have been top 3 as long as Lauri was here though, so I'm not too bothered by it. There are other guys I'd certainly be willing to get rid of in a tank effort though ;)
 
On this date last year the Jazz had the 7th worst record vs the 5th worst record now. So, they performed slightly worse so far but it does not look like a serious, dedicated tank at all. The entire difference in the standings is probably due to the mediocre start by Lauri, otherwise the Jazz would be exactly in the same place as last year.
 
KqWIN said:
I expect we'll get grimy at some point, we did so when the incentives were significantly less. But it wouldn't surprise me if we're not bottom 3....The only team I feel confident that is bottom 3 is WAS, but I'd say we're between 2-4 in power rankings at the moment. NOP is beyond that for me. For us, it will come down to how soon Hardy gives up. If he really wants wins like he did against NYK, it will certainly come at the cost of lotto balls.

Don't think the expectation should have been top 3 as long as Lauri was here though, so I'm not too bothered by it. There are other guys I'd certainly be willing to get rid of in a tank effort though ;)
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I know. We could trade Walker and get bottom 3 for sure.
 
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