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[da ThRONe]

Yup, and my point is if the offense flows better and the shots are more consistent, he would be better prepared mentally to take and make good shots. Not saying he is without blame for the root of the problem, but he isn't fully to blame.

Not only that he's using eFG% when you talk about raw FG%. I don't mind a person trying to correct things, but he's using different parameters for his point. And even still the stats he produces doesn't even support his on debunking efforts to prove that where the shot clocks is has no impact on Burke's eFG%'s when it clearly does.

 

[Siro]

Which part isn't true? Nothing you added dispute anything he put in his post. He talks about shooting in 6 secs and you talk about 8 secs and 3 secs.

Based on your stats if I'm reading it correctly. When Trey shoots between 16-20 secs is when he's most effieicent which if anything supports the theory that he's better shooting when he has more time which usually means more options.

I concede that it was unfair to call Cy's numbers misinformation, because there is indeed a difference between "last 6 seconds" and "8-3 seconds before shot clock expires". But, the difference isn't all that important because Trey's shooting still sucks even when you take that into account. Even if you remove all of shots taken with 3 seconds left, we still have:

(0.427*0.454)+(0.268*0.42)+(0.305*0.491) = 45.6 eFG%

Plugging that into: eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA

We get a FG% (FGM/FGA) of 37.8%.

So even if we disregard all of his final 3 second shots (ridiculous since all players still have to take some), he still shoots a **** percentage.

Edit: And before someone says "oh, but that's 3 seconds, not 6". Taking all 6 seconds into account would make his FG% even worse, since he shoots a relatively high percent between 8-3 seconds!

Edit2: The percentages for the numbers above were derived by removing all the shots taken in the last 3 seconds and renormalizing as such : 0.34/0.82, 0.22/0.82, 0.25/0.82. Last 3 second shots were also taken out of FGM, 3PTM, FGA.

 

[da ThRONe]

I concede that it was unfair to call Cy's numbers misinformation, because there is indeed a difference between "last 6 seconds" and "8-3 seconds before shot clock expires". But, the difference isn't all that important because Trey's shooting still sucks even when you take that into account. Even if you remove all of shots taken with 3 seconds left, we still have:

(0.427*0.454)+(0.268*0.42)+(0.305*0.491) = 45.6 eFG%

Plugging that into: eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PTM)) / FGA

We get a FG% (FGM/FGA) of 37.8%.

So even if we disregard all of his final 3 second shots (ridiculous since all players still have to take some), he still shoots a **** percentage.

Edit: And before someone says "oh, but that's 3 seconds, not 6". Taking all 6 seconds into account would make his FG% even worse, since he shoots a relatively high percent between 8-3 seconds!

Edit2: The percentages for the numbers above were derived by removing all the shots taken in the last 3 seconds and renormalizing as such : 0.34/0.82, 0.22/0.82, 0.25/0.82. Last 3 second shots were also taken out of FGM, 3PTM, FGA.

Again this is a incomplete analysis. This assumes that if you take all his shots in between 8-3 secs It'll hurt his overall shooting percentage. It could be that Burke is shooting an insanely high percentage between 8-6 secs in which is offset by a terrible percentage in the 6-3 second range. Those two seconds may not seem like a lot but is 40% of the 8-3sec window. So if sticking to the original number of 6secs or less just dismissing those 2 seconds could mean all the difference in the world.

 

[Siro]

Again this is a incomplete analysis. This assumes that if you take all his shots in between 8-3 secs It'll hurt his overall shooting percentage. It could be that Burke is shooting an insanely high percentage between 8-6 secs in which is offset by a terrible percentage in the 6-3 second range. Those two seconds may not seem like a lot but is 40% of the 8-3sec window. So if sticking to the original number of 6secs or less just dismissing those 2 seconds could mean all the difference in the world.

This is religious apologetics level of reaching. It would be easier for you to just admit you're wrong, but if Cy can provide where he got his 6 seconds number, I'll be happy to show you that Burke sucks regardless of how you want to manipulate the numbers. Of course there is a chance that Burke is actually shooting a godly percentage in those 2 seconds that we have no concrete numbers for! After all, people DO win the lottery. [snicker]

 

[Spinoza]

Remember how I said the board will turn on Burke once he has a couple of off nights? Then Cy was like "nah, people will give him the benefit of the doubt" and I'm like "yah right, lol".

So Cy was wrong for once? Cause honestly that guy's been on a roll lately with his predictions.

 

[Siro]

So Cy was wrong for once? Cause honestly that guy's been on a roll lately with his predictions.

Is that sarcasm? I think Cy is pretty knowledgeable when it comes to basketball.

 

[Spinoza]

Trey Burke has taken 179 shots in the final 6 seconds of the shot clock, 2nd most in the NBA.

Hayward is 8th with 151.

That is the biggest reason Trey's FG% sucks. You can blame it on him stopping the ball, but it's not all his fault. Our offense just isn't that good and when you have as many wings who won't shoot (Sap and Ingles) it can make things hard on the PG.

So that's a 20% weight for shots taken with under 6 seconds on the shot clock.

What is his average on those shots? If it was the biggest reason for his poor percentage it would have to be something like 15-20%. And any idea on what the league average is on shots taken with under 6 seconds on the shot clock?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is religious apologetics level of reaching. It would be easier for you to just admit you're wrong, but if Cy can provide where he got his 6 seconds number, I'll be happy to show you that Burke sucks regardless of how you want to manipulate the numbers. Of course there is a chance that Burke is actually shooting a godly percentage in those 2 seconds that we have no concrete numbers for! After all, people DO win the lottery. [snicker]

David Locke twitter from a retweet from some advanced stats dude.

David Locke @Lockedonsports · 8h 8 hours ago
Cool note from @johnschuhmann Trey Burke has taken 2nd most amount of shots in final 6 secs of shot clock this year 179. Hayward 8th 151

 

[Siro]

David Locke twitter from a retweet from some advanced stats dude.

Oh. That's not enough info. I wish he provided percent made on those shots.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Oh. That's not enough info. I wish he provided percent made on those shots.

Just go to NBA.com stats page.....

 

[Spinoza]

Is that sarcasm? I think Cy is pretty knowledgeable when it comes to basketball.

No. I had noticed him being right on a lot of stuff lately, e.g., saying Exum was going to have a big game out of nowhere and then Exum scores 14 points on 5-6 shooting.

And yea, Cy's opinion of him is the only reason I have some hope left for Burke. Otherwise, I would declare him a bust and move on.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just have hopes that Burke will one day play like he played in the pre-season for an entire season.