It is completely arbitrary. For example, I was told I was overthinking it because I didn't like Tre's defense. But with Ace it's ok to mention defense. There is no universal thing that decides what counts as overthinking and what does not. I could very easily dismiss all of this context you put around his numbers as overthinking it because there is no rule. By adding color and context you are actually making an argument. Dismissing context and color as "overthinking" is not an argument. When you dismiss actual arguments due to overthinking, you are policing the way people think and deciding for them what matters. Some people care about 18 and 7. Some people care about more things, some people care about even less things. There are some people who dismissed Ace/Harper because "how can he and Harper be so good if their team sucked". That has less thinking involved than yourself, but it isn't necessarily more correct is it? Nobody gets to draw the line of what is considered overthinking and what is not.
Ace is not a prospect that passed my initial sniff test, but the harder I thought about it the more optimistic I got about him. If I thought less, I would have a different opinion than you. What you're really saying is that I must have thought the way you thought.