Here is the sad reality:
It takes luck to win a title.
I don't think that's a sad reality, I just think it's the complete and current reality for most if not all teams.
Here is the sad reality:
It takes luck to win a title.
As great as Hayward & Favors are (& Exum could be), it has essentially become a requirement for legitimate championship contenders to have multiple superstars. Hayward & Favors both appear to be secondary/complimentary players (a tier or 2 below elite) rather than actual superstars, & while Exum does look to have that type of potential, it's not only far from a guarantee to happen but from also far from happening (if it does). The closest thing to a superstar/franchise player/generational talent/etc on this roster is Gobert & therefore should be the focal point of the team & determining factor in how the roster is constructed. While Gobert is an elite defensive player, he isn't the traditional type of 2-way superstar who can win a championship singlehandedly, meaning (like all superstars these days) he will likely need another one to team up with (preferably an elite scorer & shooter who isn't a defensive liability).
The question comes down to strategy: do we a) attempt to win a title by putting together a starting 5 consisting entirely of all-star caliber players who compliment each other well yet lack that prototypical superstar like DET did or do we b) make a blockbuster trade in order to acquire that 2nd superstar to pair with Gobert? I know it's not that simple as it is rare that young superstars become available, but we certainly have the high-level assets necessary to make such a trade. As of right now, we appear to have 1 currently elite player (Gobert), a potentially elite talent (Exum), 2 all-star caliber players (Hayward & Favors), 2 potential fringe starters/6th men (Hood & Burks), & several other potential role-players (Burke, Cotton, Millsap, Ingles, & Booker), as well as a late lottery pick & several (likely) late future 1st rd picks.
So do we continue down the current path & hope that we find the caliber of offensive player that we will likely need to become legitimate contenders either in house or via FA/draft/(minor) trade or do we make an aggressive trade by packaging some of our most valuable assets? Despite not being a perfect fit alongside Gobert, Favors is the player (aside from Rudy) that I would be most reluctant to part with due to his steal of a contract. I love Hayward (& Exum's potential) & believe that he embodies what this franchise stands for, but the fact that he can (& almost assuredly will) opt out as the team projects to truly become championship caliber (if it stays it's current course) & will likely require the full max under the new salary cap makes me willing to part with him in the right deal. Obviously finding that right deal is the challenge, but we may have the type of assets to make some team an offer that they can't refuse & convince them to part with a player they otherwise wouldn't be willing to part with. I'm not saying any of the other teams would do it, but if we could somehow acquire a Curry/Harden type of offensive talent, I'd have to consider any package not including Gobert.
Some variation of Hayward/Favors/Exum/Hood/#12 + some of our lesser assets would cause any GM to think long & hard before hanging up, even if it was for an elite talent. For the record, I'm not advocating that we trade everyone except for Gobert & completely restart, just that I see Gobert as a generational defensive talent who, if paired with a generational offensive talent, could win multiple NBA Championships (given the right supporting cast) & that it would be worth taking a step back in the short-term to do so. I'm sure I'll catch some flack for suggesting this & know it's unlikely that any superstars are available, but I think that the presence of Rudy Gobert alone gives us a legitimate opportunity to win a title & that as of right now, we don't project to develop onto a championship caliber team (unless Exum turns into one of the best PG's in the league- which I'm not willing to bet the opportunity to win a title on, as much as I do believe in him & Hood becomes an 18-20 ppg scorer). Just feel that it's something that needs to be considered.
Who do u want to trade for Russell. The third pick is going to cost a lot. Not willing to trade favors or Hayward for Russ who isn't an upgrade by the way. Russ is a talent no doubt but if u want to trade either player for him u r understating Hayward and Favors.I figured I'd get this kind of response.
To those complaining about length of posts: Don't read them.
As far as it taking luck to win a title: I agree, but it's about giving yourself the best possible chance to get lucky, which I don't feel we are doing by creating an imbalanced roster. In this NBA, you need to be championship caliber on both sides of the ball. It's not enough to win on defense alone.
As far as Gobert being a 1-way player: What I meant was that he is a superstar on 1 side of the ball.
As far as calling Hayward/Favors complimentary players: I didn't mean this as an insult, was just saying that while great players, neither are going to win a championship on their own, & don't think Hayward, Favors, Gobert is a championship tandem without another elite scorer. Maybe Exum or Hood become that guy, but I wouldn't put all of our eggs in that basket.
As far as the draft: I think it's essential that we walk away with one of Russell or Hezonja as it is likely our last opportunity to acquire an elite offensive talent without making a major trade.
As far as some examples: There are 2 directions I'm which we could go- established or prospect. Obviously trading for an established superstar is unlikely, but HOU showed it's possible if the timing is right. Obviously Harden, Curry, etc isn't happening, but there's certain situations that I would keep on eye on. If CLE doesn't win & LBJ/Love leave, maybe they look to trade Irving & completely rebuild. If POR loses LA, maybe they trade Lillard & start over. Maybe one of the RFA guy's team doesn't want to pay that much & decide to do a S&T instead. All unlikely scenarios, but we need to keep an open mind & our ears to the ground so we don't miss out like we did on Harden. The more likely scenario is that we target a potentially elite offensive prospect such as Parker, Russell, Hezonja, etc.
I know these are all unlikely & while we are headed in the right direction, I'm not comfortable assuming that everything breaks right for us far as injuries, player development, etc. We're small market team, & if we're going to be different than other small market team & win a championship, we need an offensive superstar. SAS won theirs by landing Duncan (2-way superstar) & getting lucky with Parker & Manu. GSW has a chance to win one because they have an offensive generational talent & another offensive superstar to pair with an elite defender. Other than DET, who had a starting 5 entirely of all-stars who complimented each other perfectly & had a great balance of offense/defense (none of which we currently have), the past NBA Champions have all been big market teams with generational talents. We have a defensive generational talent, 2all-star caliber 2-way players, a high risk/high reward PG prospect, a potential starter, & a 6th man. If everything goes right, we have a chance to duplicate SET's championship run. If it doesn't, we are in the worst spot you can be (too good to draft a superstar, not good enough to win a championship, & too small market to sign a superstar). I just think Rudy Gobert combined with a top 10 scorer, along with a decent supporting cast, equals championship. We started the rebuild around Hayward, Favors, Kanter, & Burks, but then Gobert came out of nowhere & altered our rebuild. I feel we need to adapt, adjust, & build around Rudy.
Some people are so impatient. We are just learning what our team can do with a good coach and which players fit and which players don't. Last year, we learned Enes didn't fit and that Rudy and Rodney did. Now we need to see if Burks's return strengthens the team or weakens it. We need to see how high Exum can climb on his learning curve given a summer to work on his game. We need to know how best to play Hood, Hayward, and Burks together. We need to seriously upgrade our bench from d-leaguers, whether through FAs or the draft. Ingles may be a good player to have on the bench, but I'd rather we didn't need him to play in our normal rotation.
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We shouldn't trade any of our players until we clearly know our weaknesses. Yes, our outside shooting is a huge weakness, but did Hood fix this problem or not? It's hard to say since he didn't begin to shine until late in the season. And if Hood doesn't solve our 3-point woes, then how do we shore it up without sacrificing the defensive strides we made last year? Personally, I would like to see us in a few post-season games before deciding which players need replacing.
U do realize Ingles was shooting over 40% from three after the break and was getting 10 points off the bench and our best playmaker off the bench right and u know he didn't hurt us at all defensively right? He belongs in any championship contending team. Meat part about Ingles is his iq and plays hard every game
Harden had to sign an extension which means he had control over where he went and I am pretty damn certain he didn't want to come here.
I agree. I will, however, point out a key thing about Ingles (and Booker to a lesser degree.) DL and Snyder are both disciples of the "Spurs" model of business. Atlanta has tried to replicate this as well, and have been fairly successful at it.Yes, Ingles was a solid performer for our team last year, which is why I want him on our team next year. But we will not be a championship contender if he is our best playmaker off the bench.