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Bill Simmons: Jazz a lock to win over 43 games

Wes Mantooth said:
I think that's a pretty ****ty team. Ross and Valancuinas are rookies. Bargnani is a semi-stat-stuffing stiff who's a sieve defensively. Derozan's a mediocre wing who can't shoot to save his life and Lowry and Calderon are two below average point guards, though if Lowry regains his pre-illness form from last year, that changes a little. And the rest of that bench blows. Most importantly though is that those guys don't know how to win and losing's a very tough cancer to kick. I see 28-54.
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I agree. They'll be ****ty again.
 
Wes Mantooth said:
Brilliant.

Since you're so confident in the ****ty Raptors, let's make a bet on that 33. Anything you want...and I prefer money, not ***** *** sigs.
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great, so if Raps win 33 you pay me 100$ if they win less then that I pay you 100$. Deal?
 
NUMBERICA said:
You guys are aware that 54 games is the most wins a post Stockton/Malone team has ever won, right? Those Deron/Boozer teams were very good and sometimes great.

My point is it's not terribly likely that a team without a great ballhandler and whose current go-to option scores points at around the league average is going to be anywhere near as good. And the coach is very inexperienced.

Let's be reasonable. But I hope I'm wrong.
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Last year's record translates to @ 45 wins over 82 games. With a roster that didn't include a reliable true SF, 4 players in early development, a new coach, no offseason, a PG who only had his head in the game after 2 months, and almost zero ability to shoot from outside or stop penetrating guards.

This team has legitimate strengths held over from last season including rebounding, blocked shots and limited turnovers. This year additions address 3pt % and wing defense. Whether or not guards will keep consistently killing us remains to be seen but it was encouraging to have seen at least a smattering of zone inserted as this is probably the best way to keep Al close to the paint rather than drawn out in space constantly, and Mo's mindset/commitment is not an unknown.

Hard to say for sure that there are 55 wins on the schedule, NBA teams are tough. But they will be better. Maybe 5-8 games better rather than 10 but these guys are going to win more games.

I think that's reasonable.
 
NUMBERICA said:
You guys are aware that 54 games is the most wins a post Stockton/Malone team has ever won, right? Those Deron/Boozer teams were very good and sometimes great.

My point is it's not terribly likely that a team without a great ballhandler and whose current go-to option scores points at around the league average is going to be anywhere near as good. And the coach is very inexperienced.

Let's be reasonable. But I hope I'm wrong.
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The problem with the Deron/Boozer teams is that the Jazz rarely had a full squad. Either Boozer or AK was usually hurt. And the Jazz had inconsistent play at SG and generally weak benches.

2005-06: Record 41-41
Deron's (and CJ's) rookie seasons, AK played 69 games, Boozer only 33. Jarron Collins started 41 games, Ostertag 22. Palacio and McLeod started in a combined 50 games. Enough said.

2006-07: Record 51-31
Pretty healthy team with AK only missing 12 games and Boozer just 8. Collins still had a big role as a backup. And our starting SG was Derek Fisher. Remember how many times the opposing SG would go off for 30 or 40 pts?

2007-08: Record 54-28
Also a healthy year in terms of the starters, with Okur and AK missing 10 games each. Bench of Millsap, Harpring, Korver (who arrived via trade for Giricek), Miles and Price/Hart. Obviously a weakness at backup PG and defensively challenged inside with the Boozer/Memo tandem. Easy to understand why Utah won 54 games before poor outside shooting eventually doomed the Jazz in the playoffs.
2008-09: Record 48-34
Back to injury problems: Boozer missed 45 games, AK 15, Deron 14 and Memo 10 and Harpring 19.
2009-10: Record 53-29
Boozer in a contract year, Wesley Matthews going from undrafted to starter. AK missed 24, but with Matthews at SG, RB was able to fill in at SF. Very good team, but again, weak interior D and poor outside shooting overall.
 
AKMVP said:
great, so if Raps win 33 you pay me 100$ if they win less then that I pay you 100$. Deal?
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Uh, no if they win 34 or more I pay you $100. If they win 32 or less, you pay me. 33 is a push.

For the record, the line is 33.5 on the site I use but whatever. So yes, I'll take what I state above.
 
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