Ace Bailey ROY watch

[Tremendous Upside]

FTR is also a product of shot selection. Less contested attempts = Less fouls drawn. There is a direct and obvious correlation.

Indeed. That's why the main thing is this:

If you're going to be a jump shooter who avoids contact, you need to be ABSOLUTELY ELITE at what you do. Prime Klay was.

Ace is nowhere near that level. He's a kid who avoids contact, takes a ton of uncontested shots because defenses don't care about him (and because he really likes to shoot), yet is still only hitting at meh percentages. Together with constant rookie mistakes on defense, that makes you a pretty bad NBA player, which he is at this point.

Obviously he'll get better and there's some tremendous upside there, but these are trends that shouldn't be ignored as we watch him get more experience.

 

[HermanG]

Indeed. That's why the main thing is this:

If you're going to be a jump shooter who avoids contact, you need to be ABSOLUTELY ELITE at what you do. Prime Klay was.

Ace is nowhere near that level. He's a kid who avoids contact, takes a ton of uncontested shots because defenses don't care about him (and because he really likes to shoot), yet is still only hitting at meh percentages. Together with constant rookie mistakes on defense, that makes you a pretty bad NBA player, which he is at this point.

Obviously he'll get better and there's some tremendous upside there, but these are trends that shouldn't be ignored as we watch him get more experience.

Maybe at this point we should be happy he DOESNT take too many bad shots instead of focusing on him not being able to draw fouls?

Klay wasnt thrown there as a comp and Ace will never turn into "taller Klay". But he can turn into something between DFS and Lauri, if he turns out to be a better defender than the latter (he is certainly gonna end up being way better offensively than DFS).

Btw DFS has also had multiple sub 10% FTR seasons and Lauri wasnt much of a free thrown merchant either before his AS season. Lauri had much better FTR early in his career than Ace has, but that was a product of him wanting to dunk over people whenever he had the chance.

 

[fishonjazz]

You just named 3 players with significantly higher free throw rates than Ace in their rookie year. Do you realize that horrible arguments work against your case, not for it? And yes, free throw rate, not raw free throw attempts, is the correct way to understand the concern.

Is 0.8 significantly higher than Ace?

Sent from my OPD2203 using Tapatalk

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

FTR is also a product of shot selection. Less contested attempts = Less fouls drawn. There is a direct and obvious correlation.

Klay Thompson 2017-2018 FTR < Ace current FTR. Historically bad my ***.

Ace's shot diet is uncontested dunks and jump shots, which gets you to near zero FTR land. He needs more strenght and better handles to start attacking crowded lanes or on-ball defenders. I hope Hardy focuses on Ace's defense at this point and not on his abitlity to draw fouls.

Ok, you found a player with a FTR that is .03 lower, which kind of proves me point that it's a historically low number. Is it the lowest number in the history of basketball? No, but I would venture to guess if you factored in the number of dunks it might be

And it also proves me point that I think Ace can still be a great role player that way. He would do it in a different way than Klay with less shooting and more offball rim pressure and athletic playmaking.

But Ace isn't the level of shooter Klay is, so it has to be a bit higher. There isn't an reason he can't be at least around .2 for his career. But the natural feel for drawing contact is not there, so we can't just assume it will happen when there hasn't been a single sign to this point.

And no Ace, shot diet isn't just jumpers and open dunks. He does try, at least once or twice per game, to go into the paint in the half court and finish with a defender between him and the basket. There's moments where I see the play developing and I think to myself "there's no possible way he doesn't get fouled or finish" and he manages to make contact in a way the refs don't seem a foul should be called.

Plus jump shooters are now more likely to draw shooting fouls than ever in NBA history. Refs are very ready to call any contact against a jump shooter.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

People are so defensive of critical exchange over a player are just as annoying as the endlessly critical posters like Tremendous Upside

 

[KqWIN]

Ok, you found a player with a FTR that is .03 lower, which kind of proves me point that it's a historically low number. Is it the lowest number in the history of basketball? No, but I would venture to guess if you factored in the number of dunks it might be

And it also proves me point that I think Ace can still be a great role player that way. He would do it in a different way than Klay with less shooting and more offball rim pressure and athletic playmaking.

But Ace isn't the level of shooter Klay is, so it has to be a bit higher. There isn't an reason he can't be at least around .2 for his career. But the natural feel for drawing contact is not there, so we can't just assume it will happen when there hasn't been a single sign to this point.

And no Ace, shot diet isn't just jumpers and open dunks. He does try, at least once or twice per game, to go into the paint in the half court and finish with a defender between him and the basket. There's moments where I see the play developing and I think to myself "there's no possible way he doesn't get fouled or finish" and he manages to make contact in a way the refs don't seem a foul should be called.

Plus jump shooters are now more likely to draw shooting fouls than ever in NBA history. Refs are very ready to call any contact against a jump shooter.

It’s not a problem. He just needs to shoot it like prime Klay!

 

[bigmike]

People needling at Ace is crazy to me. He's doing great. Only 19. Give him 3 years and we will be drooling.

 

[HermanG]

People are so defensive of critical exchange over a player are just as annoying as the endlessly critical posters like Tremendous Upside

Imagine getting this butthurt when someone posts a name that does nothing but undermines some negative hyperbole.

Guess you were the one leading the charge then.