2022 NBA Draft Thread: We Going to Have a Pick! (lmao jk)

[Handlogten's Heros]

I find it impossible to find out who the "hustle" guys are. 1) Because I will never subject myself to watching that much NCAA basketball. 2) It seems random from an outsiders perspective. Ayo and Reaves were both lead guard types for example. Shot creators who were probably not good enough to create shots at the NBA. That assertion was right, but they turned into extreme hustle guys in the NBA. A lot of the hustle first guys coming into the draft don't have the baseline skill to be in the NBA, but these guys do. I guess this kind of evaluation has to be done with interviews/talking to coaches etc....but I think that's a good way to find a draft steal.

Steal rate, block rate, and rebound rate have long been touted by the analytics crowd as things that translate. If I see a guard with a lot of steals that also rebounds well I feel pretty solid that he is an activity guy. Reaves actually played both on and off ball roles in his different stops. I think you can look at activity and see who "hustles". I think its a skill/talent to play hard and understand where the ball is going and get to it and its something that I think translates actually quite well from NCAA o NBA.

Any indicator has failures and successes. Paul Millsap was a huge success as a hustle guy and he was 13 boards 2 steals and 2 blocks per game his last college year... then the other stuff he added really benefited him. I think people knew Herb would be a hustle guy and solid defensively (maybe not as good as he is) but it was questions on his shot and offensive role. that pushed him to the second round.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So you're saying you see Dalen Terry as nothing like Jeremy Lamb in the NBA....Jeremy Lamb's role in the NBA, especially before he started getting injured, was as a shot creator and someone who can score at all 3 levels. His greatest weakness was his hustle and attentiveness on defense....which figures to be Terry's primary strength as a prospect.

The only similarities are Lamb is a good rebounder and gets steals. If I was guessing I'd bet Terry is more in the mold of Delon Wright.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

So you're saying you see Dalen Terry as nothing like Jeremy Lamb in the NBA....Jeremy Lamb's role in the NBA, especially before he started getting injured, was as a shot creator and someone who can score at all 3 levels. His greatest weakness was his hustle and attentiveness on defense....which figures to be Terry's primary strength as a prospect.

Lamb was hyped coming out of college, mostly due to his athleticism and shooting touch, but he's always been just a complementary scorer in the NBA, averaging ~10 - 12 ppg, with average efficiency. The Lamb archetype I'm using is a long, athletic, 3D guard. I've never viewed Lamb as a great 3-level scorer, especially when you consider that he's not that advanced off the dribble. And yeah, Lamb gets criticized for being lackadaisical.

I'll go ahead and say that whatever offensive potential Lamb had, Terry has as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Terry is intriguing, it feels as though he could transition well because he would play the exact same role in college as in the pros, but I wonder about his baseline skill/ability. Wright was an All American type player in college. It didn't show up in the NBA as he's more of a role player, but he does have a ton of game and I think that allows him to remain a solid contributor throughout his career. Even if hustling/defense is exactly what a team needs, there needs to be some kind of ability (or the team has to mask it very well) for them to see the court.

Terry is a bit younger than Delon was though... one of the knocks on Delon was he was old for a Sophomore.

You are on to the thing that is the real inefficiency that can be taken advantage of imo... the guys that excel as role guys at a high level in NCAA may be better targets than guys that put up gawdy numbers and play with the ball in their hands. Having a base as a 3 and D guy gives you some leash to slowly figure out what else you can do. If Dalen was just a low volume 3 and D guy its not as intriguing but if you add in the assist numbers that is what adds the big intrigue for me.

In the 20s I'd take swings on guys like Moore, Terry before guys like McGowens just because I think they know their role/nba skill and it is much more achievable than a guy who is on ball creating shots.

 

[KqWIN]

Steal rate, block rate, and rebound rate have long been touted by the analytics crowd as things that translate. If I see a guard with a lot of steals that also rebounds well I feel pretty solid that he is an activity guy. Reaves actually played both on and off ball roles in his different stops. I think you can look at activity and see who "hustles". I think its a skill/talent to play hard and understand where the ball is going and get to it and its something that I think translates actually quite well from NCAA o NBA.

Any indicator has failures and successes. Paul Millsap was a huge success as a hustle guy and he was 13 boards 2 steals and 2 blocks per game his last college year... then the other stuff he added really benefited him. I think people knew Herb would be a hustle guy and solid defensively (maybe not as good as he is) but it was questions on his shot and offensive role. that pushed him to the second round.

Right....I don't think Paul Millsap would have slipped through in today's NBA. The guys who are both really good in college and also have the high stocks/rebounds are very good bets. I am also a member of the Church of Fat = Potential.

With hindsight, we should have given Herb more credit (I know there were tons of fans of him). He was a 23% usage player and displayed a ton of point forward ability. His defense is obviously what makes him standout in the NBA, but he really shouldn't be mistaken for someone that had zero game coming into the league.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

The only similarities are Lamb is a good rebounder and gets steals. If I was guessing I'd bet Terry is more in the mold of Delon Wright.

Delon can't shoot. He's very limited when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. That's why he doesn't play much and never sticks on teams. Delon is also not as explosive athletically as Terry. Delon is basically a backup PG who can guard up a position or two. I wouldn't compare him to Terry.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Delon can't shoot. He's very limited when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. That's why he doesn't play much and never sticks on teams. Delon is also not as explosive athletically as Terry. Delon is basically a backup PG who can guard up a position or two. I wouldn't compare him to Terry.

Shoots like 35%+ now every year on a low volume. Very good defender and rebounder... is more of a game manager type pg. He's a very solid 3rd guard. I give zero ***** he has been passed around to different teams. Dalen will be lucky to have his career.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Right....I don't think Paul Millsap would have slipped through in today's NBA. The guys who are both really good in college and also have the high stocks/rebounds are very good bets. I am also a member of the Church of Fat = Potential.

With hindsight, we should have given Herb more credit (I know there were tons of fans of him). He was a 23% usage player and displayed a ton of point forward ability. His defense is obviously what makes him standout in the NBA, but he really shouldn't be mistaken for someone that had zero game coming into the league.

I would agree... but I don't think he'd go lotto or anything.

When I am guessing (cuz that's what it is lets be honest) on guys I tend to look at steals and assists as IQ type things as well as hustle. Both numbers require guys to read the floor and see what is happening before it does. Guys like Jake LaRavia for example... good shooter, some of his on ball stuff may not work at the next level, but 4 assists and 2 steals per game from a guy that isn't a point guard... makes me think he knows what is going on out there. Won't be surprised if he's a diamond... also fits the Fat is Potential in Disguise. Not super fat but could lose a couple lbs.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Shoots like 35%+ now every year on a low volume. Very good defender and rebounder... is more of a game manager type pg. He's a very solid 3rd guard. I give zero ***** he has been passed around to different teams. Dalen will be lucky to have his career.

Okay, I'll disagree with you there. I don't think Delon is a good comp for Terry, as Terry is more of a wing and a secondary playmaker. I also think Terry has starter potential, whereas Delon no longer does.

(FWIW, Delon was also a senior at the U when he entered the draft.)

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Okay, I'll disagree with you there. I don't think Delon is a good comp for Terry, as Terry is more of a wing and a secondary playmaker. I also think Terry has starter potential, whereas Delon no longer does.

That fine. I'd happily start Delon next to Donovan. May not play him 36 minutes a night like a normal starter but he fits in a lot of different configurations.

 

[KqWIN]

I would agree... but I don't think he'd go lotto or anything.

When I am guessing (cuz that's what it is lets be honest) on guys I tend to look at steals and assists as IQ type things as well as hustle. Both numbers require guys to read the floor and see what is happening before it does. Guys like Jake LaRavia for example... good shooter, some of his on ball stuff may not work at the next level, but 4 assists and 2 steals per game from a guy that isn't a point guard... makes me think he knows what is going on out there. Won't be surprised if he's a diamond... also fits the Fat is Potential in Disguise. Not super fat but could lose a couple lbs.

Laravia definitely looks good on paper. He obviously has some game, but has the hustle stats to go along with it. Something that's interesting about his numbers is that he was ridiculously good from mid range (2PT non-rim) this year. 25% of his shots and he shot 53% on them....only 5% of those shots were assisted. He was very bad on those shots at Indiana St so I don't what to make of it. From highlights, it looks like a lot of the work came from the post, which probably won't translate.....It's weird, don't think it means anything but you don't see that very often.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Laravia definitely looks good on paper. He obviously has some game, but has the hustle stats to go along with it. Something that's interesting about his numbers is that he was ridiculously good from mid range (2PT non-rim) this year. 25% of his shots and he shot 53% on them....only 5% of those shots were assisted. He was very bad on those shots at Indiana St so I don't what to make of it. From highlights, it looks like a lot of the work came from the post, which probably won't translate.....It's weird, don't think it means anything but you don't see that very often.

It always looks obvious with hindsight... and LaRavia is a guy I could see being a steal and everyone being like "of course he was a steal... look at xyz". He's a great candidate for the Desmond Bane Award this year. Short wingspan... some definite skill... some great indicators and is clearly a guy that knows how to play basketball.