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2024-2025 Tank Race

cowhide said:
Since changing to the lottery format, does anyone know how often the team with the worst record got the first pick. I was hoping that the Jazz would stay at 3. Which lotto ranking has move up to get the number 1 pick? Is the 5th pick the lowest the worst record team can drop?
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Eventually it will happen. We could be the first to do it!
 
Chats thoughts on the worst place finally winning the lottery.

Regression to the Mean – Over a long enough period, the worst team should eventually win. Given that the draft lottery is unpredictable, it's reasonable to expect a worst-record team win within the next few years.

Prediction​

If we assume normal statistical distribution, the worst team is likely to win the No. 1 pick within the next 2-3 drafts (by 2026 or 2027). However, randomness plays a role, so it could happen as early as 2025 or as late as the end of the decade.
 
Brsn said:
Chats thoughts on the worst place finally winning the lottery.

Regression to the Mean – Over a long enough period, the worst team should eventually win. Given that the draft lottery is unpredictable, it's reasonable to expect a worst-record team win within the next few years.

Prediction​

If we assume normal statistical distribution, the worst team is likely to win the No. 1 pick within the next 2-3 drafts (by 2026 or 2027). However, randomness plays a role, so it could happen as early as 2025 or as late as the end of the decade.
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regression to the mean has nothing to do with what we can expect within the next few events (drafts). It's simply the mean that matters.
 
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idiot said:
The trades really helped them get winning players (even though they were "selling"). Plus their rookies have really come into their own lately. And, they don't seem to be purposely sitting guys much these days.
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But mostly because they play in the Eastern conference, which is pathetic. The Jazz could have made the playoffs in the East with their current roster.
 
Bawse Dawg said:
What kind of asset would it take for OKC to just give us next years pick back. Basically a 8+ pick in first round value. Surely we have some young player who we can’t find time for who they would take for that deal?

I want to get Flagg and just go for it next year. I want Hardy to finally be told winning is now your only priority, go for it. One more year of hedging or outright tanking after securing a top asset this year does not appeal to me. If we end up sucking, fine. But everything is so much easier if we just own our pick outright and I’d give something up to make that happen.
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At worst we give them a #9 pick. We have a whole team of guys that you could get with a pick like that. If we hit on the lottery, we keep the pick.
 
The odds are what they are. History/spamming the simulator won’t change that. But I guess you could get a better feel for what 14% feels like from spamming tankathon. People feel that they can win at a slot machine though….
 
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