2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Lauri or the other long term wing?

I mean are you asking too much from a single player? Solid defense + passing + shooting is fine for the PG prospect.. dont need to add self-creation there.

Shooting forces the coverage to be there on normal half-court offense, and late game clutch possessions the ball can be in the hands of someone else.

Look at who the top lead guards and playmakers are: Luka, Lebron, Steph, SGA, Ja, Donovan, Harden, Jrue, Trae, Haliburton, Fox, Lamelo, Cade, CP, Clarkson, etc. Right now, Anthony Black isn't advanced enough off the dribble and isn't a good enough shooter/scorer to create on their level. What the Jazz need is a really solid on-ball creator. He could be a guard or a wing. He'll effectively replace what Mike Conley does.

Lauri is becoming an elite play finisher, but he's not the guy who breaks people down off the dribble and creates an advantage. He's not a playmaker per se, but he'd be great playing next to a high-level playmaker.

 

[fishonjazz]

Hawk is a poor mans Ray and Jimi is Isaac without the wingspan
I dont think either are Reggie. Maybe you were thinking of Miller, the other one

It was Hawkins. I saw a highlight video and he reminded me a ton of Reggie Miller. He was coming off screen and curls and gathering and rising up and releasing very very quickly and had a high release and a very smooth stroke. Also looked kind of long
Then as the video went on he started putting on the floor and attacking pretty well and that's where I saw a little bit of Steph is I squinted.

 

[HermanG]

Look at who the top lead guards and playmakers are: Luka, Lebron, Steph, SGA, Ja, Donovan, Harden, Jrue, Trae, Haliburton, Fox, Lamelo, Cade, CP, Clarkson, etc. Right now, Anthony Black isn't advanced enough off the dribble and isn't a good enough shooter/scorer to create on their level. What the Jazz need is a really solid on-ball creator. He could be a guard or a wing. He'll effectively replace what Mike Conley does.

Lauri is becoming an elite play finisher, but he's not the guy who breaks people down off the dribble and creates an advantage. He's not a playmaker per se, but he'd be great playing next to a high-level playmaker.

Ok I dont know if I misread you but you talked about self creation and now you talk about playmaking... Im not sure I follow what it is that Black doesnt have.

However Conley is not elite self-creator or shooter anymore in 2023 yet our offense is ranked 4th. You listed Clarkson who is one... but he is a wing.

Bigger deal is you seriously need to revise your view on Lauris self-creation. Just because he doesnt demand the ball or dribble the air out of it doesnt mean he is not self-creating.

ESPN did a breakdown 3 weeks ago about Lauri which shows the more obvious self-creation stuff and his efficiency in it:

A breakdown of Markkanen's shot chart, also through Second Spectrum, illustrates that he is finishing just about every shot style at an elite level. His 61.5 EFG% translates to an incredibly 1.45 points per possession for the Jazz when Markkanen shoots. The top-6 most common shot types for Markkanen break down as such, including the points per possession (PPP) for each:
1. Catch and Shoot: 1.59 PPP
2. Driving layup: 1.52 PPP
3. Catch and Shoot Relocating: 1.37 PPP
4. Cut Layup: 1.61 PPP
5. Standstill Layup: 1.59 PPP
6. Step back: 1.33 PPP
To give those numbers a bit of context, the the Celtics have had the best team offense in the NBA this season, scoring 1.18 PPP. But when Markkanen shoots in almost any way, the Jazz offense produces points at a significantly better rate. Markkanen is elite at working off the ball as a catch-and-shoot or cutter, forcing opposing defenses to game plan and account for him even when he doesn't have the ball. He's also an on-ball threat as well, creating his own shot off the dribble with excellent scoring efficiency on driving layups and step back jumpers. And I should point out, Markkanen is listed at 7-foot, 240 pounds and faces plenty opposing big men, who struggle to guard a player who is just as comfortable outside the arc as he is in the paint.

Its not listed there since it has lower frequency than the 6th, but here is another:

Kyrie is the most effective high volume iso scorer in the league with 247 points on 193 iso plays (1.28 PPP). Lauri averages exactly the same points per iso (68 P on 53 iso, 1.28 PPP).

He is the most effective scorer in the league because he can score effectively in every which way. And that is despite he is the #1 guy opponents worry about.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Ok I dont know if I misread you but you talked about self creation and now you talk about playmaking... Im not sure I follow what it is that Black doesnt have.

Black doesn't have much self-creation or playmaking, imo. He's just not very advanced with the ball in his hands yet. He might be able to run some screen/roll stuff, but he's not a consistent threat to score or beat defenses off the dribble. I don't think you want him running your offense right now, though he might be an interesting defensive guard/wing who plays off the ball.

However Conley is not elite self-creator or shooter anymore in 2023 yet our offense is ranked 4th. You listed Clarkson who is one... but he is a wing.

Bigger deal is you seriously need to revise your view on Lauris self-creation. Just because he doesnt demand the ball or dribble the air out of it doesnt mean he is not self-creating.

Conley is still okay as a floor general, but he's not quite as elite as the Jazz would want to build a contending team, imo. Conley is also 35 and needs to be replaced one way or another. Lauri is emerging as a bonafide scorer, but he still needs guys to set him up with room to drive or to get him open looks on the perimeter. He's not enough of a passer or playmaker to run your offense through. Jazz are going to need a lead ball-handler.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I have guarded optimism about Keyonte George becoming a high-level lead guard. He's a bit unpredictable and not very efficient, but with NBA coaching there could be enough to work with. He needs to add strength and probably needs to work within a system that helps get him some room. It should help that Lauri and Kessler will both have enough gravity to draw defenders and buy our guards some space.

 

[HermanG]

Black doesn't have much self-creation or playmaking, imo. He's just not very advanced with the ball in his hands yet. He might be able to run some screen/roll stuff, but he's not a consistent threat to score or beat defenses off the dribble. I don't think you want him running your offense right now, though he might be an interesting defensive guard/wing who plays off the ball.



Conley is still okay as a floor general, but he's not quite as elite as the Jazz would want to build a contending team, imo. Conley is also 35 and needs to be replaced one way or another.

Lauri is emerging as a bonafide scorer, but he still needs guys to set him up with room to drive or to get him open looks on the perimeter. He's not enough of a passer or playmaker to run your offense through.

I trust you on Black then. Why are others high on him? What does he do well? Is it just the athleticism/frame?

You just repeated what you said about Lauri completely disregarding the evidence that I provided to back my contradicting eyeball test. Have you got anything besides your eyeball test?

But your argument is easy to refute. Go check his free throw rate. See where he ranks in January.

Open looks and lanes created by teammates get you to 9th in NBA in FTA/gm with Lauris touch and FGA volumes?

You are being fooled by the fact that he doesnt hog the ball. He is not a good passer... that much I agree on.. and thus shouldnt be the primary ballhandler. But he can go and get you a bucket without being spoonfed.

 

[KqWIN]

maybe so… if you don’t project some shooting improvement then Turner is a far comp… but Evan Turner with a jumper is a great player… just never really clicked. If I’m the Jazz in the 10-14 range I feel amazing about landing Black.

I definitely don’t mind him at the range, but like I said earlier I was really excited about him before the year started and he hasn’t met those sky high expectations. The thought of him as tall, utility PG is interesting, but it’s feeling increasingly likely that he’ll never be a balm handler without tremendous improvement. Thinking about him as a wing removes a lot of the excitement for me, but I still like him. Just not a high/mid lottery prospect.

I think this draft is really week after #2, but then picks up in the 10-15 range. Most of the guys who were high/mid lottery have lowered their stock IMO but a lot of guys have come out of nowhere to enter into that range. Not a bad year to be picking in this range.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Crazy that human beings get made in this size.

Think this dude might potentially go through a GIannis like bulk.

 

[Coach Ellis]

Crazy that human beings get made in this size.

Think this dude might potentially go through a GIannis like bulk.

It’s worth the risk to drop in the standings and cross your fingers. Especially if your consolation prize ends up being Jerace Walker. . .

 

[YoungJefe]

It’s worth the risk to drop in the standings and cross your fingers. Especially if your consolation prize ends up being Jerace Walker. . .

I'd be ecstatic if we landed Scoot

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Jarace Walker top 5 and he's closer to 3 than 5

 

[seattlejazzfan]

black really struggles to get shots off. that low release, set shot is really hampering him right now in terms of being an impact offensive player. 38% FGs, 25% 3pt in conference play. the step up in competition has really done a number on him - and that's a major concern.

meanwhile, keyonte george, jarace walker and a few other top guys have elevated their games in conference play.