Pacers interest in Kessler- what do we want?

jom2003 said:

Not if they win the #1 pick. #1 pick usually gets to help his teams win from year one in most cases. Sometimes even the top 3 contribute positively to winning in a strong draft class. And whoever they draft, a rookie contract holds much more value to a team than Walker who's about to add 20+mil to their salary.

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They really don't. Plus the Pacers have a massive gaping hole at the 5 and none of the top picks in this draft really fill that hole

The value question for the Pacers is what could they get if the pick landed #1 vs what could they get if it lands #6. Like Kqwin said if they trade the pick they can win some more game post ASB (though I really don't think it would be that much more, they would still have incentive to rest Siakim down the stretch so they can ensure his health for next season). Also the whole contract situation with Walker and what they can afford and what salaries would have to be moved around to make things work financially for the next 2-4 years (would require more research on my part that I can't do currently)

I somehow doubt the Pacers want to do a rebuild, so it makes sense they are looking to trade. They took the Thunder to 7 games with Turner and Walker is certainly an upgrade and they would be able to get more than just Walker in a trade.

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Jazz aren't doing this deal now. Wait til the deadline when only 26 games remain. We will see where the Pacers are then and what their schedule looks like.

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In 26 games it will be even more clear that this IND pick isn't premium. Like I said, the more I think about it the less likely it sounds.

If there is a Pacers trade, I don't think it will be based around their 2026 draft pick. IMO, it's more likely to be centered on Mathurin for Kessler. Both player-team relationships are a little iffy, I don't think either team is exceptionally high on their own player and obviously neither extension got done.

NUMBERICA said:

This is a team that got a franchise player for a guy they’d been shopping for several years. I guarantee they think they could get a player from a team that refused to even negotiate an extension without trading a potential #1 pick.

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So because they got Haliburton from the Kings (a deal in which they also gave up a future all-star, he was hardly free), that means they will never ever make a risky trade again?

Saint Cy of JFC said:

You think Kessler straight up is worth a 50% chance at a top 4 pick?

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If they trade it away, there's IMHO no way there's a 50% chance of a top 4.

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Kessler
Hendricks
Lakers 2027 pick
Suns 2031 pick


That would be a bit of a no brainer for the Pacers imo. It would be a big risk for Utah if the pick isn't top 3. Not sure I would do that deal as Utah due to the huge risk.

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What? Not sure I understood exactly what the Pacers gave up here, but I wouldn't trade Suns 31 + LAL 31 for their '26 pick alone even. They're in an incredibly weak conference and would be playing to win.

I think this would have to happen after the season. We could have certainty on the pick and they would know how kessler’s recovery is going.

hgb said:

What? Not sure I understood exactly what the Pacers gave up here, but I wouldn't trade Suns 31 + LAL 31 for their '26 pick alone even. They're in an incredibly weak conference and would be playing to win.

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Like I said, I wouldn't either. Also the East isn't that weak and the Pacers arent good enough to just win games because they want to. They are a bad team regardless of if they want to be or not

I doubt the 2026 pick is on the table. The Pacers are more thin than last year with no Tyrese, Toppin, Turner. While they temporarily have it together I can see them hitting another injury bug and the pick being in the 6-8 odds... I just doubt they give that up for an injured Walker with no salary guarantees in a year they can just punt. If they landed top 4 its catastrophic. Maybe they do it with top 4 protections and its unprotected next year. Adding in additional picks is kinda weird too with so much uncertainty on where the pick is landing.

So Walker for Toppin and we get a top 4 protected pick that becomes unprotected in 2027 would be the deal. We bank on the pick being in the 5-10 range or it being a meh pick.

hgb said:

If they trade it away, there's IMHO no way there's a 50% chance of a top 4.

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Sure there is. They aren't good. They only have one win all season vs a team that isn't a bottom feeder. Just glancing at their schedule they seem to have pretty difficult post ASB schedule. I only count 8 games vs teams that would have incentive to tank. Potentially 10 depending on what the Blazers decide to do

Saint Cy of JFC said:

Like I said, I wouldn't either. Also the East isn't that weak and the Pacers arent good enough to just win games because they want to. They are a bad team regardless of if they want to be or not

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I think they are mid when they have most of their guys... bad when missing either Pascal or Nembhard... McConnell/Nesmith also fairly important to them right now.

I just don't think they do it without protections for this year and I doubt we add all these picks banking on them continuing to suck or be mid.

Handlogten's Heros said:

I think they are mid when they have most of their guys... bad when missing either Pascal or Nembhard... McConnell/Nesmith also fairly important to them right now.

I just don't think they do it without protections for this year and I doubt we add all these picks banking on them continuing to suck or be mid.

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Protections would make it an obvious no for the Jazz. It's not a possible deal with protections. Jazz risking getting no pick then the Pacers being incredible the next season? That would be insane.

Obviously a deal probably won't happen, but there is a possibility if both sides really want it to happen.

Handlogten's Heros said:

I doubt the 2026 pick is on the table. The Pacers are more thin than last year with no Tyrese, Toppin, Turner. While they temporarily have it together I can see them hitting another injury bug and the pick being in the 6-8 odds... I just doubt they give that up for an injured Walker with no salary guarantees in a year they can just punt. If they landed top 4 its catastrophic. Maybe they do it with top 4 protections and its unprotected next year. Adding in additional picks is kinda weird too with so much uncertainty on where the pick is landing.

So Walker for Toppin and we get a top 4 protected pick that becomes unprotected in 2027 would be the deal. We bank on the pick being in the 5-10 range or it being a meh pick.

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I think Mathurin+Protected pick is where it gets interesting. The asking price from the Lakers was reported to be Reaves+2 picks, but this was before Reaves blew up. I think IND could create a similar level package with Mathurin and for all the Jazz stubborness I think they might accept something less than the proposed Laker package.

IDK....if you asked me about player on their own, I'd say that they could be moved because I don't think their team is super high on them. They could be traded for each other and figure out the difference with picks, whatever that is. I don't suppose Mathurin is considered a highly valued player on this forum, but if he was a Jazz player I think we'd be reacting to him like we are with Key right now.