calijazz
Winner of the 2011 Jazzfanz mock draft contest
I see your point. But it's one of many factors that sway my gut one way or another. It's all a gamble and you go with your gut - after you try and look at the gamble from every angle and calculate pot odds, etc. So Cyclo's comparison of the college stats of a couple pros makes me feel like I have absorbed another factor before making a gut decision. But maybe, as you say, those numbers won't really tell me anything anyway. ...My guts are totally upset. This year I'm not sure of anything. Well, I feel pretty sure Aldridge will be pretty good. But will someone else like Whiteside, in a year or so, be so much better? I DON'T KNOW!!
Aldrich has work ethic and high bbIQ. This calms my gut a bit. But Whiteside might become even better defensively AND offensively. My gut goes outta wack again.
Going with the gambling metaphor, what do we give up opting for the Aldrich pot over the Whiteside pot? Aldrich looks better now but how will the two pots look in a year or two? Which one do we want to invest the #9 pick in? ...I'm flummoxed.
My gut is unsure about Aldrich in comparison to a supposedly higher upside guy like Whiteside. My gut is pretty unsure about Whiteside in comparison to supposedly solid with low ceiling guy like Aldrich. In actuality, what says that is Aldrich's ceiling is low? Cali, who would you predict Aldrich's game is comparable to in the pros? I just don't know. And your gut tells you Aldrich is your guy.
Will Whiteside become Kevin Garnett? there are things that say "No way" and other things that say "the talent's there." Will Aldrich become Ostertag? No. No, he won't. There's no question about that. Will he become Pryzbilla? Maybe? Will he become Shaq? I dunno.
I'm gonna stop now as I feel I've sufficiently demonstrated my lack of confidence in feeling good about any player.
I can understand your dilemma. This is a pick that has been anticipated for several years, so you want to see it maximized. I look at it in a different way, I just don't want to see the pick wasted chasing "potential". More often than not, those type of picks just don't pan out. You have to get lucky when picking out of the top 5 especially. I just convinced myself awhile back that expecting a superstar with the #9 pick in the draft isn't realistic. Particularly with this draft, which isn't particularly deep with potential star players. I'm convinced that picking the safe player who may not be a superstar is acceptable. Especially if it's a player like Aldrich that fills a desperate weakness of the Jazz and just overall feels like a very solid fit with the team. Whiteside has WAY to many red flags for me. He is the very definition of a raw prospect. He's at least 3-4 years from contributing at all in a best case scenario. Drafting the right player is hard enough...pick someone that you know you will at least get something out of. With Whiteside that's FAR from a sure thing.
As far as a player comparable to Aldrich in the NBA...I could see him having similar production to Al Horford with better shot blocking (12-15 PPG, 10+ RPG, 2+ BPG). Not a superstar, but a very solid starter for a long time.