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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

Tre Johnson's an incredibly elite shooter, but he's got like... absolutely nothing off the dribble.

His moves look fine when you first start watching him, but he gets literally no separation ever. Just doesn't have the tools to beat anyone.

Definitely going to have be mostly an off-ball shooter in the NBA who can like dribble a little off screens.

I have him like #3, because... Well, there's no one else to put at #3... But he's a weak #3 prospect.
 
Here are the interesting/relevant bits from Vecenie:

3. Portland Trail Blazers​

Tre Johnson | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Texas​

Johnson was the most impressive player I saw working out during my trip to the U.S. He had one of the best shooting workouts I’ve ever seen from a teenage player, showcasing a serious-minded intentionality about how he goes about his craft. He displayed the ability to hit shots off movement at a high level, something that he rarely got the chance to do in an offensive scheme at Texas that could be charitably described as anachronistic but fairly described as hideously archaic. Even within that scheme, Johnson found his way into 19.9 points per game, even if he struggled a bit once he had to foray into the lane because of the team’s lack of spacing and his own still-improving overall strength level.

The Blazers, in my opinion, have a tremendous frontcourt of the future with Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan. However, there are questions in the backcourt surrounding young players Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson, and they could use another real floor-spacer to knock down shots and threaten defenders. I see Johnson’s range as somewhere in the No. 3 to No. 8 area. I’d be surprised if he got outside of that area of the draft. This is just too good a fit to pass up.
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5. Charlotte Hornets​

Ace Bailey | 6-10 wing/forward | 18 years old | Rutgers​

Bailey drops a bit here, but don’t get it twisted: His range still starts at No. 3. I think that it extends a bit further down, though. He remains quite polarizing and has seemed to have borne the brunt of the blame from NBA personnel for Rutgers’ poor season. Yes, he averaged 17.6 points and seven rebounds while shooting 46 percent from the field and 34 percent from 3. But his style of play did not seem wildly conducive to winning basketball. He settles for a lot of long jumpers because he struggles to get all the way to the rim (he has a high handle and high center of gravity that gets knocked off its line a bit too easily). Defensively, he wasn’t always particularly engaged in help situations unless he saw an opportunity to go get the basketball.


And yet, it’s worth noting that Rutgers was a catastrophe when he wasn’t on the court. Even in Big Ten play, they lost Bailey’s minutes by only three points per 100 possessions. When he was off the court, they lost those minutes by 23 points per 100, per CBB Analytics. His presence was clearly helpful, and I think that’s what tracks most for me. Bailey is enormous, he’s long, he is a real shooter and he showed some defensive moments that were very positive in switch situations. I can’t really get him outside of the top five, and I think it would be very reasonable to take him at No. 3. It’s just that both Portland and New Orleans in this exercise at No. 3 and No. 4 are loaded with big wings right now.
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6. Philadelphia 76ers​

Kon Knueppel | 6-7 guard | 19 years old | Duke​

The Sixers have a massive lottery night ahead. If they fall outside of the top six, they lose their draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Given the lottery odds, they have about a 64 percent chance of keeping the pick. Even if they don’t end up moving into the top three or so while keeping the pick, I would expect them to look into scenarios that involve moving the selection. Their backcourt is fairly loaded with Tyrese Maxey, Quentin Grimes and last year’s pick, Jared McCain. They certainly could use a bigger wing, but unless Bailey falls, that might be a stretch at this slot. There could be a consideration to get a big to backup Joel Embiid, but my read is that Daryl Morey would see that as a bad way to maximize the current core of players that he worked hard to assemble last fall.

So we’ll go with Knueppel, a bigger shooter who is competitive and tough. He has a case as the best shooter in the class along with Johnson, and his overall game was more impactful this season. They’re right next to each other on my personal board. His presence would help the Sixers with different lineup constructions, although some executives worry about what exactly Knueppel’s upside is because of some perceived athletic limitations.
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7. Brooklyn Nets​

Kasparas Jakučionis | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | Illinois​

The Nets would probably not be particularly pleased to land at No. 7. They have a roster loaded with holes, but the good news is that they seem to have found an excellent coach long-term to build around in Jordi Fernandez. Jakučionis here would make sense, as the team doesn’t really have a primary ballhandler for the long haul on its books. Jakučionis is big and can play both on and off the ball, coming off a terrific freshman season in which he averaged 15 points, six rebounds and five assists. His vision is sublime, and he fits the current ecosystem of the NBA well with his dribble, pass and shoot traits. Still, he is a bit polarizing for folks around the league as he doesn’t have a ton of athletic explosiveness, and his defensive game was not always on point this year. His range is seen as somewhere in this ballpark down to around the end of the lottery.
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9. San Antonio Spurs​

Carter Bryant | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Arizona​

The Spurs have a few needs, including shooting and wing defense. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have never really developed defensively, and Harrison Barnes turns 33 next month. Stephon Castle is one player they should trust, but they could use a real 3-and-D wing to put next to Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama. Bryant profiles perfectly there as a long-term replacement for Barnes. The 6-8 wing didn’t start many games this year at Arizona, but he was a monster defensive player when he was on the court, showcasing serious playmaking chops as well as great on-ball play. He also knocks down a solid percentage of his 3s. Bryant is the guy in this class who seems to have a ton of juice when you talk to front offices, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him land in the top 10 when it’s all said and done. I think I’d park his range in the No. 7 to No. 16 area.
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11. Dallas Mavericks​

Jeremiah Fears | 6-4 guard | 18 years old | Oklahoma​

This would be an interesting get for a Mavericks team that will desperately need shot creation if it is going to keep contending with this core. The Kyrie Irving injury has made the Mavs’ life much harder, on top of his potentially being a free agent this summer. If they can’t retain him, there’s a real case that they should then move Anthony Davis and enter an extended rebuild, but there are no signs that we’re headed toward such a situation. Fears is a playmaking guard who can get paint touches with his quickness and handle. However, he struggles to shoot the ball right now and isn’t a great finisher, and his defense needs a lot of work. He’s more of a project than a ready-made player. However, the ability to separate is there if he can improve the skill set.
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21. Utah Jazz (via MIN)​

Liam McNeeley | 6-7 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut​

McNeeley had an impactful freshman season for the Huskies, but his role wasn’t all that actualized for what he’s capable of doing. McNeeley averaged 14.5 points but shot just 38 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3 this year despite a reputation that would make you believe he is a serious shooter. He often ended up playing on the ball when his best role — as seen by when he played with Flagg, Queen and a star-studded team at Montverde (Fla.) Academy in high school — is off the ball. McNeeley drilled 43 percent of his unguarded catch-and-shoot 3s for UConn. However, only about 40 percent of his attempts off the catch were open looks. He also only hit 13 percent of his pull-up 3s because he struggles to separate with his handle. NBA teams love McNeeley’s competitiveness and his character. There’s a real belief that once a team gets him into the right role, you’ll see the jumper get back to the elite level it was in high school.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
I think ESPN acquired DX to basically take it out of the market. It was starting to upstage ESPN’s draft coverage with Chad Ford and that analytics guy based in Portland (whose name escapes me).
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Schmitz was gonna be an ESPN darling though. He was great on TV. He was the president of summer league too... people lit up when he was around and team personnel were like crawling over themselves to say hi. When he left I think DX became a complete afterthought.
 
What type of prospect are you hoping the Jazz select with 21?

- International Man of Mystery
- Lotto mocked prospect that falls
- Older prospect that might be overlooked
- Other

Name names if you want
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Yeah, y'all are remembering wrong. Givony has always put out workout videos that are made to show the prospect in the best light. That's not changed.

Givony also didn't write any in depth articles outside of the European scouting he did.

I think people just have a warped perception of Givony's role and don't really know what's going on currently because most of the content is behind a paywall so the only stuff you see now is the workout video portion.
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I can tell you right off the cuff he absolutely at least had takes based on analysis. The ones I remember most are negative takes.

-Kanter has real problems and question marks. He is overhyped
-Draymond Green will not be able to guard anyone in the NBA (GOAT WHOOPSIE)
-and to push back a little on @KqWIN and @seattlejazzfan whose points I largely agree with, he went on at length somewhere about how Stephon Castle could not shoot and how he showed up to a shootaround to make a hype video for him but that he bricked so many shots that they couldn’t make a video which is a HUGE red flag. He basically said all in that statement that 1) he absolutely is involved in the hype mill that trades hype for access 2) when there isn’t enough there to hype then you should be really concerned.
 
KqWIN said:
Here are the interesting/relevant bits from Vecenie:
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It feels like Tre is trending up and Ace is trending down, even without looking at this. If Ace is there at 5 and that’s where we end up, hallelujah. I think the least excited I’d be is if VJ is there at 5. I kinda just don’t see it.

Liam McNeely doesn’t do anything at an NBA level. He’s on my short list of do not draft. For a top recruit playing on the perennial conference champs in a pretty weak conference, his BPM is bad. His TS% is bad despite being the height of a college big and a rep as a lights out shooter. He’s a hustle player and was barely positive in DBPM (0.8!), dwarfed by the likes of Danny Wolf (5.2!!!) who is supposed to be terrible defensively and played against way better competition. His only saving grace at this juncture is that he’s a freshman, if he played one more year near this level he would be projected in the mid-2nd at best.
 
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NUMBERICA said:
What’s most important about the Vesely thing is that Givony was 1000% right.
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The Vesely hype was back when international scouting was still kind of bad so bad scouts saw a 6'10" Russian kid who dunks a lot and went "Oh, this guy is AK47" without seemingly watching him much at all.

And Givony, who was a guy who spent most of his time watching European basketball, was absolutely losing his mind at this because Vesely had no idea how to play basketball.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
What type of prospect are you hoping the Jazz select with 21?

- International Man of Mystery
- Lotto mocked prospect that falls
- Older prospect that might be overlooked
- Other

Name names if you want
Click to expand...

I hope the Jazz pick the best non-center defensive difference maker available.

Potentially available at the slot could be Philon or Fleming.

Names I don't like as much could include Yaxel, Thiero, Byrd.
 
HadAnEffectHere said:
Tre Johnson's an incredibly elite shooter, but he's got like... absolutely nothing off the dribble.

His moves look fine when you first start watching him, but he gets literally no separation ever. Just doesn't have the tools to beat anyone.

Definitely going to have be mostly an off-ball shooter in the NBA who can like dribble a little off screens.

I have him like #3, because... Well, there's no one else to put at #3... But he's a weak #3 prospect.
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Being able to shoot off the dribble is not nothing, though I agree with the general idea of his post that his ability to attack the basket and actually beat his man is not great.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
What type of prospect are you hoping the Jazz select with 21?

- International Man of Mystery
- Lotto mocked prospect that falls
- Older prospect that might be overlooked
- Other

Name names if you want
Click to expand...

I thought Sergio de Larrea would have been a very cool pick for the Jazz, but alas... The normal thing for the Jazz to do would be to take Rasheer Fleming at #21, assuming he's there. Otherwise, I could see the Jazz take Traore or Richardson if they're still available.

I could see the Jazz moving off of this pick one way or another. They could make a move for Carter Bryant or maybe Kasparas if he starts slipping. Or they could trade back a bit and take someone like Drake Powell, Noah Penda or maybe Thiero. The question with Drake Powell is whether he can be close to a shut-down defender, while providing enough shooting and ball movement to keep the offense moving.

I like Philon, but I'm not entirely convinced he'd be better than Collier overall. I think Philon really needs to play at the 1.
 
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