What can be done about borderline busts? You need a strong coach, organization, scouting and development program to make these selections succeed. It is simply just selecting these players and sitting on your hands. Everything has to be geared to help these players grow and achieve.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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fishonjazz
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Man Singleton turned out so so bad.
fishonjazz
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Understood. But lets say there are 20 foreign players drafted in the last 4 drafts and 18 are busts. And lets say there are 150 american players drafted in the last 4 drafts and 75 are busts. That would mean the foreign players bust at a higher ratio. Just because there are less of them drafted doesn't mean they cant have a higher ratio of busts lol.
This is a great point. Environment has a lot to do with a players development. I would definitely put more emphasis on a player being in the right situation to succeed.
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Ya that was a pretty bad post.
That would be true, but those are also made up numbers. If @Elizah Huge wants to show how overseas outcomes are worse, I'm all ears. It doesn't help or hurt the ratio if there are 10 foreign prospects or 100.
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Exactly. Just the number of busts or successes hurts or helps the ratio. I listed a bunch of foreign players drafted in the top 10 who were busts. I cant think of many that weren't doe. So that would lead me to believe that they have a higher ratio of being busts. I cant be certain without actual data but it sure seems to be the case. Do you disagree? If so, why?
By the way, Eliza never said that simply having less prospects was the reason for the high bust ratio. It was all the busts he could come up with very quickly and easily off the top of his head and the lack of successes that made him feel that there is a high bust ratio. Which makes sense to me. Does that make sense to you?
Since 2015 there has been a total of 25 international players drafted in the first round. Only 4 of them are any good.
That’s a 16% hit percentage. The only hits are Doncic, Giddey, Porzingis and Sengun.
That’s a 16% hit percentage. The only hits are Doncic, Giddey, Porzingis and Sengun.
Lots of bad orgs, coaches and team dynamics and the scouting org is not aligned with the teams. Of course players will fizzle out.
I disagree because I don't use anecdotes and there is not enough compelling evidence to suggest that foreign players are worse. Simply listing off foreign player busts is not enough because you have to compare that to all the American busts.
What I do know is that foreign born players seem to be over represented in the MVP ballots, All NBA teams, and All star teams. I'm not swayed one way or another. I don't think a prospect is better or worse based on where he's from, but there is more compelling evidence to suggest that the development overseas is better than America.
Even after the bust stories, I look at each draft prospect and I can't help but dream of what each ones ceiling will be. But competitive sports is a zero sum game. It is just not going be good for a lot of these players for many reasons. Sigh....
That said..if Brice lost weight his defense would improve...uh..nah forget it...I am in fanboy denial...
That said..if Brice lost weight his defense would improve...uh..nah forget it...I am in fanboy denial...
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3 out of the 4 hits were drafted in the top-6.
That means since 2015 there was 1 non-bust international player drafted outside of the top-6 out of 20 total.
Here you go:
Out of the last 8 drafts only 1 international player drafted outside of the top-6 has hit out of 20 total.
That is a 5% hit rate.
There has been 192 drafted players total drafted outside of the top-6 in the last 8 years.
There would have to be a total of 10 hits for non-international players drafted outside of the top-6 in the last 8 years to have a higher hit ratio than international players. Has there been more than 10 hits in the last 8 years? Spoiler alert: there has been WAY more than that.
Now let’s count them all in total. The hit rate on an international player altogether is 16% in the last 8 drafts.
That means 35 non-international players total drafted in the first round out of the last 8 drafts would have to be hits to have a higher ratio. Has there been more than 35 hits in the last 8 years? Spoiler alert: there has been WAY more than that.
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Fair is fair, I did not expect you to actually do it so kuddos. My only disagreements would be:
I would include Lamelo and Avidja in the overseas "non bust category". I feel like if you're not going to count the foreign players who played in college, you should count the non foreign players that played overseas....and Avidja is not a bust.
If you don't stop at 2015, the ratio changes significantly. For example, if you go back three more drafts I have those three drafts as 8/13 hits. This nearly doubles the percentage. So depending on where you arbitrarily end the sample things can be much different.
The farther you go back the less relevant the data is compared to modern day draft scouting in my opinion.
I wouldn't say they are less relevant that the last 1-2 drafts because we don't even know if players from the last 1-2 drafts are busts yet. But too each their own. Does data count from earlier times? I don't see why not and I don't see a reason to cut off at one specific year or another. Unless you think something has drastically changed in overseas development, I don't know why those years would not be relevant.
Not enough for me to say that overseas players are worse than American prospects, but kudos for actually coming to the table with something. I genuinely respect the effort. I'm just not personally not convinced that overseas prospects are better or worse than their American counterpoints. If I like or dislike a player. it's not going to be on the basis of them being international or not.
Just for the conversations sake I will go back 20 years total.
I’m counting 16 total hits out of 60 pre-2015. That’s on the generous side too. That’s considering guys like Fournier, Saric, Mirotic and Sefolosha as hits, etc.
So in total that’s 20 hits out of 85 in the last 20 years. Still a 23.5% hit rate which is not great at all. That comes out to exactly 1 hit per year on average.
So in total that’s 20 hits out of 85 in the last 20 years. Still a 23.5% hit rate which is not great at all. That comes out to exactly 1 hit per year on average.
Wtf is a "hit"?
Just did a quick run through of non-international players drafted since 2003.
I counted around 240 out of 515 drafted total that would be considered hits. That’s a 46.6% hit rate total. I understand this is just based merely on my opinion only.
Let’s say I’m off by a couple percent on the non-international players on the high side and I’m off by a couple percent on the international players on the low side.
That would still put it at around a 26% hit rate vs a 44% hit rate. My quick hypothesis would be that the hit rate for non-international is almost double that of an international player on the high side.
I counted around 240 out of 515 drafted total that would be considered hits. That’s a 46.6% hit rate total. I understand this is just based merely on my opinion only.
Let’s say I’m off by a couple percent on the non-international players on the high side and I’m off by a couple percent on the international players on the low side.
That would still put it at around a 26% hit rate vs a 44% hit rate. My quick hypothesis would be that the hit rate for non-international is almost double that of an international player on the high side.