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2023 NBA Draft Megathread

Here are some of my big misses:

** Thought Josh Jackson should be the best player in 2017; thought Tatum had a floor like Tobias Harris, but wouldn't be a star.
** Thought Mario Hezonja would be the best wing in 2015.
** Thought Archie Goodwin would be an impact guard whatever year that was. Then he disappeared.
** Don't ask me what happened to Roko Prkacin. Does he even play basketball anymore?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
With regard to the cold water Locke was slinging this AM. I get it... the numbers are what they are. But when you land a starter or fringe all-star in the draft it changes your organizational trajectory... and there is the slight chance you nail a homerun and it changes everything. So you take the bites at the apple... this is not quite lotto odds or investing in VC backed startups... but it is something where 1 hit makes up for a bunch of misses. So its okay to have hope that with 3 firsts and a plethora of assets to move around that we can hit a home run.

I get that some like Tony are overly optimistic... but I think most understand the risks and that if we draft 3 guys its unlikely they are all starters... we don't need all three to hit though.
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The averages for ANY player becoming an impact starter or All Star are BAD. Every pick that truly hits is an outlier, with the exception of some obvious #1 picks. Jazz need to take big swings. It's perfectly fine if they whiff.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
The averages for ANY player becoming an impact starter or All Star are BAD. Every pick that truly hits is an outlier, with the exception of some obvious #1 picks. Jazz need to take big swings. It's perfectly fine if they whiff.
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I don't think you have to take big swings. Mikal Bridges, Haliburton, Vassell, Trey Murphy... were not big swings but were home runs...

You just have to accept the odds for what they are. Again its not like winning the lotto. Its making good bets on the stock market type odds. Gonna take a lot of Ls but the wins may pay so big it doesn't matter.
 
The average describes the average year. How often do we reach a peak year and is this a peak year? And what is the typical result during a high end year?
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Lets be honest, we dont like Paolo just because he fits the archetype/look of some top 5 dudes who have failed in the past. He's probably really ****ing good.
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Elizah Huge said:
He is really ****ing good. Not sure I get the Randle or Griffin comps at all.
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Ferguson_Mellochill said:
Yeah, there could be something to this for me. It's partly the Duke connection, like Jabari Parker. He's a 4, and maybe he'll do just fine. I just watched him against UNC, and he wasn't able to get much space for himself due to being a bit slow-footed.
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NUMBERICA said:
What winning player is the comp, then? PF that doesn’t defend and isn’t a good spacer; what is a good team supposed to do with that?

Of course, he could improve in both respects. That’s the path to winning.
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Elizah Huge said:
Where in the world do you get that he isn’t a good spacer?

He’s closer to Jayson Tatum than Julius Randle.
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NUMBERICA said:
I should've started with the caveat that I have basically just snooped around the Ringer's draft site and go off the stats and reports there. So I should pump the brakes and people should take what I have to read with a grain of salt.

That being said, 32% on an okay volume of 3s isn't setting the world on fire. You'd be drafting him to develop him, but one would hope a top-3 pick would have the most basic elements of the game down pretty good. And he's apparently an aloof/lazy defender but has the tools. I suppose having the tools is better than trying and failing to defend, but I don't want the starting seed of a rebuild having the attribute I hate the most in a basketball player: low-effort defense.
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This was the discussion on Paolo last year. How in the world Cy is claiming he said he should go #1 is beyond me lmao.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I don't think you have to take big swings. Mikal Bridges, Haliburton, Vassell, Trey Murphy... were not big swings but were home runs...

You just have to accept the odds for what they are. Again its not like winning the lotto. Its making good bets on the stock market type odds. Gonna take a lot of Ls but the wins may pay so big it doesn't matter.
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Taking a big "swing" has not really proven to be a good way to hit a good home run. I think the first question to ask of every prospect is how they're going to get on the court and contribute. If you're outside of the elite crop, it's putting the cart before the horse to talk about all star potential.
 
Elizah Huge said:
This was the discussion on Paolo last year. How in the world Cy is claiming he said he should go #1 is beyond me lmao.
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Saint Cy of JFC said:
  1. Paolo Banchero
  2. Chet Holmgren
  3. Jaden Ivy
  4. Jabari Smith
  5. Jeremy Sochan
  6. AJ Griffin
  7. Jalen Duren
  8. Keegan Murray
  9. Johnny Davis
  10. Dyson Daniels
  11. Benedict Mathurin
  12. Shaden Sharpe
  13. Tari Eason
  14. Ousmane Dieng
  15. Jalen Williams
  16. Nikola Jovic
  17. Ochai Abaji
  18. Kendall Brown
  19. EJ Liddell
  20. Dereon Seabron
  21. Wendell Moore
  22. Kennedy Chandler
  23. Jake Laravia
  24. Justin Lewis
  25. Mark Williams
  26. Walker Kessler
  27. Christian Braun
  28. Marjon Beauchamp
  29. Josh Minott
  30. Jaylin Williams
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Because I literally had him #1 jackass.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Because I literally had him #1 jackass.
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The day of the draft after the reports of him going #1 came out lmao. You literally said "we don’t like him" at the top of my post.

Funny how Keegan ended up 8 as well after you talked all that **** weeks prior having him at like 14. That just proves you say **** just to say ****.
 
Coach Ellis said:
Thompson Twins are still my biggest concerns in the top 10. I love the physical profile, but they just struggle so much shooting the ball. I’m worried if the Jazz take one of them that we’ll look back and think it should’ve been easy to predict getting a Michael Kidd-Gillchrist type player. Hope I’m wrong, but man their shooting is just painful to watch sometimes.
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stitches said:
Heard some pretty bad stat for Ausar that I'm having hard time believing. He shot 36% on half-court possessions last year. Eek... :confused:
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amen was only at 40%.
 
Elizah Huge said:
The day of the draft after the reports of him going #1 came out lmao. You literally said "we don’t like him" at the top of my post.
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Yes, "we" being the general board thought consensus.

And I thought I was the contrarian? I had him #1 because he was my #1 player.
 
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