yah. I saw that typo too, right after I made the post. Not worth a second thought.
But since you take such impish delight in trying to see something in it, I edited the post for clarity. I hope that doesn't confuse you or anything.
California In Play
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yah. I saw that typo too, right after I made the post. Not worth a second thought.
But since you take such impish delight in trying to see something in it, I edited the post for clarity. I hope that doesn't confuse you or anything.
Red
Well-Known Member
Curveball...
www.theatlantic.com
The year 2020 has been kind to Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical modeling unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention
The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.
www.theatlantic.com
The year 2020 has been kind to Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical modeling unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention
You fail to see the reality that exists.
Just reflecting on your pick for a handle, it evokes Marxist or Cloward-Piven sorts of connections...... The sort of thinking that goes along with deliberately destroying the existing order on the presumption that you can then create a new sort of human being who will of course just comply with your basement fantasies of what the world should be.
In my estimation of things, people who idealize a "Failed State" as an ideal passage to a Utopia where people somehow are fundamentally no longer "human" as we know the term, are hardly the sort of "thinkers" who should criticize anyone else's ideas of "reality."
Curveball...
The Next Decade Could Be Even Worse
A historian believes he has discovered iron laws that predict the rise and fall of societies. He has bad news.
The year 2020 has been kind to Turchin, for many of the same reasons it has been hell for the rest of us. Cities on fire, elected leaders endorsing violence, homicides surging—to a normal American, these are apocalyptic signs. To Turchin, they indicate that his models, which incorporate thousands of years of data about human history, are working. (“Not all of human history,” he corrected me once. “Just the last 10,000 years.”) He has been warning for a decade that a few key social and political trends portend an “age of discord,” civil unrest and carnage worse than most Americans have experienced. In 2010, he predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions. His models, which track these factors in other societies across history, are too complicated to explain in a nontechnical publication. But they’ve succeeded in impressing writers for nontechnical publications, and have won him comparisons to other authors of “megahistories,” such as Jared Diamond and Yuval Noah Harari. The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat had once found Turchin’s historical modeling unpersuasive, but 2020 made him a believer: “At this point,” Douthat recently admitted on a podcast, “I feel like you have to pay a little more attention
Thank you for sharing this.
Really.
It's a well-written article about a Russian mathematician's social modeling results, which is quite exactly my entire theme in JFC.
We have a lot of wannabe somebodies in here with connections to the Establishment that so far have kept them toadying up to the expectations of their circus masters, but really...... there just isn't room for all the eggheads on that damn wall. One by one, all the Humpty Dumptys are gonna take that fall, and all the Kings horses and all the Kings men won't even bother trying to glue them back together again.
I know all about that.
Sooner or later you're all gonna be babes like me.
So, I was thinking of updating the election fraud thread, but this fits here.....
Currents stats from official sources on California:
Population 39.4 M
Non-citizen total 4.8M
Of these 2.2 M are "undocumented', or here without legal authorization, and presumably 2.6 M do have "documents" supporting their legal status for living here.
22.5%, or about 9 M are under age 18. No figures on how this breaks out with respect to noncitizen/citizen, but may I assume it averages out about like citizens generally..... So I conclude about 30M adults and over 3M of those are non-citizen....... so 27 M eligible voters, minus convicts(?"
And the Sec of State reports almost 24 M registered voters. That's less than 3M eligibles who did not register, or a high 80s%.
The CA secretary of state estimated 86% of eligible CA residents did register or were registered.
Actual votes tabulated, per Thriller above, was about 16M, or about 67% voter turnout.
The search for anomalies begins here......
So far, it all looks about right.
Currents stats from official sources on California:
Population 39.4 M
Non-citizen total 4.8M
Of these 2.2 M are "undocumented', or here without legal authorization, and presumably 2.6 M do have "documents" supporting their legal status for living here.
22.5%, or about 9 M are under age 18. No figures on how this breaks out with respect to noncitizen/citizen, but may I assume it averages out about like citizens generally..... So I conclude about 30M adults and over 3M of those are non-citizen....... so 27 M eligible voters, minus convicts(?"
And the Sec of State reports almost 24 M registered voters. That's less than 3M eligibles who did not register, or a high 80s%.
The CA secretary of state estimated 86% of eligible CA residents did register or were registered.
Actual votes tabulated, per Thriller above, was about 16M, or about 67% voter turnout.
The search for anomalies begins here......
So far, it all looks about right.
One Brow
Well-Known Member
We will keep trying to help you, regardless.
One Brow
Well-Known Member
No, I did not. I said that facts are only meaningful when interpreted, and I often disagree with people on interpretation.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
Don’t worry, I didn’t give it a second thought. You saw my first one.
NAOS
Well-Known Member
I’m not reveling in this failed state. Not urging it on. Nor do I see it as some sort of Marxist phase in the march toward utopia.
Just calling the present tense as I see it.... Not immediately after I saw it this way, but after I took a fair amount of measure and saw how the forces making it thus were intractable in the short-term. And getting worse.
Conservatives generally would agree with the label in the present tense, but I suspect for reasons much different than your own.....
fears more of such things as government dysfunction, oversize, impossible regulatory regime, every liberal agenda item on the horizon, departures from constitutional principles and checks on unrestrained governance including environmental and economic measures for climate crisis and social justice, overpopulation, and excessive corporate influence trending towards fascism, failure to check Chinese programs tp exert world power in every conceivable manner.....
I don't know you at all, but being here sorta predisposes me to see your view as alarmist regarding impending doom for failures to implement "science" to avert climate catastrophe, racism, overpopulation, health orders, and international concords to fix everything.
In short, your version of "Failed State" would be nicely summed up as another four years of Trump.
It is a human feat of indescribable triumph that humans have the capacity to be so polarized in basic views.
"It was the best of times, the worst of times...." (A Tale of Two Cities)/.
Plus still have a sense of humor.
fixed
Thanks for the technical support.
With the general complaints now being fleshed out about our election fraud institutional biases and the whole damn culture of lying and cheating, most efficiently worked by the Dems presently, my general sense of California being about 58% real democrats, with stringalong voters who don't understand enough to realize they don't really wanna be Dems maybe 4% of that, there's room to figure that fake registrations or unqualified registrations might be 2% -6% of all CA registered "voters", maybe most of those fake voters being ghost voted by the players.
That would be over a million fake votes cast in CA alone. Could be much more. That's the basis for my "conspiracy theory" that CA alone "wins" for the Dems by dishonesty. 2M fake votes likely.
When you have a Secretary of State bragging about 76% registration stats in 2016, but after a number of Judicial Watch lawsuits win in court and/or are settled by an agreement to cull out registrants who no longer can be found at their registration address, and then in 2020 the Secretary of State quietly admits that registration is only 67% of eligible voters, you have to believe the voting was run up with cheating. Just a little more careful about it now.
I've been looking at PA recently. Most major cities with long-standing Democratic control are going to be proven fake vote rackets. Easily 6M fake Dem votes nationwide, or 4% of votes counted.
fishonjazz
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So the 6M applies only to dem votes, correct? Because there is a huge conspiracy that involves all democratic state legislature and governors and secretary of state, even in the republican controlled states that have also certified the vote and called for it to end, right? And the Republicans in these cases were all paid off as part of the Grand Conspiracy, correct? And this is all so easily covered up because everyone is in on it, so not a single clerk or secretary or disgruntled postal worker or republican election official can smuggle out the tiniest shred of evidence because it is so expertly orchestrated at all levels, right? Even snowden couldn't find anything if he tried, right, because it is so well covered up? Amazing. The most complete and perfect conspiracy ever in the history of the US happening right before us! And of course the lack of evidence is actually evidence in and of itself, right? I mean for there to be absolutely 0 evidence at all is pretty damn sketchy if you ask me. It has to be a result of the cleaners doing their job, making it a little "too" clean, am I right? It's all so amazing!! I mean it almost, almost mind you! Almost sounds a little, I don't know, crazy maybe? But that's the rub, right? They make it sound crazy as part of the amazing cover-up! It's so perfect it almost defies all logic!
Or does it?
Red
Well-Known Member
It’s much simpler than you’re making it out to be. President Trump attempted to steal the election, while, at the same time, insisting that the election had been stolen by the Democrats. The Democrats did no such thing. Trump simply lost the popular vote, and the electoral college.
But, he said, ages ago, and has repeated it ever since, that if he lost, it could only be because the election was rigged. Bearing in mind that he can never admit to being wrong, and is determined to remain in power, he must fall back on the “rigged election” claim, while he himself tries to rig the election by getting Republican legislatures to pick electors that do not reflect the will of the people in their states.
And he’s doing it right in our face.
He is attempting to rig the election in plain sight.
There simply is no time for a more sophisticated, less transparent, less apparent, less visible attempt at theft of the election. And he has no respect for our democratic institutions anyway. He never has. So, he’s left with a blatant, in your face, effort to steal the election. Which we all know is certainly not beneath him.
Now do you see why so many Americans felt he was not fit to be president of this nation?
You're just making **** up. This is toddler level BS.
Avery
Well-Known Member
Shouldn’t this be sent over to Rudy and his team immediately?