Iverson... ? CP3? Conley... Lowry... Kemba?
2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread
- Thread starter Saint Cy of JFC
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Lowry was pushing 200 lbs.
CP3 is an outlier genius. Iverson was outlier for speed/scoring and they are both great examples that even small players with peak skills come up short.
Walker got out of the first round once in his career and would be a player I would never want on my team personally.
Conley has just short of a +7'' wingspan. CP3 + 4'' wingspan. Kemba + 4'' wingspan. Iverson +4'' wingspan.
Should we wait and see how he measures? Is he going to be at the combine?
Yes, if he has a +4 wingspan it would give him a slight bump.
And I do think Dilingham has some outlier talents, but he also has some concerning markers. He's not a tough defender and he isn't good at drawing fouls. You kind of have to have one or the other, if not both, to be a big time small guard.
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If you came out this draft with Kemba at #8 its a win.
If we took a high-end outcome player comp for every player then every draft pick would be a win.
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You said you didn’t want Kemba doe
I dont want him on my team, but a Kemba Walker on a rookie contract would at least be a tradeable asset.
Spaniard
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There are other options at 8, I hope Dilly goes before our pick. I know hes probably quicker and maybe a little better in some ways but he gives me trey burke vibes. Burke was a stud in college. This board gets enamored with tiny guys. I would rather swing for a knecht or cody williams and see how they do.
Examining the Small Guard Crunch and the Value of Positional Size
Fewer small guards are receiving significant playing time in the NBA, and positional size is more valuable than ever. Maxwell examines the "Small Guard Crunch" and recent draft trends!www.noceilingsnba.com
So the methodology on this article is pretty janky (unavoidable), but I still found it to be an interesting read. If anyone has a lot of time, I would recommend a read but would also recommend trying to find your own conclusions. I agree with some of his conclusions, others not so much.
The criteria for "whiff" is fairly strict and means players who did not register a single minute this season. To my count, there are only 6 first rounders that were whiffs since 2019 and that incudes KPJ and Kai Jones. The majority of whiffs are just late second round picks. Big surprise. I guess we can decide on our own how much it matters that a second round pick whiffed. When thinking about Shep and Dillingham.....do we really care about how Kyle Guy and Marcus Zegarowski.....maybe you do.
I was more interested in the "hit" rate than the "whiff" rate. Well. I was most interested in the Allstar+Hit rate. I believe that if you are an all star, that should also count as a "hit". With that in mind, the combine hit + all star rate was:
Under 6-4: 33.3%
6-4 / 6'6: 38.2%
6'7 / 6'9: 39.3%
Over 6'9: 26.3%
Under 6-4 had the highest all star rate FWIW.
I also found the timeline a little suspicious because it cut off right before some really good drafts for smaller guards. Out of curiosity, I went back just one more season and included 2018. Here is the hit+all star rate:
Under 6-4: 40.5%
6'4 / 6'6: 40.5.%
6'7 / 6'9: 36.8%
Over 6'9: 35.4%
I felt like the author was coming on a little too strong with his conclusions. Like if one more player met a different criteria (which was blurry to begin with) he would have had a whole different conclusion using the same logic. If he went back one more year and/or considered "hits" to be inclusive of the all stars, he also would have come to a different conclusion. And again, I think the inclusion of second round picks kind of mucks this all up. One year of late second rounders being tilted towards a certain group will throw it off.
Going back one year got me thinking....small guys are wayyyy over represented on the all star teams. They have the most all stars despite having the smallest pool of players. The all star rate for under 6'4 is 5/42. The all star rate for all players 6'4-6'9 is 7/232. Short kings represent about 12.5% of the entire pool of draftees but 35.7% of the all stars. This is without going back to 2017 and adding two more all stars with Fox and Mitchell. I didn't go through that entire draft, but one can assume this only goes more in favor of our glorious short kings. The are not many short kings drafted high up in the draft to begin with, so I don't want to get too ahead of myself in SSS theater.....but I feel like the all star rate is significant. Going back 10 years, 5 of 12 lottery picks that were under 6'4 became all stars.
If you're trying to get an all star in the lottery, short prospects are not a bad bet. If you're looking for any player drafted any spot that is a "hit"....I'm not sure the data is significant enough for any of the height groups to be considered favorable or unfavorable.
That's kind of the point of drafting BPA. If the only way a prospect can provide value to a franchise is in hypothetical NBA finals series, you might be onto something. But the NBA is much more fluid than that. You are not beholden to the players you draft forever, they can be moved. Chances are there will be a lot of moving parts in order to win a title.