2024-2025 Tank Race

[Handlogten's Heros]

The odds are concrete, there is no confusion. When I say disaster situation, I am strictly talking about the actual scenario of falling to 7. I’m not talking about being in 4th position. At 4th position, we have that 19% chance of falling to 7 or below. Is that actually a disaster? Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic, but there is a truly significant drop off in quality at that point from my perspective.

I think mentally it would be easier to handle a catastrophic drop like this in 2023. Having had these weird middle years before being super tankers has put a little more pressure on these results for me.

 

[KqWIN]

With all the stuff we have traded for and picked up the last couple years... it is likely that the most important pieces to the rebuild are Prospect X drafted in 2025 and Prospect X drafted in 2026. Not being able to pick from one of the top tiers in this draft would be pretty devastating. All the eggs in the 2026 basket at that point... or another 2+ years of tank.

I think any plan besides tanking in 2026 is basically a lost cause. At maximum there is a 14% chance I would consider not tanking, but even with Flagg I'm starting to heavy lean towards trading Lauri and going for that draft instead. I've been one who is constantly saying the benefits of tanking are overrated, but the alternative path of trying to build forward is not great at all.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think any plan besides tanking in 2026 is basically a lost cause. At maximum there is a 14% chance I would consider not tanking, but even with Flagg I'm starting to heavy lean towards trading Lauri and going for that draft instead. I've been one who is constantly saying the benefits of tanking are overrated, but the alternative path of trying to build forward is not great at all.

I think that is right but I think they keep Lauri. I think I'd sell on Collins/Sexton and of course JC. Don't sign any other functional vets as some of the youngsters are getting more functional and we don't want to tip the scales much.

I wonder if they consider trading Lauri. He does seem pretty bought in to the tank but I wonder if that has an expiration date. I highly doubt they would find something they find satisfactory with how they value him but maybe someone comes strong and they do it.

 

[mhindy]

If we miss on top talent this year Lauri has to be gone this summer because we're now in tank every year until we draft someone you believe can be a star territory.

 

[NUMBERICA]

You just have to play Cody. He kind of ruins everything you want to do offensively.

-48 minutes of Cody
-have Collier shoot as many threes as possible
-let Walker shoot threes to his heart’s content

 

[Flc]

If we miss on top talent this year Lauri has to be gone this summer because we're now in tank every year until we draft someone you believe can be a star territory.

We're tanking next year regardless unless Danny thinks he has enough with the current group + a top draft pick + a top 20 player/potential player that wants to come in free agency or is available for trade. Would we have enough with, say, the current group + pick #4 + Giannis? I don't know.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I think mentally it would be easier to handle a catastrophic drop like this in 2023. Having had these weird middle years before being super tankers has put a little more pressure on these results for me.

I am still beside myself about 2023. I will never be over it.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

-48 minutes of Cody
-have Collier shoot as many threes as possible
-let Walker shoot threes to his heart’s content

It is odd we have had two random games were Kessler got 3's drawn up for him and they just havent done it any other game. I wonder if Hardy lost some kind of bet with Walker for those moments.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It is odd we have had two random games were Kessler got 3's drawn up for him and they just havent done it any other game. I wonder if Hardy lost some kind of bet with Walker for those moments.

Good points. Seems like there’s enough there to use a tanking season to explore and I’m not even joking.

What if he nails them at a 35%+ clip? Great! If he sucks? Great! Either way, it will help answer the question of the viability and allow him to work through any nerves that might be there.

 

[idiot]

The odds are concrete, there is no confusion. When I say disaster situation, I am strictly talking about the actual scenario of falling to 7. I’m not talking about being in 4th position. At 4th position, we have that 19% chance of falling to 7 or below. Is that actually a disaster? Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic, but there is a truly significant drop off in quality at that point from my perspective.

I was not thinking of your argument when I made the post you responded to. I was thinking solely of Leif. He was worried especially about falling out of the top 3, so the post you're responding to here reflects that.

As for whether we fall to 5 or to 7: yeah that's a difference. But, as I mentioned in an even earlier post, there are perhaps ways to think about it that make it seem like not such a big deal (particularly if you don't think who you get at #5 will end up being THE GUY).

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Good points. Seems like there’s enough there to use a tanking season to explore and I’m not even joking.

What if he nails them at a 35%+ clip? Great! If he sucks? Great! Either way, it will help answer the question of the viability and allow him to work through any nerves that might be there.

I hated when he shot htem last year cuz he was playing really mediocre. But hes playing great now, so I dont mind if he takes 1 or 2 a game.

 

[KqWIN]

I think that is right but I think they keep Lauri. I think I'd sell on Collins/Sexton and of course JC. Don't sign any other functional vets as some of the youngsters are getting more functional and we don't want to tip the scales much.

I wonder if they consider trading Lauri. He does seem pretty bought in to the tank but I wonder if that has an expiration date. I highly doubt they would find something they find satisfactory with how they value him but maybe someone comes strong and they do it.

Even if we trade every vet except for Lauri, I think our young guys will have improved enough such that we won't get a top lotto position. But then again, maybe you can live with it as long as you have Flagg. Flagg+Lauri+5-10% at top 4? I guess. I think just clearing out around Flagg is also a sound choice.

Without Flagg, I am 100% trading Lauri. Sucks that we didn't get to build around Lauri or trade him at peak value, but you have to cut losses.