POR is only 4 games out, the could honestly make it in. I think PHO has a better shot in a one game series vs MIN, but POR has been great lately and they have a chaotic style that could upset anyone on a given night.
2024-2025 Tank Race
- Thread starter SoberasHotRod
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POR is only 4 games out, the could honestly make it in. I think PHO has a better shot in a one game series vs MIN, but POR has been great lately and they have a chaotic style that could upset anyone on a given night.
Just for reference on the difference in odds of 2nd worst vs 5th worst for what I am referring to in this post
Flagg - 3.5% difference
Harper or Flagg - 6.4% difference
Top 6 pick - 36% difference
They dont have to hit top 4. Its top 6 protected, so staying where they are right now if no one jumps them would also save their pick.
If they drop to 5th worst it improves their odds of keeping the pick dramatically though.
How do they have to hit top-4 to keep their pick? If they hit 5th or 6th, they still keep their pick, don't they (top 6 protected)?
If they finish 5th in standings, they have 21.8% of hitting 5th or 6th in the lotto (in addition to their odds of hitting top 4). If they finish 6th worst, then they have an 8.6% chance of hitting 6th in the lotto.
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POR will actually try which is more than I can say for PHO. I don't think anyone on that team wants to extend the season. We just gotta hope Minny ends up in 9 and then loses in the second play in game imo or that they end up 7/8 and lose to the Kings somehow.
Basically I think we are hosed. Minny has a cupcake schedule to end the season. I think we have an 90%+ chance that pick is like 17-20 instead of 14
Not to single you out, because I think you're a good poster and I've seen this type of argument from many other people, but I just can't get behind this kind of rhetoric about "massive effects."
I just want to hear someone who uses this kind of phrasing/thinking to use real numbers to try to explain how this difference (between 1 & 4, for example) is "massive." I'm fully prepared to respond with numbers as to why the effects are not "massive."
I am dumb
They don't have to get into the top 4 in order to get a 5th or 6th post-lottery draft slot (if they finish 5th or 6th pre-lottery). It's only if they finish 7th pre-lotto that they can only keep their pick if they move up to 1-4 in the lotto.
But they have plenty of possibility (given the standings now) to finish with a 5th or 6th (or maybe even 4th in a highly unlikely situation), so they're not at all locked out from a 5th or 6th post-lotto outcome yet.
See above
Yeah, didn't see that until after I had posted -- sorry.
I think the point (at least for me) is that just saying "best odds" is not a good justification for then moving to "massive effects." The difference between best and 2nd best odds is not always "massive." And I'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where the difference is best labeled "small."
I'd argue that this is the wrong way to see it.
The difference of 3.5% is the same whether it's 1% vs 4.5%, 76% vs 79.5%, or 10.5% vs. 14%. Having the odds go your way with just a 3.5% better chance is not nothing (and thus we're still tanking), but it's simply a small difference and is far more likely than not to NOT be the decisive factor in the ultimate results.