What's new
By:

2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

stitches said:
I just don't know how to project him in the league. I just don't see him as an explosive athlete and I don't see him as having the size and length to be great in the NBA. This is where him and Castle diverge significantly... well... there and in the shooting. But players have shown they can improve shooting in the league. Players do not gain 5 inches of wingspan and vertical... he's a below the rim athlete... he's short AND SMALL... especially if you are not going to be playing him at PG. That's why I've been asking... give me a realistic high end outcome(like 75-80th percentile)... what would he look like? What would his role be? Give me a player with similar physical and athletic tools and skills that was more than a shooting specialist with limited use and role.
Click to expand...
I think Shep is athletic though. I think he has really elite feel/anticipation. Its the only explanation for his defensive playmaking when you consider his size. He played mostly like a game manager type point guard at Kentucky which is what kind of points me towards McConnell and the Jones brothers... but he also had just bananas shooting numbers. He also had a couple moments in the season where his team needed him to be more aggressive and he had big games. One of the many impressive things about him ant Rob were they played to win and just understood what they were good at and what the team wanted. It was really impressive how unselfish those two were.

I dinged Shep pretty hard for the tourney game. He is not a perfect prospect by any means but when your coach is already kinda iffy on Xs and Os and then you find out he was on his way out... it kinda makes sense they weren't prepared for what happened.

I think Shep is basically a lock to be one of the 7-8 best players in this draft. If a team thinks Castle, Holland, Topic, etc. have more star potential I understand but I think those guys have less of a chance to be a top 7ish player than Shep. Not a comp but guys like Podz that just get it done in spite of having not the best tools is encouraging.
 
KqWIN said:
FVV and Mike Conley would be the two that most represent a high outcome IMO. Now, you can rip apart the comparison because no comparison is perfect, Shep is better/worse than at different things for those guys....but the overall level is how I see it. Makes 1-2 all star games, does so by being a great PnR player....no necessarily an élite 1 on 1 creator. Defensively is undersized, but finds a way to add value despite obvious flaws.
Click to expand...
Yeah... I floated around the Conley/George Hill comp a bit earlier and wondered if he can be some version of those(although Hill is both bigger and longer)... So you see him as a PG (on-ball) guard too?
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think Shep is athletic though. I think he has really elite feel/anticipation. Its the only explanation for his defensive playmaking when you consider his size. He played mostly like a game manager type point guard at Kentucky which is what kind of points me towards McConnell and the Jones brothers... but he also had just bananas shooting numbers. He also had a couple moments in the season where his team needed him to be more aggressive and he had big games. One of the many impressive things about him ant Rob were they played to win and just understood what they were good at and what the team wanted. It was really impressive how unselfish those two were.

I dinged Shep pretty hard for the tourney game. He is not a perfect prospect by any means but when your coach is already kinda iffy on Xs and Os and then you find out he was on his way out... it kinda makes sense they weren't prepared for what happened.

I think Shep is basically a lock to be one of the 7-8 best players in this draft. If a team thinks Castle, Holland, Topic, etc. have more star potential I understand but I think those guys have less of a chance to be a top 7ish player than Shep. Not a comp but guys like Podz that just get it done in spite of having not the best tools is encouraging.
Click to expand...

I won't quibble too much with someone if they see an easier star path for someone else bc of the physical attributes. I have Holland really high just based on physical attributes. I also think the safety of Shep counts for something and I also don't think we should discount his star potential. Not every all star guard is built like Shai. Sometimes they're the size/athleticism of Conley, CP3, Lowry, FVV, Curry, Brunson, Garland, Trae ect. But like you said, Shep is athletic and impressive physically in his own right.

I am a believer that it's more important to do the athletic things than appear "athletic". Like a block is a block whether it's explosive with length or fundamentally sound like Shep. Shep is A+ at all those things except the amount of dunks he gets....but then again his percentage at the hoop was great. After the Taylor debacle last year I'm not sure if it's better or worse to be able to finish with a dunk lmao.
 
stitches said:
Yeah... I floated around the Conley/George Hill comp a bit earlier and wondered if he can be some version of those(although Hill is both bigger and longer)... So you see him as a PG (on-ball) guard too?
Click to expand...
Oh I have no doubt he is a point guard. I think because he is such a good shooter he can play with another primary creator perfectly.

I think he is the traditional point guard though. Setting others up and running some actions for himself. Is he going to struggle if he is a primary perimeter creator is the question... and I think it is yes (just like it is with most of the guys in this draft). I don't think he is the new age Kyrie style of point guard. I don't think its a bad thing. I think he can do really well in a medium usage role and allow a lot of oxygen for others.

I worry more on defense with Shep. He's small. He makes plays at an unreal elite level BUT he also got targeted a bit and is a bit spacey off ball... and obviously if he is gambling this much he will get taken advantage of at times. I think ultimately the good and bad will even out and he will be an above average/good defender... which is saying a lot for a guy his size.
 
stitches said:
Yeah... I floated around the Conley/George Hill comp a bit earlier and wondered if he can be some version of those(although Hill is both bigger and longer)... So you see him as a PG (on-ball) guard too?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm sure you can find earlier posts of mine echoing some of the same concerns I had with you. But the deeper dive I did on him made me much more confident that he could/should be more of an on ball player. If I looked deeper and it turned out that he was terrible with higher usage, never was in a high usage role at all, or had the large majority of his shots assisted I would have a different opinion on him.
 
KqWIN said:
I won't quibble too much with someone if they see an easier star path for someone else bc of the physical attributes. I have Holland really high just based on physical attributes. I also think the safety of Shep counts for something and I also don't think we should discount his star potential. Not every all star guard is built like Shai. Sometimes they're the size/athleticism of Conley, CP3, Lowry, FVV, Curry, Brunson, Garland, Trae ect. But like you said, Shep is athletic and impressive physically in his own right.

I am a believer that it's more important to do the athletic things than appear "athletic". Like a block is a block whether it's explosive with length or fundamentally sound like Shep. Shep is A+ at all those things except the amount of dunks he gets....but then again his percentage at the hoop was great. After the Taylor debacle last year I'm not sure if it's better or worse to be able to finish with a dunk lmao.
Click to expand...
Yeah we have talked about this and I think we are basically on the same page with "high floor actually is an indicator of star potential" type of argument.

Its probably because of the pasty skin, size, and old school haircut but he just reminds me of Stock, Mark Price, and the traditional pgs I grew up with. I think Price was faster and more slippery than Shep, Stock a better passer, but I don't think that player type would be bad in today's nba.

I think on an nba big board that has no team attached to it I would have Shep higher than Castle. Its hard for me to detach from my Jazzcentric way of thinking and the fit with Castle/Key theoretically is soooo juicy that I have him higher. But after hearing DA kind of not crown Key which is surprising given the narrative most of the year and refreshing.... I think they could give BPA approach regardless of fit. Which I know is something you basically agree with. I feel like we might consider Shep a bit more seriously.

I can see measurements, fit, and such pushing Shep to 7-8 range and I'd be so excited to have him.
 
KqWIN said:
Yeah, I'm sure you can find earlier posts of mine echoing some of the same concerns I had with you. But the deeper dive I did on him made me much more confident that he could/should be more of an on ball player. If I looked deeper and it turned out that he was terrible with higher usage, never was in a high usage role at all, or had the large majority of his shots assisted I would have a different opinion on him.
Click to expand...
One thing I like on prospects is when you look closer and they look better the longer you look. Not sure if its confirmation bias or some real thing... but Shep is definitely one of those guys I personally like more the more I watch.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
Dillon Jones is 4th in ppg, 5th in FTA, 3rd in RPG, 4th in APG, and 4th in SPG.

Dillon Jones only shoots 32.4% from 3, but shoots 85.7% from the line.
Click to expand...
There will be one or two upperclassmen I will feel dumb about not having higher in this draft. Trying to figure out which ones is hard.
 
It's hard not to look ahead to the '25 draft. Dylan Harper is probably a better PG prospect than anyone in this class. Flagg and Bailey are better than any wing prospects in this class. I think even Edgecombe would be a #1 or #2 guy in this class. Then there's several other guys, like Tre Johnson and Nolan Traore who are high-level prospects as well.

If we're being honest, tanking next season is a low-hanging-fruit opportunity to acquire All Star-level prospects on rookie deals. That's going to be hard to pass up.
 
Last edited:
Handlogten's Heros said:
There will be one or two upperclassmen I will feel dumb about not having higher in this draft. Trying to figure out which ones is hard.
Click to expand...

Holmes, Jones, Edey, and Carter were all extremely productive and depending where drafted could be huge steals.

My bet is on Carter as the steal of the draft. I think he has a defined role in the NBA that should translate. He's going to be an absolute pest on defense and was one of the best offensive players in the NCAA this year. His shooting percentages are decent, but look even better when you watch film and see the level of difficulty on some of his shots.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Share this page
Back
Top