2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Handlogten's Heros]

I went through a couple different ways I could see 4-9 shaking out and I think the two most likely consensus top-9 players who could be available at 9 are Ausar/Jarace.

Indiana at 6 and Washington at 8 are the big wildcards that will change the draft based on their picks.

I think Hendricks at 7 and Black at 8 make the most sense for both teams currently.

There is a possibility Orlando could take Hendricks or Black at 6 though.

Basically this. No idea which way Orlando/Washington would go. Came to the same conclusion that Ausar or Walker were most likely to slide. Taylor will fit more places.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Basically this. No idea which way Orlando/Washington would go. Came to the same conclusion that Ausar or Walker were most likely to slide. Taylor will fit more places.

You could make a case for Hendricks as high as 5 but I really think his floor is 7. If he doesn’t go 7 I think we have a good chance of getting him as I don’t see WAS taking him. Black is getting some chatter at 4 but I think 6 is his ceiling with a slight chance he could go 7 but I think his floor is 8 unless WAS decided to go with Ausar if he was there or something like that.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I think Hendricks will bust, so if he's the one available of the consensus top 9 I'd rather trade down if some team in the late lottery likes him.

 

[Elizah Huge]

There is a scenario where Cam falls to 6 and we do 9 plus a future 1st for 6. Orlando takes whoever is left out of Hendricks/Black/Jarace/Ausar at 9.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I think Hendricks will bust, so if he's the one available of the consensus top 9 I'd rather trade down if some team in the late lottery likes him.

I don’t really see how he busts. The low end version of him is a really nice 3 and D player.

 

[default]

Thanks for confirming what I just said in the post you quoted and that you didn’t read it.

I wasn’t arguing with you. I did read. I was simply following up. Also my original comment was a reply to a poster asking if there was any basketball reason to sell a pick. it’s all good.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Hendricks will bust, so if he's the one available of the consensus top 9 I'd rather trade down if some team in the late lottery likes him.

I don’t really see how he busts. The low end version of him is a really nice 3 and D player.

Probably one of the least bustable players in the lotto.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I don’t really see how he busts. The low end version of him is a really nice 3 and D player.

I think RoCo is a lower-range outcome for him.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

I don’t really see how he busts. The low end version of him is a really nice 3 and D player.

Any player can bust. What is it, 70% of draft picks 4-10 end up below league average?

I randomly looked at a draft year and 6/10 were below average. I looked at 2005. Only 4 players drafted in top 10 were above average according to BR's Box plus minus, Bogut, Williams, Paul, and Bynum. Lots of MEH everywhere else. Marvin Willaims, Felton, Martell Webster, Charlie Villanova (RIP Hot Rod), Channing Frye, Ike Diogu. I guess if you get Channing Frye with Hendricks you're good with half a dozen years right at or just above league average, but that's his ceiling, not his floor.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I wasn’t arguing with you. I did read. I was simply following up. Also my original comment was a reply to a poster asking if there was any basketball reason to sell a pick. it’s all good.

I believe you. My bad.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Any player can bust. What is it, 70% of draft picks 4-10 end up below league average?

I randomly looked at a draft year and 6/10 were below average. I looked at 2005. Only 4 players drafted in top 10 were above average according to BR's Box plus minus, Bogut, Williams, Paul, and Bynum. Lots of MEH everywhere else. Marvin Willaims, Felton, Martell Webster, Charlie Villanova (RIP Hot Rod), Channing Frye, Ike Diogu. I guess if you get Channing Frye with Hendricks you're good with half a dozen years right at or just above league average, but that's his ceiling, not his floor.

His ceiling is Channing Frye? Lol dear god.

 

[Darkwing Duck]

His ceiling is Channing Frye? Lol dear god.

I believe so far as metrics go, yes.