He can score a bit like a young Paul Pierce, but he doesn't play defense or pass the ball much. The offensive talent is apparent though.
2023 NBA Draft Megathread
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He can score a bit like a young Paul Pierce, but he doesn't play defense or pass the ball much. The offensive talent is apparent though.
I’m quoting exact things that you are saying. I believe those things make him stand out as a prospect. You can agree to disagree, but some things are just factual. The mid range thing is factual. The athleticism, defense, and slashing are subjective….but I haven’t seen a single person question those besides yourself. His defensive and finishing numbers are great compared to the rest of the field. Very few prospects are going to walk into the NBA with a host of NBA ready skills. I think Bailey is ready to contribute right away with his defense and offense in transition. We’ll see how the shooting comes along and that will be very important going forward. But first and foremost, he will be reliant on his defense and ability to finish around the basket. He isn’t going to be a 25 usage player at the next level. He will probably be closer to 15. I’m not concerned about his mid range game because I don’t envision him using that much if at all in the NBA. That’s not what his role will be.
I like a lot of Amari Bailey's game and athleticism but I think he needs another year at least at college and he'd better hope he grows another couple inches b/c ucla team photo no way he is taller than 6'3" looking at him next to Jacques who i also question if he is even 6'7"
You are quoting things without context of what was actually meant. You keep bringing up what he did well in college when that's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about projecting.
And you seem to be completely unaware of modern shot distribution.
HeatCheck
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately there won't be an idiot GM such as Vlade Divac who will be sitting at #2. There are several bad teams incl Orlando, Spurs, Houston, Wizards that are in desperate need of a lead guard. Fairly good chance a few of them land in the top 4.
Whoever ends up with the #2 pick will determine Scoot's fate. They will likely draft him or trade down 1-2 spots if they prefer someone such as Miller or a Thompson Twin. Jazz need to find a way to end up in the top 4 after the lottery balls if they want to sniff him. They could potentially move up with the picks in their warchest but their current draft slots are obviously outside the top 10 which is going to make it really difficult. Moving up to the #7 range for someone like Whitmore might be the best they can do. I'm still hoping for a Thompson twin but it's not looking good at the moment.
It goes without saying, at least for me, all these recent wins after the All Star Break just seem a bit hollow considering most of the players on this squad won't be here long term.
Since you guys are talking about Amari Bailey count me as another who would take a pass on him. He's a skinny score first combo guard and has always played that way even in high school. I watched Jared McCain (incoming crafty guard who will be at Duke next season) steal his lunch money in person. Bailey couldn't defend him at all. Maybe I'm just jaded by first impressions from a few years ago but would be underwhelmed if DA were to actually draft him. If they take a project guard hopefully it's one who can create more for his teammates. I'd have more interest in Procter than Bailey.
So you're saying he will be a mid range scorer in the NBA? That's what his role will be? If you see him through that lens it's understandable why you think he's not a good prospect.
I do not see that at all. I see him much more of a connector type on offense. He will not be a mid range scorer, he will be a defense first guy who has like 15% usage. Compared to other prospects his defense and athleticism stands out. If there's one part of his game that won't be a part of his pro game, it's very obviously his mid range IMO.
You seem to be completely unaware of the the word "mostly" and the fact that Bailey's attempts at the rim are way higher compared to other guards than his mid range is compared to other guards. Even compared to NBA the proportion of his attempts at the rim are +20% above league average (for all players not just guards). His mid range proportion is slightly lower than the NBA league average. These are hard facts. Did you know this is the modern shot distribution? I'm guessing you did not because you think a third of your shots from mid range means you're a mid range scorer, when in reality that is the amount the NBA players are shooting. If Amari Bailey is a mid range scorer, than the NBA as a whole is a mid range scoring league.
Coach Ellis
Well-Known Member
I think the potential for Coach Hardy to mold him into that player is actually pretty good. I’d be very interested in him with the Jazz 2nd pick - wherever that lands.
Can someone summarize the argument going on. A lot of text that I don’t feel like reading.
1. No, I'm saying he is reliant on his mid-range jumper in college and that does not bode well for his NBA prospects.
2. Modern NBA shot distribution is not 1/3rd mid-range shots.
Kqwin thinks a mediocre current prospect should be considered on the same level as Kobe Bufkin. I do not.
1. His game, and especially his NBA is not reliant on his scoring It's reliant on his defense and athleticism. If you had questioned his 3 ball, that would be valid. If you question his mid range game, that is only valid if you actually think that will be part of his NBA game.
2. This is a cold hard fact. Amari Bailey's proportion of shots that are 2 pointers but not at the rim is 35.8%. That number in the NBA this season is 36.6%. This is not a debatable point it is fact.