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Following Potential 2026 Draftees

You're not deciding to tank now or later because of how you think you stack up against one specific team. You tank now because on May 12th you're inevitably going to wish you had more L's. If we're in the 8 spot we're going to wish we were 6. And if we're 6 we're going to wish we were 4. Its not a binary result and if you should stop looking at it that way. No such thing as fine or not fine.

As far as the development/winning culture stuff....you can't prove it one way or another. But you can prove that you actually believe what you're saying by staying consistent. I will stop complaining when the changes I hope for happen. I didn't give a ****, for example, when Svi didn't play last year. Why would I now?

But if you're on the other side of this, I'm going to need to see your discontent and acknowledgement that we're ruining player development if things change.
 
KqWIN said:
You're not deciding to tank now or later because of how you think you stack up against one specific team. You tank now because on May 12th you're inevitably going to wish you had more L's. If we're in the 8 spot we're going to wish we were 6. And if we're 6 we're going to wish we were 4. Its not a binary result and if you should stop looking at it that way. No such thing as fine or not fine.

As far as the development/winning culture stuff....you can't prove it one way or another. But you can prove that you actually believe what you're saying by staying consistent. I will stop complaining when the changes I hope for happen. I didn't give a ****, for example, when Svi didn't play last year. Why would I now?

But if you're on the other side of this, I'm going to need to see your discontent and acknowledgement that we're ruining player development if things change.
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Imagine winning one extra game for the culture last year and then ending up with Tre Johnson instead of Ace.
 
Just to know what I would hope... and you can bookmark this if you think I'm whining later... I would hope we finish 4th or 5th in lotto standings to ensure we have no shot at losing the pick. If the young guys were just too damn good... and you cut out all the Love/Svi/Anderson/Niang minutes possible and you experimented with Kyle and Taylor at the 5 and endured 20-25 minutes a night from Cody and you ended up 6th then fine... the future being brighter had some collateral damage.

Bottom 3 ship has sailed unless Lauri goes down for the year (which would suck) and I don't ever think it was fully reasonable. Obviously it would be ideal to maximize the odds.
 
Here’s a little info to inform this debate:
So far in the 2025-26 season, the Jazz have a more efficient offense, while Dallas has a significantly better defense. Dallas also boasts a better Net Rating than the Jazz. As of today, here is a comparison of their advanced statistics:
Statistic Dallas MavericksUtah Jazz
Offensive Rating111.4113.9
Defensive Rating111.1121.3
Net Rating+0.3-7.4
Pace102.5 possessions/game102.8 possessions/game
Effective Field Goal %50.8%52.7%
To Summarize (assuming the above is correct)
Offense: The Jazz hold the edge in offensive efficiency (Offensive Rating) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), indicating they score more points per 100 possessions and shoot the ball better overall. The Jazz also lead the league in Assist Percentage.
Defense: Dallas has a much stronger defense, with a Defensive Rating among the league's best. In contrast, the Jazz rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, allowing a high number of points per game (125.4). With the addition of Davis (and assuming he plays a reasonable number of games from here on), we might expect both their defensive and offensive efficiency to improve.
Net Rating and Overall Efficiency: The Mavericks have a slightly positive Net Rating (outscoring opponents per 100 possessions), whereas the Jazz have a significant negative Net Rating. This indicates the Mavericks are the more balanced and generally better team overall, despite their current similar win-loss records.
Dallas has 8 proven NBA rotation players: Anthony Davis (soon to return from injury), Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Derek Lively, Dwight Powell, and Caleb Martin (not saying they’re great players, e.g., Powell, but they are established rotation players.) If we count Cooper Flagg, the total is 9.
Utah has 4 proven NBA rotation players: Lauri, Nurkic, Anderson, and Love. Anderson and Love are substantially past their primes and are not expected to play much of a role this season. If we add Keyonte, the total is 5. If we stretch and add Ace, the total is 6.
Not only does Dallas have a significantly better net rating, but they also have more established rotation players than the Jazz. With Davis coming off the IR, they are poised to get significantly better soon (one might assume).
From where I sit, the Mavericks are a better team and are more likely to finish with a better record than the Jazz, unless they decide to go full tank, which cannot be ruled out.
I could be wrong, but I’m far more worried about Indiana, New Orleans, Sacramento, and Charlotte (I assume that Brooklyn and Washington will be worse than the Jazz) than I am about Dallas.
I also can’t help wondering what this tanking dynamic is doing to the minds of Utah’s young players. On one hand, they’re fighting for roster spots and under real pressure to improve; playing winning basketball is the surest way to stand out. On the other hand, they know the Jazz need to lose to keep that 2026 pick. So they’re asked to contribute to the team’s long-term goal of losing while simultaneously expected to play well enough to win.
I’m no sports psychologist, but that kind of built-in contradiction has to create a level of cognitive dissonance that isn’t exactly conducive to a young player’s development.
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
Here’s a little info to inform this debate:
So far in the 2025-26 season, the Jazz have a more efficient offense, while Dallas has a significantly better defense. Dallas also boasts a better Net Rating than the Jazz. As of today, here is a comparison of their advanced statistics:
Statistic Dallas MavericksUtah Jazz
Offensive Rating111.4113.9
Defensive Rating111.1121.3
Net Rating+0.3-7.4
Pace102.5 possessions/game102.8 possessions/game
Effective Field Goal %50.8%52.7%
To Summarize (assuming the above is correct)
Offense: The Jazz hold the edge in offensive efficiency (Offensive Rating) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), indicating they score more points per 100 possessions and shoot the ball better overall. The Jazz also lead the league in Assist Percentage.
Defense: Dallas has a much stronger defense, with a Defensive Rating among the league's best. In contrast, the Jazz rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, allowing a high number of points per game (125.4). With the addition of Davis (and assuming he plays a reasonable number of games from here on), we might expect both their defensive and offensive efficiency to improve.
Net Rating and Overall Efficiency: The Mavericks have a slightly positive Net Rating (outscoring opponents per 100 possessions), whereas the Jazz have a significant negative Net Rating. This indicates the Mavericks are the more balanced and generally better team overall, despite their current similar win-loss records.
Dallas has 8 proven NBA rotation players: Anthony Davis (soon to return from injury), Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Derek Lively, Dwight Powell, and Caleb Martin (not saying they’re great players, e.g., Powell, but they are established rotation players.) If we count Cooper Flagg, the total is 9.
Utah has 4 proven NBA rotation players: Lauri, Nurkic, Anderson, and Love. Anderson and Love are substantially past their primes and are not expected to play much of a role this season. If we add Keyonte, the total is 5. If we stretch and add Ace, the total is 6.
Not only does Dallas have a significantly better net rating, but they also have more established rotation players than the Jazz. With Davis coming off the IR, they are poised to get significantly better soon (one might assume).
From where I sit, the Mavericks are a better team and are more likely to finish with a better record than the Jazz, unless they decide to go full tank, which cannot be ruled out.
I could be wrong, but I’m far more worried about Indiana, New Orleans, Sacramento, and Charlotte (I assume that Brooklyn and Washington will be worse than the Jazz) than I am about Dallas.
I also can’t help wondering what this tanking dynamic is doing to the minds of Utah’s young players. On one hand, they’re fighting for roster spots and under real pressure to improve; playing winning basketball is the surest way to stand out. On the other hand, they know the Jazz need to lose to keep that 2026 pick. So they’re asked to contribute to the team’s long-term goal of losing while simultaneously expected to play well enough to win.
I’m no sports psychologist, but that kind of built-in contradiction has to create a level of cognitive dissonance that isn’t exactly conducive to a young player’s development.
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Appreciate the work you put in here... but if we are going to call Martin and Powell proven players then we can go ahead and loop in Svi and Niang. If the roster is ever close to 100% in Dallas then I agree they have a better overall roster... but their hole at PG is still a huge issue. I doubt AD plays more than 10 more games as a Maverick this season one way or another. Lively can't stay on the floor. I think PJ is also dinged up but not sure rn.

For us to benefit (and according to your post properly scar our young players for life) they will need to actually play. More Taylor/Cody/Brice minutes is 100% what I am advocating for and then the losing will come... or they will be too good to lose but if you are relying on your future contributors for that it isn't a bad thing necessarily.

We have played 5 "tank" or horrible teams... Dallas has played 9. Yet they still amassed a worse record. They are absolutely in the conversation with all the teams you named... and us.
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
I also can’t help wondering what this tanking dynamic is doing to the minds of Utah’s young players. On one hand, they’re fighting for roster spots and under real pressure to improve; playing winning basketball is the surest way to stand out. On the other hand, they know the Jazz [/FONT][/COLOR]need to lose to keep that 2026 pick. So they’re asked to contribute to the team’s long-term goal of losing while simultaneously expected to play well enough to win.
I’m no sports psychologist, but that kind of built-in contradiction has to create a level of cognitive dissonance that isn’t exactly conducive to a young player’s development.
Click to expand...

Correct me if you're wrong, but you're implying that there's this dilemma between playing to win and playing to tank? This exists at the FO and to some extent the coaching level. It does not exist at the player level.
 
This DAL tangent is mostly irrelevant IMO. There's going to be teams with more L's than us and we'll want to be in their position instead of ours come lotto night. Does not matter if DAL is in that group or not.
 
KqWIN said:
Correct me if you're wrong, but you're implying that there's this dilemma between playing to win and playing to tank? This exists at the FO and to some extent the coaching level. It does not exist at the player level.
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The young players would have to play to get scarred by this great dilemma. Taylor and Cody should not have one more DNP-CD or G League assignment the rest of the year. One or preferably both should play every night at the expense of Kyle, Kevin, Nurk, and Svi minutes.
 
KqWIN said:
This DAL tangent is mostly irrelevant IMO. There's going to be teams with more L's than us and we'll want to be in their position instead of ours come lotto night. Does not matter if DAL is in that group or not.
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To argue they don't belong in that group is silly to me. They are firmly in the scrum and as motivated as any team to suck.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The young players would have to play to get scarred by this great dilemma. Taylor and Cody should not have one more DNP-CD or G League assignment the rest of the year. One or preferably both should play every night at the expense of Kyle, Kevin, Nurk, and Svi minutes.
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This will happen eventually. The only complaint that will be had is that it didn't happen sooner. That's kind of the story of this FO tbh. They've made a million moves that follow the same pattern. Think about every time we got rid of/traded a vet. We were in a better position than the day before, but we really should have have done it way earlier.
 
KqWIN said:
If you're right, we're going to wish we had more L's. If you're wrong, we're going to wish we had more L's. That's how I see it lol.
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And I am not even one of these "we have to trade Lauri" guys that are out there. I am simply saying do everything we can to be a worse without hurting the more permanent fixtures. It might actually help Lauri long term to not play him this many minutes. Much of what we are doing this year (say 85%) has been about maximizing winning... which runs counter to the main goal of the season... or what should be the main goal.
 
KqWIN said:
This will happen eventually. The only complaint that will be had is that it didn't happen sooner. That's kind of the story of this FO tbh. They've made a million moves that follow the same pattern. Think about every time we got rid of/traded a vet. We were in a better position than the day before, but we really should have have done it way earlier.
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We had to lose 19 out of 20 last year at one point to get where we did. I just don't think we have that in us this year... so I am a little worried we think we can always go back to that.

Just a little more intention this year please.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
Appreciate the work you put in here... but if we are going to call Martin and Powell proven players then we can go ahead and loop in Svi and Niang. If the roster is ever close to 100% in Dallas then I agree they have a better overall roster... but their hole at PG is still a huge issue. I doubt AD plays more than 10 more games as a Maverick this season one way or another. Lively can't stay on the floor. I think PJ is also dinged up but not sure rn.

For us to benefit (and according to your post properly scar our young players for life) they will need to actually play. More Taylor/Cody/Brice minutes is 100% what I am advocating for and then the losing will come... or they will be too good to lose but if you are relying on your future contributors for that it isn't a bad thing necessarily.

We have played 5 "tank" or horrible teams... Dallas has played 9. Yet they still amassed a worse record. They are absolutely in the conversation with all the teams you named... and us.
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I don't deny that Dallas is in the conversation. I'm merely saying, and giving my reasons for so saying, why I am less worried about them.

I didn't count Niang because I don't know when he'll return, and I didn't count Svi because my understanding was that he's a career end-of-bencher (garbage time specialist) rather than a bona fide, established rotation player. However, looking at his career average minutes played, I may have been hasty in making that assumption. (I also forgot to count D-Lo for Dallas, so add one more established rotation player, regardless of how flawed.) We'll see how many more games Davis plays for Dallas this year.

However, this doesn't change my conclusion that Dallas, overall, has a superior roster to the Jazz and is likely to end with a better record, barring some significant development. This comes with the caveat (as always) that I could well be wrong.

I'll see Dalla's PG issues and raise it the Jazz's center issue. Nurkic is good at many things, but defense isn't one of them. With him in the middle, our hopes for fielding a consistently credible defense are vanishingly small, and defense is much more our problem than our offense (although one might think otherwise after the Houston game yesterday).

I absolutely agree with you that I want to see more of Taylor/Cody/Brice. I'm frustrated that Hardy refuses to give them regular minutes, and, in Brice's case, more of them.

I notice the strawman you snuck in there. I'm not claiming that our players are risking being scarred for life; I've only noted what I see as an eminently reasonable proposition that the conflicting messages and countervailing pressures they're facing don't necessarily create the ideal environment for player development. I hardly see this as a radical concern.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
We had to lose 19 out of 20 last year at one point to get where we did. I just don't think we have that in us this year... so I am a little worried we think we can always go back to that.

Just a little more intention this year please.
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At some point I’m sure the deadly contusion disease will hit Lauri and a few others at some point
 
Schrödinger's Gerbil said:
I don't deny that Dallas is in the conversation. I'm merely saying, and giving my reasons for so saying, why I am less worried about them.

I didn't count Niang because I don't know when he'll return, and I didn't count Svi because my understanding was that he's a career end-of-bencher (garbage time specialist) rather than a bona fide, established rotation player. However, looking at his career average minutes played, I may have been hasty in making that assumption. (I also forgot to count D-Lo for Dallas, so add one more established rotation player, regardless of how flawed.) We'll see how many more games Davis plays for Dallas this year.

However, this doesn't change my conclusion that Dallas, overall, has a superior roster to the Jazz and is likely to end with a better record, barring some significant development. This comes with the caveat (as always) that I could well be wrong.

I'll see Dalla's PG issues and raise it the Jazz's center issue. Nurkic is good at many things, but defense isn't one of them. With him in the middle, our hopes for fielding a consistently credible defense are vanishingly small, and defense is much more our problem than our offense (although one might think otherwise after the Houston game yesterday).

I absolutely agree with you that I want to see more of Taylor/Cody/Brice. I'm frustrated that Hardy refuses to give them regular minutes, and, in Brice's case, more of them.

I notice the strawman you snuck in there. I'm not claiming that our players are risking being scarred for life; I've only noted what I see as an eminently reasonable proposition that the conflicting messages and countervailing pressures they're facing don't necessarily create the ideal environment for player development. I hardly see this as a radical concern.
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That's fine.

It wasn't a strawman though. It was a wild exaggeration lol. Mentioned it only to point out that the guys would actually have to play to face that pressure/issue. If they reason you think we won't be very good is our youth... then they youth must get time over the olds (the sooner the better). Sitting on the bench is more catastrophic to their development than being in a situation where there are competing interests on their individual play. I doubt anyone would need or want them to be less good if they were driving the winning.
 
Thee Jazz Fan said:
At some point I’m sure the deadly contusion disease will hit Lauri and a few others at some point
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I guess here is what I am warning.... Danny was cool with deadly contusion... Baby Ainge has stated he is not. I have heard it from very reliable sources at the Best Buy that Baby Ainge is basically like "**** the pick let's just get going" behind the scenes as well.

I do not share others confidence that we will get ugly. I definitely don't think we will do it early enough... and the tank race got crowded really early.
 
KqWIN said:
Correct me if you're wrong, but you're implying that there's this dilemma between playing to win and playing to tank? This exists at the FO and to some extent the coaching level. It does not exist at the player level.
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I can see your point of view. One could argue that tanking doesn’t create genuine dissonance because players focus on their own incentives rather than the team’s long-term strategy. Their priority is to perform well, earn minutes, and secure future contracts, goals that naturally align with playing competitive basketball. From this perspective, the team's goal to lose is largely irrelevant to the players' day-to-day mindset, and players can compartmentalize, treating tanking as management’s problem while concentrating on their personal development and performance.

At the same time, it’s reasonable to argue that tanking does create cognitive dissonance for young players. They’re told their future depends on competing, winning their minutes, and proving they can help a team succeed, while simultaneously seeing the organization quietly shaping outcomes in the opposite direction. This mixed-incentive structure forces them to navigate two incompatible expectations at once: play to win, but also operate within a system that benefits from losing. For a developing player, that’s a fundamentally disorienting environment, and pretending otherwise overlooks how incentives shape behavior and confidence.

Both arguments have merit, and reasonable people can disagree on whether players can fully compartmentalize as you suggest. Even accounting for the human capacity to separate competing priorities, I remain skeptical that this constant, inherent conflict leaves young players unaffected. Navigating the tension between playing to win and operating within a system that benefits from losing can subtly influence their mindset, undermining focus, increasing stress, creating uncertainty in decision-making, and shaping how they assess risk, effort, and their own growth.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
The young players would have to play to get scarred by this great dilemma. Taylor and Cody should not have one more DNP-CD or G League assignment the rest of the year. One or preferably both should play every night at the expense of Kyle, Kevin, Nurk, and Svi minutes.
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Love that this got the eyeroll lol.

Friday night we played a key tank game... Svi/Love combined for 40 minutes... Taylor and Cody played zero. Not sure it flips that game but Svi and Love go for 18 on 7/12 shooting.

We have two top 10 picks not in the rotation. Let's get one or both in the rotation... there are minutes to be had.
 
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