At the 1/4 Season Mark, How Are We Doing?

[Jingled]

Royce has the worst PER out of any player that gets reasonable minutes, he isn't the defender people think he is. The fact is, this teams gets completely exploited by every backcourt in the league, and Royce in the lineup really makes no difference in that regard. And what he provides on offense just doesn't move the needle much. He can't shoot off the dribble, has to be wide open to make a 3, and is not a great ball handler or passer. He developed great, and would be fine as a limited bench player, but he just doesn't bring a lot to the table.

That isn't to say he is bad, just very limited, and definitely not starting material.

JC's usage rate is extremely high, Royce's usage rate throughout his career has been extremely low and he doesn't need the ball in his hands or shots to be effective, feels like he'd be a perfect fit next to JC off the bench. Joe on the other hand needs the ball to be effective and needs to play the majority of his minutes with Rudy to utilize his pick and roll skills. It just makes so much sense to start Joe and bring Royce off the bench. I know the argument against it is that we need Royce's defense in the starting lineup but our defense has looked great the last two games without him, probably two of our best defensive games of the season.

It feels pointless to even be discussing this because we all know all know Quin is too stubborn to make the change.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

JC's usage rate is extremely high, Royce's usage rate throughout his career has been extremely low and he doesn't need the ball in his hands or shots to be effective, feels like he'd be a perfect fit next to JC off the bench. Joe on the other hand needs the ball to be effective and needs to play the majority of his minutes with Rudy to utilize his pick and roll skills. It just makes so much sense to start Joe and bring Royce off the bench. I know the argument against it is that we need Royce's defense in the starting lineup but our defense has looked great the last two games without him, probably two of our best defensive games of the season.

It feels pointless to even be discussing this because we all know all know Quin is too stubborn to make the change.

Agreed. When Nurkic drove and Joe and Joe was able to stand his ground (Nurk went on his ***), in the 1st qtr, it shows what Joe brings with his size on D.

 

[vegas]

I believe the Jazz are punching below their weight. I think it is up to them, including coaches to achieve a level of desire that moves them back into the competitior conversation. I don't mind them losing, it's the way they are losing. I'm looking for wins like the vintage Spurs groups that rested all the stars and the scrubs dismantled you anyways. That contrasts sharply with us dumping some bunnies recently that I see as lack of desire and focus.

I'm just lukewarm at this point. I need to see something that shows they want it even more than last year to believe things will be different. So far they want it less.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Regarding Royce vs Ingles in the starting lineup, keep in mind we just played two of the worst defenses in the NBA. That said, the starting lineup with Ingles looked really good, and should probably get more time together. Ingles has mostly looked like garbage this year, particularly on defense, but definitely stepped up his defense the last two games. He probably can't keep it up for the whole season. The other issue with Ingles starting is our lineups without Ingles or Conley are rough, we need a playmaker on the court and it's difficult to stagger their minutes if they are both starting.

Royce's rebounding is down this year, which makes him less useful in his role. His steals are way up though. I don't think he's suddenly become a worse rebounder, but most likely Rudy is getting those rebounds. His shooting is down, but likely gets back to his averages over the last few years. My biggest gripe with Royce would be the one or two boneheaded turnovers he makes per game.

The lineups with Royce in them work. They are almost all net positive. Royce is willing to take on the toughest defensive assignment each game while taking the fewest shots. He is a fantastic teammate, and a great role player. Royce is tough, plays hard, is a good rebounder, a decent passer, and an efficient offensive player.

 

[Agent#00]

Rudy + Joe + Mike is probably our best trio. it unlocks everything. DM great if he decides to include Rudy

 

[SoberasHotRod]

So you think his PER is lying? Royce's defense and lack of size at the 3/4 makes up for his limited offense? Royce is starting material? He is a good ball handler and passer? What exactly do you disagree with?

With two small (for NBA standards) players in Conley and Mitchell, w3 need more size in the starting lineup. 6'4" Royce at the 3/3 exacerbates the issue.

I'm not sure PER is a relevant statistic to impact on a winning lineup. Royce is actually a better defend on wings than he is on guards, so I'm not sure how his size is hurting him, especially given his historically good rebounding rates.

 

[infection]

Royce is our third highest player in MPG. He’s behind only Donovan and Rudy, and is only 0.4 MPG behind Rudy. That’s crazy. Last year he was #2.

 

[NAOS]

So you think his PER is lying? Royce's defense and lack of size at the 3/4 makes up for his limited offense? Royce is starting material? He is a good ball handler and passer? What exactly do you disagree with?

With two small (for NBA standards) players in Conley and Mitchell, w3 need more size in the starting lineup. 6'4" Royce at the 3/3 exacerbates the issue.

Royce’s 6’4” plays bigger and faster than whatever Joe’s measurements are.

I think there are several stats that are eye-raising. I’m not overreacting to any one of them. I’m more focused on the full product I see on the court.

I’d be fine with starting Joe. I think that’s clear, right?

 

[TheGoldStandard]

I'm not sure PER is a relevant statistic to impact on a winning lineup. Royce is actually a better defend on wings than he is on guards, so I'm not sure how his size is hurting him, especially given his historically good rebounding rates.

Royce is 317 in Player Impact Rating, -1.7 on D, and a 9 net differential (in a starting lineup).

Joe's PIE is 192, and his off rating is almost 11 points higher than his defensive rating is -3.5. And that is with a relatively poor start.

Royce’s 6’4” plays bigger and faster than whatever Joe’s measurements are.

I think there are several stats that are eye-raising. I’m not overreacting to any one of them. I’m more focused on the full product I see on the court.

I’d be fine with starting Joe. I think that’s clear, right?

Faster I will agree with. Bigger, I disagree. Joe can actually hold off bigger sfs and pfs in the post (comparatively). I agree Royce plays bigger than his size.

It's all academic as Quin won't move Royce to the pine.

 

[slc]

Quin needs to play the matchups
If Ingles matches up better with other teams starter play him
If Royce matches up better start him
Neither guy has to start every game

 

[Nate505]

Fine.

That's almost all I have. Fine. Not amazing, yet the Jazz are pretty solid at home and the road, have the 3rd best record in the West, and are actually blowing teams out more often than not this year. A bit unlucky at time, and haven't really played great teams yet. I think Gay is a solid addition and will start to get better as he plays more games. He already provides a scoring option off the bench that can get his own shot. If Clarkson and Mitchell start to get back to shooting at a slightly respectable percentage the Jazz will win a lot of games this year.

 

[NAOS]

Steve Kerr just made a defensive substitution for the last 3 seconds of the 1st quarter. He did it in a flash and the players popped off the bench.

Everyone is responsible for creating a culture of valuing every possession.

Just thought I’d put this factoid in this thread.

 

[infection]

Steve Kerr just made a defensive substitution for the last 3 seconds of the 1st quarter. He did it in a flash and the players popped off the bench.

Everyone is responsible for creating a culture of valuing every possession.

Just thought I’d put this factoid in this thread.

Every possession is kind of extreme. What are the odds that using that challenge will be the difference between a win and a loss? What are the odds that putting up a shot with 2.4 seconds on the clock before the half, rather than just dribbling out the clock, will matter? Why close out a quarter strong when there’s a full 12 minutes left and you’ll get the first possession? If you’re that bad that you need to worry so much about every possession, then you’re not the team with the #1 offensive rating. It’s our advanced, amalgamated metrics that are going to carry us to a title, not our passion or “valuing possessions.” There are no blind spots to being a #1 offense.

 

[jom2003]

I mean just watch Suns versus the Warriors tonight and compare their game to the Jazz. I think it's pretty clear to see how we are doing and what we are still lacking.

 

[Jingled]

Suns are peaking too early IMO.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Jazz should be just 2 games back of the Ws and Suns. Lame-*** referee calls cost us two wins.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I mean just watch Suns versus the Warriors tonight and compare their game to the Jazz. I think it's pretty clear to see how we are doing and what we are still lacking.

They played with a playoff level of speed, intensity and physicality. I think most of our guys are pretty familiar with it. They should all be able to keep up, at least with the exception of Joe. This is the type of game that made Georges Niang completely useless. It would be really cool if the Jazz had a long, athletic defender on the wing, someone who is just plain bigger and longer than Royce. Maybe Rudy Gay is going to do that for us. Otherwise, it's the Jerami Grant archetype.

Keep an eye on Trent Forrest being the Jazz's version of Gary Payton II when the playoffs role around. Tough defense with an occasional surprising offensive play.

 

[Jingled]

They played with a playoff level of speed, intensity and physicality. I think most of our guys are pretty familiar with it. They should all be able to keep up, at least with the exception of Joe. This is the type of game that made Georges Niang completely useless. It would be really cool if the Jazz had a long, athletic defender on the wing, someone who is just plain bigger and longer than Royce. Maybe Rudy Gay is going to do that for us. Otherwise, it's the Jerami Grant archetype.

Keep an eye on Trent Forrest being the Jazz's version of Gary Payton II when the playoffs role around. Tough defense with an occasional surprising offensive play.

I would honestly be shocked if Forrest is in the rotation in the playoffs. I mean he can only get on the floor for 4 or 5 minutes a night during the regular season and the only reason he's even getting those minutes is to try and save some wear and tear on Mike and keep his minutes a little lower.

 

[jom2003]

Keep an eye on Trent Forrest being the Jazz's version of Gary Payton II when the playoffs role around. Tough defense with an occasional surprising offensive play.

Compete different players. Mentioned in the other thread. Payton II is more like a Bruce Brown type pseudo-guard who operates like a forward. Grabbing rebounds and hustling near the restricted area. Forrest is a true point guard who works best with the ball in his hand. He's even taken the ball-handling duty away from Butler during garbage time

 

[jom2003]

I would honestly be shocked if Forrest is in the rotation in the playoffs. I mean he can only get on the floor for 4 or 5 minutes a night during the regular season.

Forrestt is getting the early Niang treatment from Quin right now. Basically a carbon copy of Niang's early days in a jazz uniform. Everyone were like "what the hell is this guy doing on floor" then slowly witness the guy becoming a serviceable backup as his minutes trend up over the years.