2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

[Elizah Huge]

I wonder which team would rather own the rights to 1-4 in 2027…

Team A who doesn’t own anything related to the picks

Or

Team B who owns 5-30 in 2027

Really can’t decide

 

[whatthe]

It’s really not any different than a protected pick the other way IMO. Like I said, the Jazz traded for a pick with a certain chance they don’t get it. I wouldn’t call it NBA crypto, I would just call it a protected pic.

You’re paying for a certain set of outcomes. When you buy/sell a certain outcome, it does not really matter who owns the other outcomes.

Ok yeah I can see it as a low cost move for another team if they don't value the 2nd rounder doing it. But then again the Jazz are near the front of the line on the second round. I don't think the Lakers would want Bronny on a first. Also, it becomes kind of joke for another team trade - they would have to believe that it would happen in 2027 and they are going have it exercised. I only see OKC doing something so slow and calculated. Maybe Philly or Memphis.

But I could see the Jazz trading Clarkson to remove the protections because it doubles the value of the pick from the Jazz point of view even though it is small chance, it wholly and completely an unprotected undebatably the most valuable draft capital. But another team would calculate that it is 1 to 10% chance happening and would not want to lose their six man for no value - I don't see the Lakers easily convincing other teams as we could be convinced

 

[KqWIN]

There is an obvious reason. Not sure why you’re being so weird about this. It solidifies the asset not only for us but as a trade asset going forward.

I don’t see how you get extra value for solidifying or completing the asset. Would you give up better odds in order to have worse odds from the Lakers? I would not. There is no bonus multiplier for having 100% of the outcomes.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I don’t see how you get extra value for solidifying or completing the asset. Would you give up better odds in order to have worse odds from the Lakers? I would not. There is no bonus multiplier for having 100% of the outcomes.

What do you mean better odds?

 

[whatthe]

I don’t see how you get extra value for solidifying or completing the asset. Would you give up better odds in order to have worse odds from the Lakers? I would not. There is no bonus multiplier for having 100% of the outcomes.

Unprotected is the king of all draft assets

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It’s really not any different than a protected pick the other way IMO. Like I said, the Jazz traded for a pick with a certain chance they don’t get it. I wouldn’t call it NBA crypto, I would just call it a protected pic.

You’re paying for a certain set of outcomes. When you buy/sell a certain outcome, it does not really matter who owns the other outcomes.

Its a hedge for us (or whoever we trade it to) whereas its a highly speculative transaction for others. It makes a lot of sense for us to hedge against the asset we already have.

 

[KqWIN]

What do you mean better odds?

If the Lakers odds are more valuable to the Jazz because the Jazz have the other outcomes, it must mean you would accept worse odds at 1-4 due to the desire of having all Lakers outcomes.

For example, let’s say we’re pre lottery in 2027. The Lakers are in the lottery and the Clippers are one position ahead of them. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at 1-4 or the Clippers lotto chances at 1-4?

Every team would rather have Lakers 5-30 and Clippers 1-4 over Lakers 1-30.

 

[KqWIN]

Its a hedge for us (or whoever we trade it to) whereas its a highly speculative transaction for others. It makes a lot of sense for us to hedge against the asset we already have.

I don’t think the hedge matters. What matters is the expected value, and that is the same across the board. It’s really just the same as any other protected pick imo.

 

[Elizah Huge]

If the Lakers odds are more valuable to the Jazz because the Jazz have the other outcomes, it must mean you would accept worse odds at 1-4 due to the desire of having all Lakers outcomes.

For example, let’s say we’re pre lottery in 2027. The Lakers are in the lottery and the Clippers are one position ahead of them. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at 1-4 or the Clippers lotto chances at 1-4?

Every team would rather have Lakers 5-30 and Clippers 1-4 over Lakers 1-30.

That’s pre-lottery in 2027 not sure how that is relevant to 2024 right now?

If we knew the exact order in 2027 your example would make sense but we don’t.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t think the hedge matters. What matters is the expected value, and that is the same across the board. It’s really just the same as any other protected pick imo.

The hedge matters. That's why hedges exist is to protect the value of a bigger asset against an unlikely event that may cause it to lose value. You are a GM trading for that pick and then it hits top 4 you feel real dumb... you don't think a GM acquiring that is going to think about that? Also the hedge would figure into the expected value.

 

[KqWIN]

That’s pre-lottery in 2027 not sure how that is relevant to 2024 right now?

Because it outlines the value equation. If you think the Lakers pick is more valuable because we have the rest of the outcomes, you just be willing to take worse outcomes at the “benefit” of solidifying the asset. It’s difficult to name something that has slightly more chances at hitting top 4 right now, but go ahead and come up with any team you want. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at top 4 or whatever you deem to be slightly more likely at top 4?

 

[Elizah Huge]

Because it outlines the value equation. If you think the Lakers pick is more valuable because we have the rest of the outcomes, you just be willing to take worse outcomes at the “benefit” of solidifying the asset. It’s difficult to name something that has slightly more chances at hitting top 4 right now, but go ahead and come up with any team you want. Would you rather have the Lakers chances at top 4 or whatever you deem to be slightly more likely at top 4?

The cost for the Lakers 1-4 for us would be lower than an unprotected first from anyone else you think is similar value. For being so smart of a guy I’m not sure how you’re whiffing this badly on this one.

Nobody just trades for 1-4 of a pick. They do trade to take protections off a pick they already own though. We’ve seen it happen.