2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[Saint Cy of JFC]

What size of 3 point line does OTE play with? I would assume college since multiple people mention that the twins will be better with NBA spacing.

NBA

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

IF we are talking pure shooting the best is probably Hawkins. He has the most "rare" shooting skill with his movement shooting. No off-ball player is guarded as closely as he is in the country IMO.

Miller is the best functional shooter with his size.

Dick probably isnt the best at anything, but he has great size w/ a high release.

Jett Howard is booty imo.

Keyonte has the prettiest off the dribble shot. Buttery smooth

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Your implication is that the difference between two players is simply their declaration status. I'm sorry but that is ****ing stupid. Why do you think people believe JHS will declare and Bailey will not? We don't know their draft decision.

I guarantee you anyone (besides yourself apparently) that has JHS ranked higher than Amari Bailey is because they think JHS is a better player. That's kinda how this thing works.

I'm sorry but it's the truth.

I'm telling you if Riley Kugel declared tomorrow at some point he would start getting major buzz.

My main point is that the boards/mocks we ready are not the driving factors. NBA teams are. Sometimes these things intersect, but it's not always the case. NBA teams have vested interest in keeping stock down on players they would rather see return to school even if they like their long-term potential. Once they full declare and make their intentions known though, they get a more detailed look and analysis. I've been focusing on this **** for the last 13 damn years, I've seen it play out time and time again.

Let's look no further to Sam Vecenie's latest big board with this quote:

• As much as anything, I’m trying to project some ins and outs here. We’ll get that information officially soon, and I’ll update this when it comes out. But there is certainly a matter of guesswork at this stage. For instance, Florida freshman wing Riley Kugel would undeniably feature highly, but he said at a news conference last weekend that he doesn’t “have any ideas of leaving this team any time soon like transfer portal or anything like that.” Connecticut center Donovan Clingan’s high school coach was reported as saying a couple of weeks ago that, “he knows he needs more time.” Senegalese wing Thierry Darlan could still theoretically declare for this draft, but he has committed to G League Ignite for next season. I’m really interested in 6-foot-10 wing Bobi Klintman at Wake Forest long term, but he’s just emerging and would probably be better served to take the upside swing at staying and trying his luck in 2024. There are countless other examples of freshmen in whom I have some interest but find it relatively unlikely based on media comments or the rawness of their overall games that they’ll be in this draft. If you don’t see a player like that here, that’s why.

Vecenie a top 5 "connected" draft writer (meaning guy who uses and has actual NBA sources, not just personal opinion). He is personally saying Im not hyping up guys who I dont think will enter. Straight from the horse's mouth my dude.

 

[framer]

The lack of Filipowski in these will come back to haunt you guys. I’ll go easy on you when the time comes.

I feel like we are probably the worst fan base for Filipowski because we already have the absolute best version of whatever it is he can become.

 

[framer]

If an NFT could play in the NBA, it would be a Thompson Twin. They may be awesome, but I do think whoever takes them will do so because of the peer pressure involved and not because they absolutely think they will be the best picks there.

It would be fun if they do work out though, because their teams will be forced to play differently which the NBA could use a little more of.

 

[KqWIN]

I'm sorry but it's the truth.

I'm telling you if Riley Kugel declared tomorrow at some point he would start getting major buzz.

My main point is that the boards/mocks we ready are not the driving factors. NBA teams are. Sometimes these things intersect, but it's not always the case. NBA teams have vested interest in keeping stock down on players they would rather see return to school even if they like their long-term potential. Once they full declare and make their intentions known though, they get a more detailed look and analysis. I've been focusing on this **** for the last 13 damn years, I've seen it play out time and time again.

Let's look no further to Sam Vecenie's latest big board with this quote:



Vecenie a top 5 "connected" draft writer (meaning guy who uses and has actual NBA sources, not just personal opinion). He is personally saying Im not hyping up guys who I dont think will enter. Straight from the horse's mouth my dude.

I have never contested that players will rise in mock drafts if they receive buzz. What I have contested is that the reason one freshman is ranked over the other in mock draft at this stage is not because they think they will declare or not. You turned it into this mock draft vs intel debate. That was never the talking point. You decided to take this direction, when the initial question was "why is Amari bailey ranked lower than JHS". If it came out tomorrow that Detroit was tanking for Amari Bailey instead of Wemby this whole time and they love him of course he would shoot up draft boards. I'm not trying to get into this stawman debate.

You know what, lets just throw out rankings all together to make it simple. Why do people think Amari is worse than JHS? That's what I'm asking. If you truly believe that people think Amari is a lot worse than JHS because Amari won't declare, I've got nothing else. It's pretty obvious to me that people don't think Amari will declare is because they don't think he's good enough and not the other way around. The reason why they think JHS will declare is because they think he is better. This could change if information changes, but no I do not think that players are ranked where they are because of intel people do not have.

 

[KqWIN]

This is kinda overkill, but Ima just do a rundown as to what I think are significant differences. Let's start with Dick and see if any of the aformentioned check all of these boxes in the same way or better.

Dick:
-Freshman
-Came in with a reputation as shooter and can do it in a bunch of different ways (motion, some off the dribble)
-Played in a major conference (top-tier SOS. Also, Kansas' SOS is substantially higher than anyone but maybe Baylor but we'll mostly disregard that)
-made 79 3s at 40% (2nd in the Big 12)
-6' 8"
-.582 TS%
-18.1 PER

(note: text in black tries to communicate a wash [unless a factor cannot be improved a la "Freshman"])

Whitehead:
-Freshman
-Did not come in with a reputation as a shooter (I suspect his shots were more stationary as well)
-Played in a major conference
-made 37 3s at 41%
-6' 7" (but 220, probably has the edge here but maybe it's wash-ish)
-.532 TS%
-13.5 PER

Hawkins:
-Sophomore
-Without a doubt a great shooter
-major conference
-made 85 3s at 37%
-6' 5"
-.570 TS%
-19.4 PER

Sensabaugh:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep coming in
-major conference
-made 60 3s at 40.5%
-6' 6"
-.587 TS%
-26.4 PER

George:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep (but definitely shoots more off the dribble than the others)
-major
-made 76 3s at 35% (blech) (also shot 43% from 2... super blech)
-6' 4"
-.534 TS %
-18.3 PER

Miller is simply a superior player, not wasting my time

Howard:
-Freshman
-not sure his rep
-major
-made 78 3s at 37%
-6' 8"
-.562 TS%
-16.7 PER

I know you specifically said they compare similarly by percentage which is somewhat true, but I think there is A LOT more to consider if we're trying to assess exactly how they might translate to the pros and none of those players check the boxes like Dick. It'll be interesting to see official measurements because that is a meaningful attribute to how much one's shot can be bothered generally, but I think age is a huge component. I just don't think anyone compares favorably in all of these respects (save maybe Miller who is just on a different tier altogether).

Well, to be clear what I mean by "best shooter" is the guy who is best at shooting (from 3) and not the best player who you might call a shooter. The baseline for my opinion on shooters is the tankathon projected 3. It's essentially just the mathmatical way of doing this, and while it's not perfect, it is a good place to start. From there I put in my own opinion based on what matters most.

PER and TS% are not a consideration for me for 3 point shooting, they are too far removed from what I'm actually trying to assess. I factor in volume 3 point shooting heavily, but I do not do this by made 3's as that is highly skewed by minutes played. Instead, I will look at attempts per minute/possession. The combination of raw 3 point percentage and volume is what matters to me ***. The next things I would look at are how many 3's are assisted and watch film to get a feel for the types of attempts a player is shooting. After that, I'd look at things like FT%, form, size etc.

Like I said, you can look at all those things and still come to the conclusion that Dick is the best. But these guys are all in the same ballpark as shooters.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Well, to be clear what I mean by "best shooter" is the guy who is best at shooting (from 3) and not the best player who you might call a shooter. The baseline for my opinion on shooters is the tankathon projected 3. It's essentially just the mathmatical way of doing this, and while it's not perfect, it is a good place to start. From there I put in my own opinion based on what matters most.

PER and TS% are not a consideration for me for 3 point shooting, they are too far removed from what I'm actually trying to assess. I factor in volume 3 point shooting heavily, but I do not do this by made 3's as that is highly skewed by minutes played. Instead, I will look at attempts per minute/possession. The combination of raw 3 point percentage and volume is what matters to me ***. The next things I would look at are how many 3's are assisted and watch film to get a feel for the types of attempts a player is shooting. After that, I'd look at things like FT%, form, size etc.

Like I said, you can look at all those things and still come to the conclusion that Dick is the best. But these guys are all in the same ballpark as shooters.

How do you weigh volume and ignore raw makes/attempts? Those seem to be all-but the absolute same thing.

 

[KqWIN]

How do you weigh volume and ignore raw makes/attempts? Those seem to be all-but the absolute same thing.

Like I said, per min/poss. IMO, the total makes over a season doesn't give me a better picture than the attempts and makes per min/poss. I don't know if you'd call attempts/makes per minute/poss raw or not, but that's what I would use instead of a season total.

 

[The Thriller]

Hawkins is Bane 2.0. Pass him at your own peril.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I saw a twitter poll asking if we got the #1 pick would you trade it for Luka. It was 70/30 in favor of Luka over Wemby. I was surprised, but maybe it’s dumb to be surprised. Is it stupid if I take Victor? I’d rather just go from the start with the insane prospect and enjoy the ride. Factoring in contract stuff makes the decision even easier.

 

[Jingled]

I saw a twitter poll asking if we got the #1 pick would you trade it for Luka. It was 70/30 in favor of Luka over Wemby. I was surprised, but maybe it’s dumb to be surprised. Is it stupid if I take Victor? I’d rather just go from the start with the insane prospect and enjoy the ride. Factoring in contract stuff makes the decision even easier.

As great as Luka is, I would definitely take Wemby. He's the best prospect since LeBron, and he has a chance to be one of the best players of all time.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I saw a twitter poll asking if we got the #1 pick would you trade it for Luka. It was 70/30 in favor of Luka over Wemby. I was surprised, but maybe it’s dumb to be surprised. Is it stupid if I take Victor? I’d rather just go from the start with the insane prospect and enjoy the ride. Factoring in contract stuff makes the decision even easier.

Wemby. and this question will sound so ****ing funny in five years that it’ll be unbelievable.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I saw a twitter poll asking if we got the #1 pick would you trade it for Luka. It was 70/30 in favor of Luka over Wemby. I was surprised, but maybe it’s dumb to be surprised. Is it stupid if I take Victor? I’d rather just go from the start with the insane prospect and enjoy the ride. Factoring in contract stuff makes the decision even easier.

Id go Luka 100%.

I'll take the guaranteed all time great over theoretical. This Jazz team plus Luka wins rings now.

 

[Ron Mexico]

Id go Luka 100%.

I'll take the guaranteed all time great over theoretical. This Jazz team plus Luka wins rings now.

Especially when you consider all the picks we still have to make a move for other players to fit in. I'll sacrifice a future possible championship level player for championships now. Even if Wemby is a generational player, who knows if we even retain him like LeBron and Cleveland. Wemby could also end up not great for a bunch of reasons like health.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Especially when you consider all the picks we still have to make a move for other players to fit in. I'll sacrifice a future possible championship level player for championships now. Even if Wemby is a generational player, who knows if we even retain him like LeBron and Cleveland. Wemby could also end up not great for a bunch of reasons like health.

Idk how the retaining part factors in because retaining Luka would be harder, but yeah a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

As great as Luka is, I would definitely take Wemby. He's the best prospect since LeBron, and he has a chance to be one of the best players of all time.

Plus at least 7 years of team control… Luka is already on the FA clock. I also think the way Luka plays reminds me of Harden… and I think it wouldnt be much fun to watch.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Especially when you consider all the picks we still have to make a move for other players to fit in. I'll sacrifice a future possible championship level player for championships now. Even if Wemby is a generational player, who knows if we even retain him like LeBron and Cleveland. Wemby could also end up not great for a bunch of reasons like health.

Retention is a huge bonus over Luka.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Id go Luka 100%.

I'll take the guaranteed all time great over theoretical. This Jazz team plus Luka wins rings now.

I think the way Luka plays it will be hard to win a title. He’s super duper high level… but he needs to embrace a more team oriented style and he’s yet to do it.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I think the way Luka plays it will be hard to win a title. He’s super duper high level… but he needs to embrace a more team oriented style and he’s yet to do it.

I don't agree with this at all. I think if you paired Luka with someone as good as Lauri, that would be a championship contender.