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2024-2025 Tank Race

If we are 4th, we have 12.5% chance at the dream scenario and 19% at a disaster scenario (7th/8th).
How much more of a disaster is picking 7th/8th than 5th? I get that, as things look now, the prospects looks a lot better at 5 than 7. But is 5 likely to be good enough to be a 1st or 2nd option on a winning team (and thus justify this year's tank, you might argue), or are we more likely hoping just to get a solid rotation player at 5?

Do we have a lot of faith that #5 this year is going to be a lot better than Keyonte or Collier? If he's not, then isn't this as easily classified as a disaster? We'll have some good, young players, but none who are game-changing, and all of whom will continue to make tanking in subsequent years harder with their year-to-year development?
 
How much more of a disaster is picking 7th/8th than 5th? I get that, as things look now, the prospects looks a lot better at 5 than 7. But is 5 likely to be good enough to be a 1st or 2nd option on a winning team (and thus justify this year's tank, you might argue), or are we more likely hoping just to get a solid rotation player at 5?

Do we have a lot of faith that #5 this year is going to be a lot better than Keyonte or Collier? If he's not, then isn't this as easily classified as a disaster? We'll have some good, young players, but none who are game-changing, and all of whom will continue to make tanking in subsequent years harder with their year-to-year development?
From the talk in the draft thread the answer to your question would be that the player taken 5th would be a much better prospect than 7/8th and also a much better prospect than keyonte/collier.

Everyone in that thread seems to be in agreement (which is not typical or easy). There is strong consensus top 5. (I have no clue though personally. I dont watch college basketball other than my favorite team)
 
How much more of a disaster is picking 7th/8th than 5th? I get that, as things look now, the prospects looks a lot better at 5 than 7. But is 5 likely to be good enough to be a 1st or 2nd option on a winning team (and thus justify this year's tank, you might argue), or are we more likely hoping just to get a solid rotation player at 5?

Do we have a lot of faith that #5 this year is going to be a lot better than Keyonte or Collier? If he's not, then isn't this as easily classified as a disaster? We'll have some good, young players, but none who are game-changing, and all of whom will continue to make tanking in subsequent years harder with their year-to-year development?

Draft is unpredictable of course, but looking at the prospects this year I think the quality of prospects drops off a cliff after 6. I think any of the top 6 guys you would consider to be on par or maybe even better than their respective positions compared to a normal year. For example, Flagg is a better #1 than typical and whoever is at #6 is better than a typical #6. Me personally, I think the 7th best prospect (haven't decided who) is more like someone you'd expect late lotto in a normal year. There is, of course, no true consensus on how the prospects are ranked so some might see that drop off at #5, #7, or not at all.

You can't guarantee anything, sometimes (often) less good prospects turn out to be better NBA players, but if we're just looking at the quality of prospects it would be a disaster to drop to 7th IMO.

Realistically, I think the only thing that justifies the tank is if it was better than the other options. Another year of half and half would have driven me crazy and I don't think we would have gained anything. The reported plan of going would have been truly catastrophic for the franchise and set us back a decade...so the tank is pretty much justified no matter what in my eyes. The problem with the current NBA is that even if you lower the incentive for tanking, there is not much incentive for winning either.
 
Ok, up until now, I've decided to be someone who wasn't going to worry about the tank race, and I've managed to do that. But I'm genuinely worried now, and I hate that my efforts are diverted this way.

End tanking, please.
Its so stupid to feel conflicted about pounding the Lebron and Luka Lakers. Like I should be basking in the glow of that victory last night but instead its a delicious bowl of punch with a giant floating turd in it.
 
Looks like we are in a 3 team race with NOP and CHO for 2-4. NOP is absolutely pathetic, can't count on them to do anything....though their fans would probably be the same for us. CHO does play in the East, but I expect that they put Lamelo on ice for the rest of the year.
If you gave me 3rd right now I'd take it without hesitation. NOP can be frisky with Alvarado/CJ/Trey/Zion but they have very few tank games. Charlotte I have a little faith in because they are dumb and have some talent in the east.

We play both of them before the end of the season. I recommend a starting lineup of Taylor Hendricks, David Locke, Cody Williams, Bronny James, John Lucas 3. There is no amount of grimy that should be beneath us. Like I might have Will challenge calls that went in our favor.
 
Draft is unpredictable of course, but looking at the prospects this year I think the quality of prospects drops off a cliff after 6. I think any of the top 6 guys you would consider to be on par or maybe even better than their respective positions compared to a normal year. For example, Flagg is a better #1 than typical and whoever is at #6 is better than a typical #6. Me personally, I think the 7th best prospect (haven't decided who) is more like someone you'd expect late lotto in a normal year. There is, of course, no true consensus on how the prospects are ranked so some might see that drop off at #5, #7, or not at all.

You can't guarantee anything, sometimes (often) less good prospects turn out to be better NBA players, but if we're just looking at the quality of prospects it would be a disaster to drop to 7th IMO.

Realistically, I think the only thing that justifies the tank is if it was better than the other options. Another year of half and half would have driven me crazy and I don't think we would have gained anything. The reported plan of going would have been truly catastrophic for the franchise and set us back a decade...so the tank is pretty much justified no matter what in my eyes. The problem with the current NBA is that even if you lower the incentive for tanking, there is not much incentive for winning either.
I really don't like many of the prospects between 7-20ish nearly as much as the top 5 and Tre.

Put it this way. If we landed 7 I'd be inclined to send 2+ firsts to move to 3 or 4. I doubt that any team would take it.
 
With all the stuff we have traded for and picked up the last couple years... it is likely that the most important pieces to the rebuild are Prospect X drafted in 2025 and Prospect X drafted in 2026. Not being able to pick from one of the top tiers in this draft would be pretty devastating. All the eggs in the 2026 basket at that point... or another 2+ years of tank.
 
I've worried before that sometimes we don't understand lottery odds very well. Today on Locked on Jazz, Leif Thulein gave at least two statements that lead to misunderstanding:

- "... once the odds reach 4th, they drop precipitously" & "once you reach 4th, you are in a scary position"
- then he goes on to talk about how top 3 lotto positions have a 52% chance of drafting top 4. While holding that thought he says, 50% isn't a guarantee you're drafting top 3, and then proceeds to talk like the odds for drafting top 3 (he somehow slid from talking about top 4 to top 3 without noticing) with a bottom 3 finish are 52%. He then goes on to imply that the "franchise altering talent" of Flagg, Harper, and Bailey that can only be had in the top 3 are vital for the Jazz -- that it will have been a kind of waste of the year if we don't draft top 3.

Why is he wrong?:

A bottom-3 finish only gives you 40% (not 52%) of drafting top 3. It's more likely than not (no matter where we finish, that we won't get franchise altering talent, even if we agree with Leif that Flagg, Harper, and Bailey all possess it).

Odds for finishing 4th are not much lower for getting the top talent than the odds for finishing 3rd. As I've argued before the difference in odds between 4th and 1st (or 2nd or 3rd) odds only matter mathematically (if you're talking about the number one pick) once every 67 years. If you're worried about the difference in the odds of getting Ace Bailey at number 3, then this difference only matters once every 125 years. Even if you decide that getting any one of the top 4 players is what really matters, the difference in those odds between 4th and 1st come into play mathematically once only every 25 years. So describing being in the 4th position (while being fairly safe, for the time being at least, out of danger of dropping to 5th) as a disaster is either terrible hyperbole or basic misunderstanding of how the lotto odds work.
 
From the talk in the draft thread the answer to your question would be that the player taken 5th would be a much better prospect than 7/8th and also a much better prospect than keyonte/collier.

Everyone in that thread seems to be in agreement (which is not typical or easy). There is strong consensus top 5. (I have no clue though personally. I dont watch college basketball other than my favorite team)
Stuff I'm hearing (though I won't pretend to be any type of expert here) is that this is a 2 and a half player draft if we're looking for clear, great talent. Flagg is it, and Harper looks likely to at least be very good, if not transformative. Bailey has a chance, but the odds of getting him to be a transformative player are much lower. After that, I'm getting the sense that KJ will at least be good, and maybe (and maybe not) Tre or VJ are at that level as well. But expecting someone transformative after 3 is pretty low odds. After 4, 5, or 6, you're just hoping that whoever you pick develops into a good, solid player. Even after pick 2, a good solid player may be all you can really expect.
 
I've worried before that sometimes we don't understand lottery odds very well. Today on Locked on Jazz, Leif Thulein gave at least two statements that lead to misunderstanding:

- "... once the odds reach 4th, they drop precipitously" & "once you reach 4th, you are in a scary position"
- then he goes on to talk about how top 3 lotto positions have a 52% chance of drafting top 4. While holding that thought he says, 50% isn't a guarantee you're drafting top 3, and then proceeds to talk like the odds for drafting top 3 (he somehow slid from talking about top 4 to top 3 without noticing) with a bottom 3 finish are 52%. He then goes on to imply that the "franchise altering talent" of Flagg, Harper, and Bailey that can only be had in the top 3 are vital for the Jazz -- that it will have been a kind of waste of the year if we don't draft top 3.

Why is he wrong?:

A bottom-3 finish only gives you 40% (not 52%) of drafting top 3. It's more likely than not (no matter where we finish, that we won't get franchise altering talent, even if we agree with Leif that Flagg, Harper, and Bailey all possess it).

Odds for finishing 4th are not much lower for getting the top talent than the odds for finishing 3rd. As I've argued before the difference in odds between 4th and 1st (or 2nd or 3rd) odds only matter mathematically (if you're talking about the number one pick) once every 67 years. If you're worried about the difference in the odds of getting Ace Bailey at number 3, then this difference only matters once every 125 years. Even if you decide that getting any one of the top 4 players is what really matters, the difference in those odds between 4th and 1st come into play mathematically once only every 25 years. So describing being in the 4th position (while being fairly safe, for the time being at least, out of danger of dropping to 5th) as a disaster is either terrible hyperbole or basic misunderstanding of how the lotto odds work.
I think there are those three guys that have some obvious star appeal. Then I think the next 3 are guys that you can make a case for having star appeal but a pretty decent floor as well. After that its a grab bag of "this guy is something maybe?" and "this guy is likely a decent role player if things line up okay but not a super high upside guy". Will there be some gems... sure.

No matter where we land and no matter what the logic behind the math says we should expect... we will still be emotionally devastated if we slid to 7, disappointed if we were 5/6...
 
I think what I'm going to do is go put a $200-300 on the worst potential outcomes for the Jazz no matter where we land. If it hits at least I made some money. If not who cares about money cuz we back.
 
I've worried before that sometimes we don't understand lottery odds very well. Today on Locked on Jazz, Leif Thulein gave at least two statements that lead to misunderstanding:

- "... once the odds reach 4th, they drop precipitously" & "once you reach 4th, you are in a scary position"
- then he goes on to talk about how top 3 lotto positions have a 52% chance of drafting top 4. While holding that thought he says, 50% isn't a guarantee you're drafting top 3, and then proceeds to talk like the odds for drafting top 3 (he somehow slid from talking about top 4 to top 3 without noticing) with a bottom 3 finish are 52%. He then goes on to imply that the "franchise altering talent" of Flagg, Harper, and Bailey that can only be had in the top 3 are vital for the Jazz -- that it will have been a kind of waste of the year if we don't draft top 3.

Why is he wrong?:

A bottom-3 finish only gives you 40% (not 52%) of drafting top 3. It's more likely than not (no matter where we finish, that we won't get franchise altering talent, even if we agree with Leif that Flagg, Harper, and Bailey all possess it).

Odds for finishing 4th are not much lower for getting the top talent than the odds for finishing 3rd. As I've argued before the difference in odds between 4th and 1st (or 2nd or 3rd) odds only matter mathematically (if you're talking about the number one pick) once every 67 years. If you're worried about the difference in the odds of getting Ace Bailey at number 3, then this difference only matters once every 125 years. Even if you decide that getting any one of the top 4 players is what really matters, the difference in those odds between 4th and 1st come into play mathematically once only every 25 years. So describing being in the 4th position (while being fairly safe, for the time being at least, out of danger of dropping to 5th) as a disaster is either terrible hyperbole or basic misunderstanding of how the lotto odds work.

The odds are concrete, there is no confusion. When I say disaster situation, I am strictly talking about the actual scenario of falling to 7. I’m not talking about being in 4th position. At 4th position, we have that 19% chance of falling to 7 or below. Is that actually a disaster? Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic, but there is a truly significant drop off in quality at that point from my perspective.
 
The odds are concrete, there is no confusion. When I say disaster situation, I am strictly talking about the actual scenario of falling to 7. I’m not talking about being in 4th position. At 4th position, we have that 19% chance of falling to 7 or below. Is that actually a disaster? Perhaps that’s a bit hyperbolic, but there is a truly significant drop off in quality at that point from my perspective.
I think mentally it would be easier to handle a catastrophic drop like this in 2023. Having had these weird middle years before being super tankers has put a little more pressure on these results for me.
 
With all the stuff we have traded for and picked up the last couple years... it is likely that the most important pieces to the rebuild are Prospect X drafted in 2025 and Prospect X drafted in 2026. Not being able to pick from one of the top tiers in this draft would be pretty devastating. All the eggs in the 2026 basket at that point... or another 2+ years of tank.

I think any plan besides tanking in 2026 is basically a lost cause. At maximum there is a 14% chance I would consider not tanking, but even with Flagg I'm starting to heavy lean towards trading Lauri and going for that draft instead. I've been one who is constantly saying the benefits of tanking are overrated, but the alternative path of trying to build forward is not great at all.
 
I think any plan besides tanking in 2026 is basically a lost cause. At maximum there is a 14% chance I would consider not tanking, but even with Flagg I'm starting to heavy lean towards trading Lauri and going for that draft instead. I've been one who is constantly saying the benefits of tanking are overrated, but the alternative path of trying to build forward is not great at all.
I think that is right but I think they keep Lauri. I think I'd sell on Collins/Sexton and of course JC. Don't sign any other functional vets as some of the youngsters are getting more functional and we don't want to tip the scales much.

I wonder if they consider trading Lauri. He does seem pretty bought in to the tank but I wonder if that has an expiration date. I highly doubt they would find something they find satisfactory with how they value him but maybe someone comes strong and they do it.
 
If we miss on top talent this year Lauri has to be gone this summer because we're now in tank every year until we draft someone you believe can be a star territory.
 
If we miss on top talent this year Lauri has to be gone this summer because we're now in tank every year until we draft someone you believe can be a star territory.
We're tanking next year regardless unless Danny thinks he has enough with the current group + a top draft pick + a top 20 player/potential player that wants to come in free agency or is available for trade. Would we have enough with, say, the current group + pick #4 + Giannis? I don't know.
 
-48 minutes of Cody
-have Collier shoot as many threes as possible
-let Walker shoot threes to his heart’s content
It is odd we have had two random games were Kessler got 3's drawn up for him and they just havent done it any other game. I wonder if Hardy lost some kind of bet with Walker for those moments.
 
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