2023 NBA Draft Megathread

[KqWIN]

Amari Bailey was a PG all of high school. Is he a PG that’s going to carry an offense? No, which is why I compared him more to Delon and Caruso. But he absolutely has PG skills/tendencies. He played with a senior PG all a senior PG all year and that is why he didn’t play PG, not his skill level.

The idea that he’s just a mid range scorer….well that’s factually not correct. I don’t even know how to argue that besides that we have facts and the facts do not support that at all. If you were talking about JHS, absolutely, we have numbers for this.

He’s also a really strong defender and athlete. I don’t think anyone really contests this except for Saint. And bringing up the AST/TO ratio (which is somewhat fair) is pretty rich considering the prospect he brought up. If you’re going to hold it against one guy, keep the same energy.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Curious about the possibility of trading into #2 or #3 this year by trading three or four dimes for a quarter. Jazz have a bunch - perhaps an excess - of nice, useful pieces/assets to mix n match: Clarkson SnT, THT?, Dunn?, Sexton, … and don’t crucify me here: Kessler. Plus the ability to absorb salary and obviously having multiple picks this year.

Washington or Portland might be marks for this type of thing.

There is maybe a chance... but I think it would be multiple firsts not players... I don't think Kessler would be on the table though. Some of the other players may hold a little value in that type of deal... but moving from say 10 to 2 or 3 would require premium assets not side pieces. I would guess #10 plus like at least 3 future firsts of the unprotected variety... I think that would be the low end of the spectrum.

 

[Eddie Zero]

Curious about the possibility of trading into #2 or #3 this year by trading three or four dimes for a quarter. Jazz have a bunch - perhaps an excess - of nice, useful pieces/assets to mix n match: Clarkson SnT, THT?, Dunn?, Sexton, … and don’t crucify me here: Kessler. Plus the ability to absorb salary and obviously having multiple picks this year.

Washington or Portland might be marks for this type of thing.

In retro do you think ATL would still have done that deal to get Trae since all it got them besides that was Reddish? It never works out for the team that trades down from that high, unless they KNOW the team they are trading with wants to move up for a guy you didn't want AKA Fultz Tatum.
we would have to be at 4 to get 2 and if we move up to 4 from outside the lottery I am changin my name to **** head

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Amari Bailey was a PG all of high school. Is he a PG that’s going to carry an offense? No, which is why I compared him more to Delon and Caruso. But he absolutely has PG skills/tendencies. He played with a senior PG all a senior PG all year and that is why he didn’t play PG, not his skill level.

The idea that he’s just a mid range scorer….well that’s factually not correct. I don’t even know how to argue that besides that we have facts and the facts do not support that at all. If you were talking about JHS, absolutely, we have numbers for this.

He’s also a really strong defender and athlete. I don’t think anyone really contests this except for Saint. And bringing up the AST/TO ratio (which is somewhat fair) is pretty rich considering the prospect he brought up. If you’re going to hold it against one guy, keep the same energy.

There's 3 people talking about Bailey on here lmfao. He's a combo guard. He's an OK college defender. He's not going to be a defender at the NBA level due to his mediocre size. He has no standout skills that differentiate him from the multitude of 6'3 combo guards out there.

I'm not calling Riley Kugel a PG buddy. And I'm not basing Kuglel > Bailey off of stats. It's just clear from the eye test.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

There is maybe a chance... but I think it would be multiple firsts not players... I don't think Kessler would be on the table though. Some of the other players may hold a little value in that type of deal... but moving from say 10 to 2 or 3 would require premium assets not side pieces. I would guess #10 plus like at least 3 future firsts of the unprotected variety... I think that would be the low end of the spectrum.

I'd consider trading the entirety of the Wolves picks to get Scoot.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Cade Tyson from Belmont is a name to keep an eye on in the future. Freshman at Belmont who posted some high level shooting numbers: 42% from 3 and 86% from the line. Older brother is one of the better players at Clemson. Was underrecruited due to a late growth spurt.

 

[KqWIN]

There's 3 people talking about Bailey on here lmfao. He's a combo guard. He's an OK college defender. He's not going to be a defender at the NBA level due to his mediocre size. He has no standout skills that differentiate him from the multitude of 6'3 combo guards out there.

I'm not calling Riley Kugel a PG buddy. And I'm not basing Kuglel > Bailey off of stats. It's just clear from the eye test.

Why do you keep shrinking Amari Bailey, and why is fair to criticize numbers for one player but not the other? Like, you can't just go I like the eye test for this guy but I don't like this guy because of his numbers even though they are better than the guy I like. And why did you make up that he's mainly a mid range scorer? Again, that is fact. Are you thinking of a different player? Because it is a fact that it isn't true. You don't have to like every prospect, but I find it odd you don't like a prospect based on a figment of your imagination. If you don't think it's a figment of your imagination, prove it. Let me guess, you're going to pull the "no argument needed" again. Mid range scorer with lackluster measurables AND athleticism....sure.

The way I would describe Amari Bailey's position is....what have they done to separate themselves from him? Not much and Bailey is clearly ahead of many of the other guards in certain areas.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5H83q5Y0NY


Think this dude has a chance at being a big time sophomore next season.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Why do you keep shrinking Amari Bailey, and why is fair to criticize numbers for one player but not the other? Like, you can't just go I like the eye test for this guy but I don't like this guy because of his numbers even though they are better than the guy I like. And why did you make up that he's mainly a mid range scorer? Again, that is fact. Are you thinking of a different player? Because it is a fact that it isn't true. You don't have to like every prospect, but I find it odd you don't like a prospect based on a figment of your imagination. If you don't think it's a figment of your imagination, prove it. Let me guess, you're going to pull the "no argument needed" again. Mid range scorer with lackluster measurables AND athleticism....sure.

The way I would describe Amari Bailey's position is....what have they done to separate themselves from him? Not much and Bailey is clearly ahead of many of the other guards in certain areas.

1. Because I'm not calling Kugel a PG. Therefore his A:TO ratio isnt as big of a deal. This is just common sense.
2. Why can't I use the eye test? In case you havent noticed, college basketball does not translate to the NBA based on numbers. If it was that easy, no one would miss in the draft and draft order would closely reflect the order of best to worst players. My eye test says he has no clear standout NBA qualities. I think his ceiling is likely decent bench scorer.
3. He's mostly a mid-range scorer. I'm not saying that is all he can do. He finishes well around the rim, but his comfort area is the mid-range pull-up. https://247sports.com/Article/colle...-amari-bailey-film-analytics-study-205570790/

But, the numbers aren’t particularly good. While over a third of Bailey’s total field goal attempts come on two-point jumpers per Hoop-Math.com, he’s making just 34.8% of those shots. Synergy Sports Technology allows us to break those numbers down even more – on catch-and-shoot attempts, Bailey is shooting 52.4% when he’s unguarded (which ranks in the 87th percentile – excellent), but is making only 22% of his contested catch-and-shoot shots (which ranks in the 10th percentile – poor). Off the dribble, he’s converting 36.8% of his total jump shots.

If taking a third of your total shots as mid-range jumpers doesnt make you a mid-range player, idk what does.

Further there is this

The most concerning numbers are when he is playing out of ball-screens. Between his own scoring and assists, he’s averaging 0.78 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, per Synergy. That places him in the 31st percentile, not of guards, but of all players.

So he's a NBA PG who sucks *** as a PNR ball-handler? OK.

If your take is Bailey is an interesting player for next year and a guy to keep an eye on, I agree. If your take is that he's worthy of a 1st round pick this year, I disagree whole heartedly.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

View: https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1631484083040845824


Klintman gives me strong Kuzma vibes.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I'd consider trading the entirety of the Wolves picks to get Scoot.

That is the type of offer it would take... but you'd also have to have a willing seller... if you are trying to bowl them over it will be more than that.

 

[KqWIN]

1. Because I'm not calling Kugel a PG. Therefore his A:TO ratio isnt as big of a deal. This is just common sense.
2. Why can't I use the eye test? In case you havent noticed, college basketball does not translate to the NBA based on numbers. If it was that easy, no one would miss in the draft and draft order would closely reflect the order of best to worst players.
3. He's mostly a mid-range scorer. I'm not saying that is all he can do. He finishes well around the rim, but his comfort area is the mid-range pull-up. https://247sports.com/Article/colle...-amari-bailey-film-analytics-study-205570790/

If taking a third of your total shots as mid-range jumpers doesnt make you a mid-range player, idk what does.

Further there is this

So he's a NBA PG who sucks *** as a PNR ball-handler? OK.

If your take is Bailey is an interesting player for next year and a guy to keep an eye on, I agree. If your take is that he's worthy of a 1st round pick this year, I disagree whole heartedly.

You can use eye test, just don't be an eye test guy when it suits you and a stats guy when it doesn't suit you. If you're calling Kugel a combo, guess what they are both undersized as well.

The article you linked literally lists his strengths, and all 3 of them were related to getting to the basket. His mid range game was considered a weakness. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't call someone a mid range scorer when it's a weakness and all of their biggest strengths are related to being around the basket. His mid range game is a work in progress. By far his best offensive trait is his slashing. It's obvious on film, it's obvious in the numbers, it's obvious from reading the article you linked. His comfort area is the rim, where he attempts 44% of his shots. So no, he is not mostly a mid range scorer. This is 100% factually incorrect. He has scored double the amount of points at the rim as he has in the mid range, and a lot of these "mid range" buckets are floaters anyways. At minimum, if you're going to call someone a mid range scorer it would at least be a strength or defining aspect of his game. If you're going going to call someone "mostly" a mid rage scorer, than they would have to mostly be a mid range scorer which is objectlivey false with Amari Bailey.

And please do not backpedal on this. If you're going to call Bailey a 6'3, mid range scorer, who is a lackluster athlete, and average defender say it with your chest. Don't go "well he does shoot some mid range jumpers and therefore I am not wrong about him being a mid range player" while also being so adamant that he can't be a PG. The main parts of his game are quite obvious. Defense, mentality/competitiveness, and athleticism/slashing on offense. I don't know why you would choose to call him a mid range scorer, when that is a weakness not a strength, and then go on to shrink his size and also call him a lackluster athlete and average defender. It's like you have it backwards. His mid range scoring is the issue, his athleticism and defense is how he shines the most. Read your own article.

My take is that he shouldn't be 30+ spots ranked lower than the other guards in this draft. I think Bufkin and Bailey are both better investments at the end of the first than JHS at the end of the lottery for example. The article actually gives a pretty good breakdown of why I like him. His defense and competitiveness stand out and as the article states this is "widely known". No one besides you contests this, which is fine, but I hope it's not on the basis of shrinking him and making up what type of player he is. His open court speed is fantastic as well as his athleticism and dexterity to finish around the basket. I think he has all the tools to be a great connector and defensive player in the NBA. His PnR play will never be his bread and butter and he won't be a PG who drives the offense in a large way. This limits his ceiling, but he's still very much worth consideration of UTA's last pick.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

That is the type of offer it would take... but you'd also have to have a willing seller... if you are trying to bowl them over it will be more than that.

There might be a team that would take one of the Thompsons, or Walker, or Miller ahead of Scoot based on positional need. So if the trade package included a high pick in this draft to get one of these other players it would be a discussion.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

If people sour on Scoot and it becomes a situation like when Luka fell to three, we should definitely have some kind of huge offer ready to go.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

There might be a team that would take one of the Thompsons, or Walker, or Miller ahead of Scoot based on positional need. So if the trade package included a high pick in this draft to get one of these other players it would be a discussion.

Yeah it might need to be some sort of three team deal where we send 10 and stuff for 4 and the team at #2 gets 4 and stuff. Even then I think the team at #4 would be looking to parlay draft "stuff" into established players.

I think there are too many opportunities for someone to say "no" in that type of deal. We should just win the lottery instead... or the second pick... or the third... cuz the odds of us swinging a deal are less than the odds we will have to win a top 4 pick.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think we might find an opportunity to trade into the 4-6 range based on how some teams may view the draft... I think that might be a solid value play and getting a Thompson twin or Cam Whitmore might be worth it (assuming we land (11-14). Positionally and roster planning with those prospects gets a little easier... think Whitmore and Ausar are true SFs and Amen is a wing sized pg... so run him at point or on the wing. Jarace is nice but I think he's a four that will be a bit of a clunky fit next to Walker and Lauri... If we opted to stay in the 11-14 range and picked one of Cason, Black, Hendo I'd get it and be happy.

 

[sip]

If people sour on Scoot and it becomes a situation like when Luka fell to three, we should definitely have some kind of huge offer ready to go.

The problem is that we probably need to have a top 6 pick to make someone willing to move down a little bit.

 

[KqWIN]

At risk of sounding like a complete dumbass....I don't think Scoot is worth breaking the bank for. He could be the next Luka....but I see him more like an average top 3 pick and no longer a generational PG prospect. The lack of development year to year is a worry for me as is his playstyle.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

You can use eye test, just don't be an eye test guy when it suits you and a stats guy when it doesn't suit you. If you're calling Kugel a combo, guess what they are both undersized as well.

The article you linked literally lists his strengths, and all 3 of them were related to getting to the basket. His mid range game was considered a weakness. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't call someone a mid range scorer when it's a weakness and all of their biggest strengths are related to being around the basket. His mid range game is a work in progress. By far his best offensive trait is his slashing. It's obvious on film, it's obvious in the numbers, it's obvious from reading the article you linked. His comfort area is the rim, where he attempts 44% of his shots. So no, he is not mostly a mid range scorer. This is 100% factually incorrect. He has scored double the amount of points at the rim as he has in the mid range, and a lot of these "mid range" buckets are floaters anyways. At minimum, if you're going to call someone a mid range scorer it would at least be a strength or defining aspect of his game. If you're going going to call someone "mostly" a mid rage scorer, than they would have to mostly be a mid range scorer which is objectlivey false with Amari Bailey.

And please do not backpedal on this. If you're going to call Bailey a 6'3, mid range scorer, who is a lackluster athlete, and average defender say it with your chest. Don't go "well he does shoot some mid range jumpers and therefore I am not wrong about him being a mid range player" while also being so adamant that he can't be a PG. The main parts of his game are quite obvious. Defense, mentality/competitiveness, and athleticism/slashing on offense. I don't know why you would choose to call him a mid range scorer, when that is a weakness not a strength, and then go on to shrink his size and also call him a lackluster athlete and average defender. It's like you have it backwards. His mid range scoring is the issue, his athleticism and defense is how he shines the most. Read your own article.

My take is that he shouldn't be 30+ spots ranked lower than the other guards in this draft. I think Bufkin and Bailey are both better investments at the end of the first than JHS at the end of the lottery for example. The article actually gives a pretty good breakdown of why I like him. His defense and competitiveness stand out and as the article states this is "widely known". No one besides you contests this, which is fine, but I hope it's not on the basis of shrinking him and making up what type of player he is. His open court speed is fantastic as well as his athleticism and dexterity to finish around the basket. I think he has all the tools to be a great connector and defensive player in the NBA. His PnR play will never be his bread and butter and he won't be a PG who drives the offense in a large way. This limits his ceiling, but he's still very much worth consideration of UTA's last pick.

1. What on Earth are you trying to call me out on? I use eye test and stats as I see fit. This isnt a consistent thing, drafting/evaluating is tricky.

2. RIley Kugel is much bigger than Bailey. As a 2-guard Kugel has what I would consider solid size. He has a big frame and long arms. As a combo guard (gun to my head would label him a 2-guard with potential to develop combo skills) he's huge.

3. If you are attempting a third of your shot profile in the mid-range you are a mid-range dominant player by modern standards. This isnt the 90s. And when you watch Bailey you can clearly tell that is what he is most comfortable doing, even if he isnt that great at it. He played on a star loaded team so his volume from mid-range was less and he was able to get easy opportunities in the paint. Like I said, I commended him for fitting into a good team. You're acting like I said he was some trash can. He's just not worthy of being a first rounder until he shows more than being an average 6'3 guard with no standout NBA level ability.

4. He is small. IDK what you are so hard on this point of him not being small when he's clearly small. He's got narrow shoulders and short arms. I think Bailey is probably 6'3.5 at most in shoes w/ a 6'5 to 6'6 wingspan. Kugel will probably measure 6'5.5 in shoes w/ a 6'9 to 6'10 wingspan. Plus Kugel already has 20 lbs+ of frame over Bailey.

5. He isn't anywhere near Bufkin or JHS.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Yeah it might need to be some sort of three team deal where we send 10 and stuff for 4 and the team at #2 gets 4 and stuff. Even then I think the team at #4 would be looking to parlay draft "stuff" into established players.

I think there are too many opportunities for someone to say "no" in that type of deal. We should just win the lottery instead... or the second pick... or the third... cuz the odds of us swinging a deal are less than the odds we will have to win a top 4 pick.

What I'm saying is, if you want to trade up to #2 you might need to offer #4 or #5 in this draft, plus future draft picks in return. The other team's rationale would be that they're already invested in a young, All Star-level lead guard. It could apply to a team like Charlotte, OKC, Indiana or Detroit.