Are the Jazz going to trade Rudy?

[One Brow]

I mean it's not true that Rudy is the best of the team and it's not true that we dated Houston because of Mitchell ... Rudy is not worth the supermax and not even the max, Davis takes 190 in 5 years, as Rudy can expect more? In attack is limited ..

Again, Davis was paid the maximum he could ask for, and had his paycheck capped artificially. That makes is invalid for comparisons.

 

[green]

Remember the days when Stock and Horney didn't have an agent and negotiated their deals with Larry Miller over Subway Sandwiches during the noon hour? Rudy needs to think about that.

Nope. Millers are billionaires and Stock and Horny aren't. They were taken advantage of. Every player should take every red cent they can get because the owners are taking every red cent they can get. How many times did Larry spend above the cap for those two? How many times did Larry sacrifice money to get them more talent? Not once. So, what did Stockton and Horny get for their loyalty? Nothing.

 

[green]

BINGO. If we lose him the narrative will be that we were cheap. If we sign him, the narrative will be that we are clueless, we overpay, we bid against ourselves, etc.

I haven't heard a single person say the Jazz were cheap for not giving him the supermax. The opposite actually. That Utah can't afford to give a contract out like that to a player like Rudy, who the last 5 mins of the game...can't really take it over and win it for you.

 

[LoPo]

And regarding the issue of PJ Tucker going against Rudy in the playoffs, there really isn't any data to support that. Here are the numbers for each game of both years we faced them in the playoffs:

2018 game 1 vs. Houston:
Jazz lose by 14. Rudy plays 35 minutes and 19 seconds, while Capela plays 35 minutes and 31 seconds. Nene plays 4 minutes

2018 game 2:
Jazz win by 8. Rudy plays 36 minutes and 46 seconds. Capela plays 30 minutes and 59 seconds. Nene plays 4 minutes.

2018 game 3:
Jazz lose by 21. Rudy plays 32 minutes and 11 seconds. Capela plays 30 minutes and 11 seconds. Nene plays 13 minutes and 32 seconds.

2018 game 4:
Jazz lose by 13. Rudy plays 32 minutes and 17 seconds. Capela plays 37 minutes and 5 seconds. Nene plays 10 minutes.

2018 game 5:
Jazz lose by 10. Rudy plays 33 minutes and 55 seconds. Capela plays 31 minutes and 13 seconds. Nene plays 11 minutes and 22 seconds.

2019 game 1:
Jazz lose by 32. Rudy plays 33 minutes and 42 seconds. Capela plays 32 minutes and 23 seconds. Faried plays 15 minutes and 37 seconds.

2019 game 2:
Jazz lose by 20. Rudy plays 31 minutes and 11 seconds. Capela plays 29 minutes and 26 seconds. Faried plays 16 minutes and 56 seconds.

2019 game 3:
Jazz lose by 3. Rudy plays 32 minutes and 57 seconds. Capela plays 33 minutes and 8 seconds. Faried plays 9 minutes and 59 seconds.

2019 game 4:
Jazz win by 16. Rudy plays 23 minutes and 47 seconds. Capela plays 27 minutes and 31 seconds. Faried plays 5 minutes 21 seconds.

2019 game 5:
Jazz lose by 7. Rudy plays 30 minutes and 25 seconds. Capela plays 35 minutes and 53 seconds. Faried plays 2 minutes and 56 seconds. Nene makes an appearance playing 9 minutes 11 seconds.

I believe what's happening is that there's a recency bias here where we saw Houston move Tucker into the 5 spot and we struggled against them for 1-2 games when they did, and this has now colored how we viewed what happened in the 10 post-season games we played against them, when in reality this "Tucker/Gobert" matchup never actually happened.

Good breakdown. So Rudy did better against Capella than I thought. I don't think Rudy shut Capella down by any means, but Rudy is also having to protect the paint.

You are right. I was wrong. Still don't think it matters much in the context that Rudy doesn't dominate offensively in the playoffs, but it does prove that he holds his own on the defensive end.

Good stuff. I stand corrected.

Sent from my SM-G970U using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[homeytennis]

Nope. Millers are billionaires and Stock and Horny aren't. They were taken advantage of. Every player should take every red cent they can get because the owners are taking every red cent they can get. How many times did Larry spend above the cap for those two? How many times did Larry sacrifice money to get them more talent? Not once. So, what did Stockton and Horny get for their loyalty? Nothing.

They are both wealthy men now.

 

[SCS]

Tony Jones said the Jazz won't trade Rudy even if he starts the season without an extension.

 

[infection]

Good breakdown. So Rudy did better against Capella than I thought. I don't think Rudy shut Capella down by any means, but Rudy is also having to protect the paint.

You are right. I was wrong. Still don't think it matters much in the context that Rudy doesn't dominate offensively in the playoffs, but it does prove that he holds his own on the defensive end.

Good stuff. I stand corrected.

Sent from my SM-G970U using JazzFanz mobile app

I don't know that anyone has said he shut Capela down (or that Capela even needs to be shut down), and I'm certain I've never heard someone argue that Rudy dominates offensively in the playoffs. I think the argument that Rudy isn't as valuable to us winning because he doesn't preform in the playoffs is based on limited data that's being misinterpreted. What we're seeing in the regular season is a good template for moving forward with a defensive scheme in the playoffs. However, as you alluded to with Jokic, is that there's a significant exploit and work-around for, and what the league is currently discovering: if you take Rudy away from the basket, the lane is open. There had been arguments that Rudy couldn't defend guys playing from the outside, and he's proved that he can do a pretty good job on these guys when he's afforded that opportunity (him playing against AD when Favors is also on the floor, etc.) Or when he guarded KAT this year. But our defensive strategy has been to filter stuff to the middle and let Gobert clean up the mess. So we got even worse perimeter defenders. This magnifies the issue that when Rudy has to come away from the basket to guard a big guy who shoots threes, then the paint is much more vulnerable. He can try and do both, but it leads to too much space for both a Jokic to shoot threes and too much space in the lane for a Murray. This is a personnel problem. This is why someone like Christian Wood would be a huge boon. You could either have Wood play back and allow Rudy to actual guard the big on the perimeter, or Rudy can stay back. But we don't get this option. Why? Because we have guys that are 6'5'-6'6" playing the four who don't have big/long enough bodies to guard a Jokic, a KAT, an AD, or even a Meyers Leonard. So it forces Rudy out of the paint by default because we don't have the personnel to have any other option. But then our entire system is exploited. I think it's not out of the realm of possibility that we see this and it gets blamed on Rudy.

 

[framer]

I'm not remembering us hemorrhaging. Anyone else remember this? And I'm trying reconcile two different things you're saying between 1) Udoh looked good because there was someone else on the floor backing him up and 2) we were hemorrhaging until Favors or Rudy got back in. Those two ideas don't seem to lineup,

Also, when you say he "never held down the spot solo when he was in," but acknowledge that perhaps he didn't really play with Favors, who was holding down the spot, Jerebko? Niang?

In his final year, Udoh's =/- net per 100 possessions was -9.7.
Last year, Tony Bradley, who was universally reviled, was a -4.4.
Georges Niang is a -6.7.

BTW, last year in NO, Favors was a +9.0

There was a reason that the Jazz did not chase back after a 30 year old Udoh then, and he sure as Hell isn't some sort of solution now. You certainly can't plug him in as a discount replacement to Favors.

 

[framer]

Tony Jones said the Jazz won't trade Rudy even if he starts the season without an extension.

To be fair, I would expect Tony Jones to say and believe this right up until the point that Rudy is actually traded. Not that he Will be traded, but Tony has no special knowledge on this.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

In his final year, Udoh's =/- net per 100 possessions was -9.7.
Last year, Tony Bradley, who was universally reviled, was a -4.4.
Georges Niang is a -6.7.

BTW, last year in NO, Favors was a +9.0

There was a reason that the Jazz did not chase back after a 30 year old Udoh then, and he sure as Hell isn't some sort of solution now. You certainly can't plug him in as a discount replacement to Favors.

Final year he basically only got garbage time. Not trying to defend him but just trying to make sure the data is relevant. The year before that he played much more. He was a -.6 that year.

Favs is definitely better. Udoh wasn't that bad. The value of the Favs contract doesn't bother me if we don't skrimp to save every nickel and dime in other moves... including Rudy's extension.

 

[Getting Traded]

We beat OKC for a lot of reasons. Rudy was the best player in that series. Donovan played well and had some huge games, but that was a defensive series anchored by Gobert.

It is true that Rudy is the entire defense, specifically on defense. But even if we switch schemes, it doesn't mean we'll be good defensively. The Jazz would be a terrible defensive team regardless of what system they play without Rudy.

Getting Favors back just pushed our defense up a couple of notches, so long as he stays healthy.

How much of Epke's defensive stats (which were good in very, very limited minutes) were possible because Favors was on the floor with him? It was a while ago, but I seem to remember that Epke was a complete disaster when put on the floor as the solo big man. He sure as hell wasn't defending effectively 1-5 without Favors. Additionally, Dok can catch a damn lob starting day one and stay on the floor as a lone big, if needed, just because of that.

Favors is an actual NBA player which makes him far more valuable than 4 Udoh-like contracts. Jazz aren't playing 12 deep.

I don't know what games you were watching, but I agree almost totally with Infection about Ekpe. He is an outstanding defender. Not sure if he is a better rim protector than Favors, but certainly on par. When he was in games, we seldom lost leads like we did with Bradley.

 

[Thee Jazz Fan]

First off LoPo, there’s a good chance we don’t make the playoffs without Gobert. Second, with Gobert, and without DM we lose that series, same thing with DM and no Gobert we lose that series. The big quantifier is with out Rudy we probably don’t win enough to make the playoffs. I feel without DM we are still a playoff team.