Colton's 2014 Mock Draft Compilation, v. 1.0

[colton]

Welcome to Colton's 2014 Mock Draft Compilation, v. 1.0. Here are who the mock drafts are listing as the "best players". See below for details. It should give a pretty good idea of who will be available when the Jazz pick at 5, 23 and 35. I'll try to do this at least once more before the draft.

1 Andrew Wiggins
2 Jabari Parker
3 Dante Exum
4 Joel Embid
5 Marcus Smart
6 Noah Vonleh
7 Julius Randle
8 Aaron Gordon
9 Doug McDermott
10 Nik Stauskas
11 Dario Saric
12 Gary Harris
13 Adreian Payne
14 Rodney Hood
15 James Young
16 Zach LaVine
17 Elfrid Payton
18 T.J. Warren
19 Tyler Ennis
20 Kyle Anderson
21 Jusuf Nurkic
22 Clint Capela
22 Shabazz Napier
24 P.J. Hairston
25 Jerami Grant
26 K.J. McDaniels
27 Cleanthony Early
28 Jordan Clarkson
29 Glenn Robinson III
30 Jordan Adams
31 Mitch McGary
32 Jarnell Stokes
33 C.J. Wilcox
34 Patric Young
35 Walter Taveres
36 Bogdan Bogdanovic

Misc observations:

1. 8 of the 11 mock drafts have us taking Vonleh at #5. 2 have us picking Randle, and only 1 have us picking Gordon.

2. The best player who might be available at #23 seems to be James Young (2 mocks have him available then). More reasonable might be Kyle Anderson (5 mocks have him available then).

3. The best player who might be available at #35 seems to be Kyle Anderson (2 mocks have him available then). More reasonable might be Jordan Clarkson, Glen Robinson III, and Jordan Adams (4, 4, and 5 mocks say they'll be available, respectively).

4. 4 of the 11 mocks think Embid will still be on the board at #5, and none of those 4 think the Jazz will pick him.

5. No one has Embid falling past #6.

6. Zach LeVine wins the wild card award, with his projections being anywhere from #7 to #27.


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Ranking details: I used the following mock drafts as "voters" for the best players. That is, I assumed they ranked the players in the order that they felt like the players deserved to be drafted. (This is an incorrect assumption, because some mock drafts account for perceived team need, but it should be close.) Then I used the "instant run-off voting" algorithm in a program I wrote to deduce who deserved to be ranked in the top spot, then in the second spot, then in the third spot, and so forth. See here for details on that algorithm: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting

Mock drafts used:
https://www.hoopsaddict.com/random/nba-draft/2014-nba-mock-draft/ Jun 22
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...014-solid-selections-for-every-1st-round-team Jun 22
https://www.sheridanhoops.com/category/draft/ Jun 21
https://www.sportingnews.com/nba/st...-wiggins-jabari-parker-joel-embiid-cavs-76ers Jun 21
https://walterfootball.com/nbadraft2014mock.php Jun 20
https://www.nbadraft.net/2014mock_draft Jun 20
https://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2014/ Jun 20
https://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2014-nba-mock-draft.html Jun 20
https://www.insidehoops.com/nba-mock-draft.shtml Jun 20
https://msn.foxsports.com/ohio/story/nba-mock-draft-jabari-parker-andrew-wiggins-joel-embiid-062014 Jun 20
https://www.nbadraftinsider.com/2014-nba-draft-prospects/2014-nba-mock-draft/ Jun 19



If there are mocks you'd like me to include next time, please let me know. And if anyone wants to PM me Chad Ford's most recent mock, I'll include that as well.*

*edit: got it now, at least the Jun 19 version.

 

[Stifle Tower]

Does no good to give you rep, but much appreciated. I think Embiid falls HARD on draft day.

 

[Tarkanian]

my "complements" for a job well done.
enjoyed reading it.

add on: Embid will fall. I think, even at 23rd he might be available.

 

[8]

Christ will come down on a flying pig before Embiid falls out of the top 10.

 

[colton]

Does no good to give you rep, but much appreciated.

Sure it does. People can still accumulate rep even if their rep power is maxed out.

 

[mellow]

I look forward to Colton's compilation every year. This years is exciting because there are players I like available at 23 and 35.


Colton, have you ever tracked the accuracy of the compilation compared to the actual draft results?

 

[Deleted member 365]

My complaments.

Thank you

 

[colton]

Colton, have you ever tracked the accuracy of the compilation compared to the actual draft results?

I've done that at least once. It was not super accurate, but more accurate than many of the individual mock drafts. And not as accurate as the most accurate of the mocks.

 

[colton]

My complaments.

*spelling causes colton's head to explode*

(and yes, I realize you probably did that deliberately)

 

[Game6Conley]

All Signs point to Noah Vonleh.

also well done on Walter Taveras @35 he has DeAndre Jordan type upside in the 2nd round, a major diamond in the rough candidate. He also hasnt missed a game in 2 seasons.

 

[mellow]

I've done that at least once. It was not super accurate, but more accurate than many of the individual mock drafts. And not as accurate as the most accurate of the mocks.

Oh, so your model is just average.

 

[Jeffrey32]

Christ will come down on a flying pig before Embiid falls out of the top 10.

Based on what happened to Nerlens Noel last year, I think you might be right.