California In Play


babe

Well-Known Member
I like “Truimp”. Is that a contraction of the words “true” and “imp”? Because I agree.

yah. I saw that typo too, right after I made the post. Not worth a second thought.

But since you take such impish delight in trying to see something in it, I edited the post for clarity. I hope that doesn't confuse you or anything.
 


Red

Well-Known Member
Curveball...



The year 2020 has been kind to Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.

The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical modeling unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Trump is not a strategist. He’s emotional and off-the-cuff—and that’s it. He isn’t deep enough to get your socks wet in.

And neither does he share spotlight or cede spotlight.

So the quoted post is just not good vis-a-vis reality.

You fail to see the reality that exists.

Just reflecting on your pick for a handle, it evokes Marxist or Cloward-Piven sorts of connections...... The sort of thinking that goes along with deliberately destroying the existing order on the presumption that you can then create a new sort of human being who will of course just comply with your basement fantasies of what the world should be.

In my estimation of things, people who idealize a "Failed State" as an ideal passage to a Utopia where people somehow are fundamentally no longer "human" as we know the term, are hardly the sort of "thinkers" who should criticize anyone else's ideas of "reality."
 

babe

Well-Known Member
Curveball...



The year 2020 has been kind to Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.

The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical modeling unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention


Thank you for sharing this.

Really.

It's a well-written article about a Russian mathematician's social modeling results, which is quite exactly my entire theme in JFC.

We have a lot of wannabe somebodies in here with connections to the Establishment that so far have kept them toadying up to the expectations of their circus masters, but really...... there just isn't room for all the eggheads on that damn wall. One by one, all the Humpty Dumptys are gonna take that fall, and all the Kings horses and all the Kings men won't even bother trying to glue them back together again.

I know all about that.

Sooner or later you're all gonna be babes like me.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
So, I was thinking of updating the election fraud thread, but this fits here.....

Currents stats from official sources on California:

Population 39.4 M

Non-citizen total 4.8M
Of these 2.2 M are "undocumented', or here without legal authorization, and presumably 2.6 M do have "documents" supporting their legal status for living here.

22.5%, or about 9 M are under age 18. No figures on how this breaks out with respect to noncitizen/citizen, but may I assume it averages out about like citizens generally..... So I conclude about 30M adults and over 3M of those are non-citizen....... so 27 M eligible voters, minus convicts(?"

And the Sec of State reports almost 24 M registered voters. That's less than 3M eligibles who did not register, or a high 80s%.

The CA secretary of state estimated 86% of eligible CA residents did register or were registered.

Actual votes tabulated, per Thriller above, was about 16M, or about 67% voter turnout.

The search for anomalies begins here......

So far, it all looks about right.
 

One Brow

Well-Known Member
Here you admit that you look at where something leads, or what it means, before being willing to recognize it as a "fact".
No, I did not. I said that facts are only meaningful when interpreted, and I often disagree with people on interpretation.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
yah. I saw that typo too, right after I made the post. Not worth a second thought.

But since you take such impish delight in trying to see something in it, I edited the post for clarity. I hope that doesn't confuse you or anything.
Don’t worry, I didn’t give it a second thought. You saw my first one.
 

FAILED STATE

Well-Known Member
You fail to see the reality that exists.

Just reflecting on your pick for a handle, it evokes Marxist or Cloward-Piven sorts of connections...... The sort of thinking that goes along with deliberately destroying the existing order on the presumption that you can then create a new sort of human being who will of course just comply with your basement fantasies of what the world should be.

In my estimation of things, people who idealize a "Failed State" as an ideal passage to a Utopia where people somehow are fundamentally no longer "human" as we know the term, are hardly the sort of "thinkers" who should criticize anyone else's ideas of "reality."
I’m not reveling in this failed state. Not urging it on. Nor do I see it as some sort of Marxist phase in the march toward utopia.

Just calling the present tense as I see it.... Not immediately after I saw it this way, but after I took a fair amount of measure and saw how the forces making it thus were intractable in the short-term. And getting worse.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
I’m not reveling in this failed state. Not urging it on. Nor do I see it as some sort of Marxist phase in the march toward utopia.

Just calling the present tense as I see it.... Not immediately after I saw it this way, but after I took a fair amount of measure and saw how the forces making it thus were intractable in the short-term. And getting worse.
Conservatives generally would agree with the label in the present tense, but I suspect for reasons much different than your own.....

fears more of such things as government dysfunction, oversize, impossible regulatory regime, every liberal agenda item on the horizon, departures from constitutional principles and checks on unrestrained governance including environmental and economic measures for climate crisis and social justice, overpopulation, and excessive corporate influence trending towards fascism, failure to check Chinese programs tp exert world power in every conceivable manner.....

I don't know you at all, but being here sorta predisposes me to see your view as alarmist regarding impending doom for failures to implement "science" to avert climate catastrophe, racism, overpopulation, health orders, and international concords to fix everything.

In short, your version of "Failed State" would be nicely summed up as another four years of Trump.
 

babe

Well-Known Member
We will keep trying to help you, regardless.

It is a human feat of indescribable triumph that humans have the capacity to be so polarized in basic views.

"It was the best of times, the worst of times...." (A Tale of Two Cities)/.

Plus still have a sense of humor.
 

Gameface

1-20-21
Contributor
2018 Award Winner
It is a human feat of indescribable triumph that humans have the capacity to be so polarized in basic views.

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...." (A Tale of Two Cities - Charles Dickens)/.

Plus still have a sense of humor.
fixed
 

Top