fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
2020 Presidential election
- Thread starter gandalfe
- Start date
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
this:
North Korea unveils massive new ballistic missile in military parade
North Korea unveiled what analysts believe to be one of the world's largest ballistic missiles at a military parade celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Workers' Party broadcast on state-run television on Saturday.
gandalfe
Well-Known Member
It's talking about not the possibility of civil war, but just what Trump can and possibly will do to keep power.
Red
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I think Timothy Snyder also understands that, if it is not a Biden blowout, we should expect Trump to pull out all the stops to retain power.
Not a Normal Election | Commonweal Magazine
By telling Americans in advance that he intends to stay in power regardless of the vote count, Trump implicates his supporters in his actions.
If we take Trump at his word and begin from the premise that he cannot win the election, then his actions make sense. The plan is not to win the popular (or even the electoral) vote, but rather to stay in power in some other way. We don’t even really have to guess about this, since Trump has spelled it out himself: he will declare victory regardless of what happens, expect state governments to act contrary to vote counts, claim fraud from postal ballots, court chaos from white nationalists (and perhaps the Department of Homeland Security), and expect the Supreme Court to install him. In general, the idea behind these scenarios is to create as much chaos as possible, and then fall back upon personal ruthlessness and an artificial state of emergency to stay in power. If Trump creates a constitutional crisis while his supporters commit acts of violence, the Supreme Court might be intimidated.
In this transition from democracy to authoritarianism, otherwise known as a coup d’état, the actual number of people who vote for Trump matters less than it would in an ordinary election. In this scenario, it matters more how angry they are, and how willing some of them are to endorse extraordinary actions by Trump, or to take such actions themselves. Since he is treating election day as the occasion for a coup, Trump has good reason not to soften his message to reach more voters. In doing so he would risk losing some of the emotion he needs when he tries to stay in power by non-democratic means. He only has to stay within about ten points of Joe Biden to avoid the demoralization that arises when even core supporters realize they have been deceived by their leader and overwhelmed by their fellow citizens at the polls.
Red
Well-Known Member
And FiveThirtyEight is giving Trump a 14% chance of winning.....
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
Red
Well-Known Member
Another point of view.
bracingviews.com
The Election Without a Future
Their vision for the future is stuck in the past W.J. Astore Isn’t it remarkable that Joe Biden and Donald Trump have no compelling vision of a future America? Both Biden and Trump are retrog…
bracingviews.com
LogGrad98
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2020-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
Realistically the worst that Trump can do to keep power in an election he loses is in the courts. He can't engage the military to keep power, it isn't legal. And to do something that monumental and illegal would require deep deep support from all of the military leaders, which he just does not have. What else could he do? Hole up in the WH and just refuse to move? He can sue all he wants but the likelihood that the election is held up as invalid in court is slim to none. It didn't happen when Bush's election when there were real concerns about vote counts in Florida, a major swing state. It won't happen now. And if there are concerns what will happen is they will require a recount. Or in the very worst case a revote in some places. But that's about it. It might get drawn out, but the odds that Trump stays in power if he loses the election are basically zero.
Jazz4ever
Well-Known Member
It's not a surprise Democrats would largely vote by mail, being generally more fearful of Covid. Plus Trump has instructed anyone voting R to vote in person given the possibility of tampering. Also Pelosi has spurned the most recent attempt of getting another $1200 stimulus check and a +400 a week in unemployment booster unless it includes her non Covid related wishlist. So while you may not need this money, don't assume the average American or even registered Democrat is ok with her passing on the skinny bill.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
There is nothing factual in this post and we are actually all dumber for having read it.
First of all, what is this $1,200 dollar stimulus check +$400 week unemployment booster you're referring to? Certainly not the bill that Republicans want in the Senate.
Republicans Push Scaled-Back Stimulus Plan as Impasse on Virus Aid Persists (Published 2020)
The economic recovery measure Republicans presented on Tuesday is a fraction of the size of their original offer and was immediately dismissed by Democrats as inadequate.
In fact, some Senate Republicans are on the record for questioning the need for additional stimulus:
'Over our dead bodies': Lindsey Graham vows Congress won't extend additional $600 coronavirus-related unemployment benefits, as US death toll crosses the 60,000 mark
The South Carolina senator said he believed the additional unemployment funds would incentivize people not to work.
www.businessinsider.com
Florida Sen. Rick Scott says unemployed people make too much money, won't 'go back to work'
Florida Sen. Rick Scott wrote an op-ed for Fox News that decried the federal government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, implying that the country’s millions...
It's also ironic that you're blaming Pelosi for cutting off stimulus talks, when your precious Dear Leader was bragging about cutting off talks and told the Senate to focus on the Supreme Court just a few days ago. Why don't you blame Dear Leader? Hilarious!
Cmon @Jazz4ever, if you're gonna try to debate this topic, at least come with some facts.
Lastly, it's pretty obvious who's been willing to negotiate in good faith (taken from the NY Times article above):
And it's pretty funny to see Donald realize what a political mistake he made a few days ago and now backtrack.
Trump slams door on relief package but asks for new $1,200 stimulus checks
Pelosi dismisses Trump’s proposal: "All the president wants is his name on a check."
www.nbcnews.com
- Senate Republicans have questioned the need for additional stimulus since May. They've sat on passing the House's bill since May. They've ignored Pelosi's negotiations to trim her originally passed stimulus. All to the detriment of the country.
- Senate Republicans recognize that Trump is going to lose and have focused on judicial nominees. It actually appears like McConnell is repeating his 2008 playbook by making the economy worse in an attempt to kill Biden's presidency early.
- Trump, as usual, doesn't know what the **** is going on and changes positions on nearly an hourly basis.
LOL
I get it, being a poorly informed and dishonest partisan is your thing. But come on, the facts are the facts. Read the links I posted. It's pretty obvious which side has been dragging their feet. Which side doesn't want to "give in" to supporting American workers. It's not surprising, Republicans are always for socialism if it means giving handouts to corporations and campaign donors. It's only when money goes to workers that they drag their feet to giving away money.
And btw, please don't double down. Just admit that you were wrong on the facts. It's so old for Trumpers to double down on their stupidity.
Last edited:
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
This is troubling. Remember this when people claim that both parties are the same. No, actually, they’re not. One party has completely given up on this game of democracy.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
National polls don’t matter. Biden isn’t polling any better Hillary at this stage in several swing states. If the election were held today, the EC totals would be uncomfortably close.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Oh. Alrighty then. So the pro life movement is for abortion when it benefits their politicians? Okay, that makes sense...
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
I don’t think you have your facts correct. Hillary maintained a 3-5 pt national adv while Biden’s maintained a 8+ pt lead nationally.
Swing states have seen Biden up beyond The MOE for a few weeks now. In 2016, trump was within a percentage point of Clinton In Florida. In 2020? He’s down 5 percentage points. In 2016 trump was within 3 Points of clinton in Pennsylvania. In 2020? He’s down 5-7 points. In 2016 he was within 4 points to Clinton in Michigan. In 2020? He’s down 8 and has stopped advertising. In 2016 he was within a point in North Carolina. Today? He’s down by 5. Hell, in Arizona he was even up (and won) in 2016 by about 2 percentage points. In 2020? He’s losing by 4 (beyond the MOE), a 6 point swing.
Whereas, Hillary’s biggest lead was right now 4 years ago because of the Access Hollywood tape. Which was quickly forgotten about because Russia/Wikileaks released podesta’s emails and later Comey reopened the investigation. Do we expect a similar investigation into Biden? Would it really matter seeing how many people have already voted?
- I think we also need to consider early voting is sky high.
- Biden is much more well liked than Clinton.
- Early voting is already happening and it’s overwhelmingly democratic. October surprises will have decreased effect due to early voting
- trump is the incompetent incumbent.
- covid.
- third party candidates were getting 3-6 percent of the votes. This year they’re taking in 1-2 percent.
- And most of all, Trump will constantly do something stupid every single day.
He’s the constant reminder of what a **** up 2016 was.
fishonjazz
Well-Known Member
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
2019 Award Winner
2020-21 Award Winner
2022 Award Winner
2023 Award Winner
2024 Award Winner
I don't feel comfortable about any predictive polls and I won't feel comfortable about this election until trump has left the white house
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
Another factor last time was that there were MANY more undecided voters and voters who disliked both candidates. Those voters broke in favor of Trump in an unprecedented way.
This time there aren't many truly undecided voters, and what has been seen so far is that things have broken in Biden's favor more than in Trump's.
Still, I'm not counting chickens until the polls close. I was shocked last time and I'm aware that it can happen again.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Absolutely. Most teams win with that kind of lead. And since Trump is carmelo with Westbrook’s temperament, I’m fine going up against that disaster. He’s not bringing his campaign back from this 1-3 hole.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
You’re right. There are far fewer undecided. Those undecided are breaking Biden’s way. Personally, I’m not worried about this guy making a comeback. This is happening right now: